Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 03:55 AM
From NASA:
There's been an issue with the booster from today’s launch. Teams have been in contact with the crew.
After lifting off on time at 4:40 a.m. EDT, the Soyuz-FG rocket carrying the Soyuz MS-10 crew of Aleksey Ovchinin with Roscosmos and Nick Hague of NASA encountered an issue after first stage separation. NASA is reporting that the Soyuz is on a ballistic re-entry mode.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 04:02 AM
Search and rescue teams are in the air and it is expected they will take about an hour and a half to reach where the Soyuz is expected to have touched down. No word yet on the status of the crew.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 04:20 AM
Per Roscosmos, via NASA, search and rescue teams are in contact with the crew, they have landed east of the Kazakh town of Dzhezkazgan and are reported to be in good condition.
Altidude Member
Posts: 57 From: Registered: Jan 2016
posted 10-11-2018 04:48 AM
Video of the launch:
Henry Heatherbank Member
Posts: 244 From: Adelaide, South Australia Registered: Apr 2005
posted 10-11-2018 04:54 AM
Not being flippant, but does anybody know the altitude reached in the ballistic abort. In other words, did Nick Hague pass 50 miles to earn his gold pin?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 04:57 AM
The anomaly was reported at an altitude of about 28 miles (45 kilometers), well short of the Kármán line.
cspg Member
Posts: 6210 From: Geneva, Switzerland Registered: May 2006
posted 10-11-2018 05:15 AM
Launch anomaly = launch failure.
Philip Member
Posts: 5952 From: Brussels, Belgium Registered: Jan 2001
posted 10-11-2018 05:21 AM
Just after the escape tower jettison?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 05:44 AM
Yes, shortly after first stage separation and escape tower jettison.
quote:Originally posted by cspg: Launch anomaly = launch failure.
Anomaly is in reference to the fact that we do not yet know the cause of the failure.
cspg Member
Posts: 6210 From: Geneva, Switzerland Registered: May 2006
posted 10-11-2018 05:56 AM
But the booster failed to deliver its payload to the planned orbit/destination, no matter what the anomaly was.
posted 10-11-2018 06:38 AM
Congratulations to the Russian launch team and all those involved for successfully averting a tragedy of the first magnitude. Once again we are reminded that space exploration is a risky business, not for the faint hearted.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 06:55 AM
Roscosmos photos of Aleksey Ovchinin and Nick Hague after their recovery:
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 07:45 AM
Statement from Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov of Russia (via Twitter):
Manned launches will be suspended after the Soyuz spacecraft launch incident.
The Soyuz situation requires investigation into the causes of the incident and possibly certain personnel decisions. For now, all that can be said is that the emergency rescue system worked effectively, which is very important.
The American side will be updated on the Soyuz incident details. Russia will not hide the causes of the accident from the United States, as our country delivers crews to the ISS and will definitely fulfill its responsibilities.
OV-105 Member
Posts: 816 From: Ridgecrest, CA Registered: Sep 2000
posted 10-11-2018 07:49 AM
So will that make Hague the first NASA astronaut since Gus Grissom for his first flight to be sub-orbital?
328KF Member
Posts: 1234 From: Registered: Apr 2008
posted 10-11-2018 07:56 AM
Suborbital yes, but as mentioned above, not even a "space" flight. So most likely in a category of its own, much like a pad abort or an escape tower abort shortly after launch.
They did report being weightless after the booster cutoff, but it would be a stretch, I think, to call this a suborbital spaceflight.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 08:16 AM
Images from Russian media (via Twitter):
Posts: 3120 From: Belfast, United Kingdom Registered: Feb 2002
posted 10-11-2018 08:31 AM
It is a great relief to see the two men looking fit and well, but Nick Hague is surely entitled to be thinking: "After 45 years of successful launches — why me?" *
*I'm not counting Soyux T-10: that was a launch pad fire, not an unsuccessful launch.
Delta7 Member
Posts: 1505 From: Bluffton IN USA Registered: Oct 2007
posted 10-11-2018 08:38 AM
It or something was bound to happen sooner or later. I'm just glad the crew is ok. A clear illustration of why we need to get the CCVs up and operational. Having all your eggs in one basket is never advisable.
1202 Alarm Member
Posts: 436 From: Switzerland & France Registered: Nov 2003
posted 10-11-2018 09:01 AM
Something is bound to happen sooner or later in any space program.
quote:Originally posted by Blackarrow: "After 45 years of successful launches — why me?"
Maybe, but at least when a Soyuz has an anomaly, a major malfunction or whatever semantic suits best, since the loss of Volkov, Dobrovolski and Patsaïev 47 years ago, they were all able to come home alive.
(And not 45 but 43 years since Soyuz 18a. I would count T-10 too, because if it's "not an unsuccessful" launch, I wonder what is was.)
issman1 Member
Posts: 1042 From: UK Registered: Apr 2005
posted 10-11-2018 09:15 AM
I'm old enough to remember the Challenger and Columbia disasters. Thankfully, MS-10 was a happy conclusion. It will be interesting to see how American politicians and people react.
MrSpace86 Member
Posts: 1618 From: Gardner, KS, USA Registered: Feb 2003
posted 10-11-2018 09:25 AM
We are not that old!
Any word on how the suspension of flights will affect the crewed presence of the ISS? Does this also affect Progress resupply flights?
David C Member
Posts: 1015 From: Lausanne Registered: Apr 2012
posted 10-11-2018 09:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by Robert Pearlman: The anomaly was reported at an altitude of about 28 miles (45 kilometers), well short of the Kármán line.
Out of curiosity where did you get that altitude from Robert? The predictor graphic (obviously not actual telemetry), showed an altitude of about 80km at the first report. And of course they were still coasting upwards.
Ovchinin sounded very cool. Glad to see they both look well.
Headshot Member
Posts: 864 From: Vancouver, WA, USA Registered: Feb 2012
posted 10-11-2018 09:43 AM
Silly question at this time, but is the United States owed another seat on a Soyuz? This launch/mission obviously failed to deliver our astronaut to the ISS.
Hart Sastrowardoyo Member
Posts: 3445 From: Toms River, NJ Registered: Aug 2000
posted 10-11-2018 09:53 AM
"It is not known whether this will affect Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques' launch date of December 20, 2018," the Canadian Space Agency said in a release.
Blackarrow Member
Posts: 3120 From: Belfast, United Kingdom Registered: Feb 2002
posted 10-11-2018 09:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by Headshot: ...is the United States owed another seat on a Soyuz?
You would need to look at the fine print in the contract between the two space agencies.
oly Member
Posts: 905 From: Perth, Western Australia Registered: Apr 2015
posted 10-11-2018 10:11 AM
The most important thing is the crew are both safe.
The video shows as the booster engine separation that the crew are tumbled inside the spacecraft. This oscillation does not represent a stable trajectory. The "predictor graphic" shows 1848 m/sec (9652km/h or 4133 mph) velocity, altitude 58km (36 miles) and 71km (41 miles) downrange. At this velocity, if the main engine cut at this point, the spacecraft would have coasted upward for some time, however, an engine can still be seen running after this, so the 50 mile limit may have been crossed. The weightless period would be at apogee.
It is up to the Russians to determine what happened and why now.
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 10:41 AM
quote:Originally posted by David C: Out of curiosity where did you get that altitude from Robert?
That was the altitude given by NASA PAO, citing Roscosmos, at the point of the anomaly. There is a press conference at the top of the hour when we may learn more details.
Neil DC Member
Posts: 140 From: Middletown, NJ, USA Registered: May 2010
posted 10-11-2018 10:59 AM
It is amazing to see the Soyuz capsule unscorched on landing. I am sure the Russians will find a way to repurpose it.
The launch schedule was already tight for squeezing two flights in this year. I guess they could try the next manned one early next year. Perhaps an unmanned Soyuz launch in between to replace the aging one they have up there and test the launcher. Just one possible scenario. It will be interesting to see what they do.
PowerCat Member
Posts: 193 From: Herington, KS, USA Registered: Feb 2006
posted 10-11-2018 11:03 AM
So glad that both crew members are safe. Was up watching this morning live with Nick being a Kansas astronaut and I too was concerned when things on the video suddenly didn't look right.
Lots of short term and long term decisions will need to be made. Two spacewalks probably postponed so do the six batteries in the HTV-7 craft go on an external storage platform? If the cause of today's failure is discovered quickly and can be repaired or eliminated, can this crew launch in December and subsequent crews slide out one launch? Can the current Soyuz in orbit be extended past 215 days or not?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 11:09 AM
At a press conference just now, Kenny Todd, NASA's International Space Station operations integration manager, said NASA is going to review the spacewalk plan going forward.
NASA is going to let Roscosmos convene its commission and carry out its investigation. As of today, with two months before the next scheduled launch, NASA is going to wait before deciding on any alternate plans for the crew currently aboard the space station.
Nick Hague will fly again, but when that will be is still to be decided.
Todd is confident that, if necessary, the space station could be flown without a crew for a significant amount of time.
quote:Originally posted by Robert Pearlman: That was the altitude given by NASA PAO, citing Roscosmos, at the point of the anomaly.
Reid Wiseman just reaffirmed that the anomaly occurred at about 50 kilometers (30 miles) based on the available data.
quote:Originally posted by Headshot: ...is the United States owed another seat on a Soyuz?
Per Todd, he isn't sure what the flight agreement entails and couldn't comment on the payment details.
quote:Originally posted by MrSpace86: Does this also affect Progress resupply flights?
Per Todd, the investigation will need to define the relevant similarities between the Progress and Soyuz flights. With the recent arrival of JAXA's HTV-7, the space station is fine with consumables (and they still have use of Cygnus and Dragon flights, if needed).
Neil DC Member
Posts: 140 From: Middletown, NJ, USA Registered: May 2010
posted 10-11-2018 11:31 AM
I would be very surprised if they flew it unmanned for any period of time. I am sure the Gerst crew would be prepared to carry on for an extended period of time if need be. Just a matter of getting them a new Soyuz.
They have launched and docked these without crew a few times before. Prokopyev could probably carry out the docking remotely as they have done for Progess.
issman1 Member
Posts: 1042 From: UK Registered: Apr 2005
posted 10-11-2018 12:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by PowerCat: Two spacewalks probably postponed so do the six batteries in the HTV-7 craft go on an external storage platform?
I understand that the pallet containing the new batteries will be restowed in HTV-7 with the old batteries, then burn up with it. So unless the battery swap occurs, and the two EVAs, HTV-7 would have to stay longer. Possible delay for SpaceX CRS-16 which needs Harmony port that HTV-7 attached to?
moorouge Member
Posts: 2454 From: U.K. Registered: Jul 2009
posted 10-11-2018 02:32 PM
quote:Originally posted by Blackarrow: "After 45 years of successful launches — why me?"
I'm almost certain that there was one Soyuz launch that had to abort before orbit was reached, the crew landing somewhere near the border with China. Anyone to refresh my memory?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 02:47 PM
It is mentioned in today's article:
In April 1975, cosmonauts Vasili Lazarev and Oleg Makarov were five minutes into their ascent at an altitude of 90 miles (145 kilometers) when their Soyuz rocket's second and third stages failed to separate. The crew experienced upwards of 21 times the force of gravity on their descent, but survived the landing.
Blackarrow Member
Posts: 3120 From: Belfast, United Kingdom Registered: Feb 2002
posted 10-11-2018 02:54 PM
That was the 5th April, 1975 launch of Soyuz 18-1, all of 43 years ago (sorry about my miscalculation in an earlier post!). It could have had a big impact on ASTP, due only three and a half months later.
Fortunately, the Soviet authorities satisfied the Americans that they had used an older booster for the Soyuz 18-1 mission, but would be using a nice shiny new "modernized" booster for ASTP. (Great if your name was Leonov or Kubasov, but I've often wondered what other Soviet cosmonauts thought about that!)
SpaceAngel Member
Posts: 307 From: Maryland Registered: May 2010
posted 10-11-2018 05:47 PM
What are the odds of the Russian space agency finding out the cause of this mishap as well as getting the Soyuz back on track?
Robert Pearlman Editor
Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
posted 10-11-2018 06:38 PM
One hundred percent. Russia has been flying Soyuz for 50 years. Roscosmos knows how to investigate a failure and how to recover from it. It is only a matter of how long the investigation will take and how long any needed changes will take to implement.
Hart Sastrowardoyo Member
Posts: 3445 From: Toms River, NJ Registered: Aug 2000
posted 10-11-2018 06:47 PM
A Progress reached LEO but failed to dock with ISS in April 2015. That June Roscosmos announced they found the cause of the failure. In July they flew another Progress which successfully docked with space station.
quote:Originally posted by Neil DC: I am sure the Russians will find a way to repurpose it.
If you believe Wikipedia, the Soyuz descent module used in the Soyuz T-10A abort was later used on Soyuz T-15.
SpaceAngel Member
Posts: 307 From: Maryland Registered: May 2010
posted 10-11-2018 06:56 PM
Are the Russians going to retrieve some of the debris to determine the cause of the anomaly (something like for Challenger and Columbia)?
posted 10-11-2018 03:55 AM
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