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  Soyuz MS-10 launch anomaly [discussion] (Page 2)

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Author Topic:   Soyuz MS-10 launch anomaly [discussion]
Blackarrow
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posted 10-11-2018 07:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
On viewing the launch video several times, it looks to me as if the core stage can be seen yawing (pitching? rolling?) almost at right-angles to the direction of travel, with the exhaust billowing out at a corresponding angle. It's difficult to be certain, given the presence of the four detached boosters, the escape tower and the fairings which had surrounded the spacecraft, but it certainly looks to me that you can see the core stage with Soyuz on top almost flying sideways. I'm not sure what else it could be.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-12-2018 07:35 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
A collision between the Soyuz-FG rocket's first and second stages is the primary cause of the launch failure, reports TASS, citing Sergei Krikalev, Roscosmos' director for human spaceflight.
"There are no final versions but the primary cause is understandable and is related to the collision of a [side mounted booster] making part of the first stage. A collision occurred during the separation of the first and second stages," the Roscosmos official said.

"A deviation from the standard trajectory occurred and apparently the lower part of the second stage disintegrated. The rocket stopped its normal flight and after that the automatic system did its work," Krikalev said.

An element of the booster's first stage collided with the second stage, Krikalev said.

"This could have been caused by the failure of the system of the normal separation, which should have been activated. We will analyze the causes in detail," the Roscosmos official said.

quote:
Originally posted by MrSpace86:
Does this also affect Progress resupply flights?
Per Krikalev, via TASS:
The dates of launches of a cargo spacecraft Progress MS to the International Space Station may be revised following the failure of the Soyuz-FG rocket. "Possibly, we may revise the date of launching the next cargo spacecraft. Possibly, we will speed up the launch of the next Soyuz. Different versions of the program are being considered," Krikalev said.
quote:
Originally posted by SpaceAngel:
Are the Russians going to retrieve some of the debris...
Per Krikalev, via TASS:
"The panel of inquiry got down to work yesterday. The results are expected after October 20. The first components found in Kazakhstan's steppe will help find out what happened. The necessary measures will be taken afterwards and flights will be continued," Krikalev said.
Further from TASS:
"Following the results of the search measures, the Emergencies Committee personnel have found a fragment of the nose fairing's flap 40 km from the city of Zhezkazgan. The fragment has been handed over to Roscosmos specialists.

SpaceAngel
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posted 10-12-2018 08:31 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAngel   Click Here to Email SpaceAngel     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There should be a computer animation of what transpired during the anomaly.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-12-2018 09:33 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If one is made, that usually comes after the investigation is complete.

Blackarrow
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posted 10-12-2018 11:15 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
A collision between the Soyuz-FG rocket's first and second stages is the primary cause of the launch failure

That certainly seems consistent which what you can see on the HD launch video, and with the benefit of this new information I can see what looks like a booster spinning rapidly while still producing an exhaust flame.

Something about the account of two stages colliding reminds me of the Ares 1-X launch. I don't have immediate access to video of that launch, but didn't the first stage "catch up" with the dummy second stage and bump it into a sideways attitude? Of course, that had no consequences.

As I read reports of the Soyuz abort in a number of newspapers today, I noticed that they were "inside page" reports (in one case, page 13). Fortunately not front page headlines!

Apollo-Soyuz
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posted 10-12-2018 12:56 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Apollo-Soyuz   Click Here to Email Apollo-Soyuz     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Washington Post put it on page 1-2.

Blackarrow
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posted 10-12-2018 01:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Well, there was an American on board! At least it wasn't pages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.

Jim Behling
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posted 10-12-2018 04:54 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Blackarrow:
...reminds me of the Ares 1-X launch.
Not the same thing. Soyuz stage 1 and 2 are parallel and not serial like Ares I was suppose to be. The Soyuz core is the second stage, whereas the four strap boosters are the first stage. This is like the Challenger, where the solid rocket booster aft attachment broke loose, and it rotated into the external tank.

Paul78zephyr
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posted 10-12-2018 10:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Paul78zephyr     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Blackarrow:
Nick Hague is surely entitled to be thinking: "After 45 years of successful launches — why me?"

Maybe they forgot to piss on the bus...

Glad they are safe. Looking forward to the results of the investigation.

QuiGon Grin
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posted 10-13-2018 09:44 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for QuiGon Grin     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
What happened to the R-7? Is there a denotation system on board that would have been used, would it just have crashed to the ground, etc.?

Skylon
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posted 10-13-2018 11:02 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Skylon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim Behling:
This is like the Challenger, where the solid rocket booster aft attachment broke loose, and it rotated into the external tank.
Maybe more like Ares I-X in the sense that there wasn't a catastrophic explosion.

Blackarrow
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posted 10-13-2018 11:02 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim Behling:
Soyuz stage 1 and 2 are parallel and not serial like Ares I was suppose to be. The Soyuz core is the second stage, whereas the four strap boosters are the first stage.
Yes, point taken. But based on the video and press statements, it looks like there has been some sort of collision, damaging the second stage and leaving it "flying sideways" and at least one booster spinning quite rapidly. Hard to tell without better quality video.

Would there be higher quality engineering footage showing a close-up of the separation process and the collision, or was a Soyuz launch considered sufficiently routine that higher quality video would not have been taken?

On Edit: At 2:38 into the posted launch video (just before the final interior view of the crew) there appears to be a bright speck separating from the Soyuz cluster. The initiating event? Or just the escape tower being jettisoned?

LM-12
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posted 10-14-2018 08:03 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for LM-12     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
spacefacts.de has Nick Hague possibly flying again on the Soyuz MS-12 mission, with Oleg Skripochka and Christina Hammock-Koch.

Skylon
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posted 10-14-2018 08:58 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Skylon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
That probably is conjecture at this stage, based on comments from NASA and Roscosmos that Hague and Ovchinin could fly again as early as next spring. Although I took that to mean they would fly again as a pair. I guess Roscosmos could possibly want to get the seat it "owes" NASA taken care of ASAP and save Ovchinin for later.

To digress a bit, I know the question of Hague earning his gold pin/USAF Astronaut wings was brought up earlier in this thread. While the abort occurred at 45 km Spacefacts.de and Wikipedia are both stating the abort trajectory took them up to around 80 to 82 km, which is in the ballpark of 50 miles. Is the verdict still out on this?

SpaceAngel
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posted 10-14-2018 04:23 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAngel   Click Here to Email SpaceAngel     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by LM-12:
spacefacts.de has Nick Hague possibly flying...
Let's not jump to conclusion...

LM-12
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posted 10-14-2018 09:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LM-12     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It is mentioned as a possibility, not a conclusion.

Hart Sastrowardoyo
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posted 10-14-2018 09:49 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Hart Sastrowardoyo   Click Here to Email Hart Sastrowardoyo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Paul78zephyr:
Maybe they forgot to piss on the bus...

No, incidents like this is the REAL reason they do, so they don't piss themselves during the abort. (That's also the reason the crew are given enemas before strapping in.)

SPACEFACTS
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posted 10-15-2018 05:55 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SPACEFACTS   Click Here to Email SPACEFACTS     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It was not my idea to put Nick Hague on Soyuz MS-12. This came from NK forum.

Jim Behling
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posted 10-15-2018 09:11 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Blackarrow:
...it looks like there has been some sort of collision... Or just the escape tower being jettisoned?
It would be more like a side swipe. Yes, that was the tower.
quote:
Originally posted by QuiGon Grin:
Is there a denotation system on board
No such system on Russian vehicles, they only shutdown the engines.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-16-2018 10:18 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SPACEFACTS:
This came from NK forum.
Nick Hague said this morning he has no idea when he will fly again, so perhaps it would be better to leave his name off the manifest for now.
quote:
Originally posted by Skylon:
Is the verdict still out on this?
Hague said that he "came close" and he did have a chance to see "the curvature of Earth and blackness of space," but that he did not reach space.

dom
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posted 10-16-2018 04:09 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for dom   Click Here to Email dom     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Paul78zephyr:
Maybe they forgot to piss on the bus...
Ordinary Russians are having fun at the lack of success of these superstitions...
Many commentators have poked fun at a traditional blessing ritual performed by an Orthodox priest who sprinkled holy water on the rocket before the launch.

A prominent blogger Ilya Varlamov commented that "the rocket had been blessed before launch, but it was still heavier than the air."

issman1
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posted 10-17-2018 02:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for issman1     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SPACEFACTS:
Nick Hague on Soyuz MS-12.
According to Sergei Krikalev in a press conference from Star City, Roscosmos want Hague and Ovichinin to fly together as soon as possible.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-17-2018 06:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
...but that he did not reach space.
Per Jonathan McDowell, citing Andrey Krasil'nikov on Novosti Kosmonavtiki's forum ("and subject to confirmation by Roskosmos") Soyuz MS-10 flew for 19 minutes, 41 seconds and reached an apogee of 57.8 miles (93 kilometers).

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-18-2018 09:41 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Sergei Krikalev says that three uncrewed flights of the Soyuz rocket are planned before crewed Soyuz spacecraft missions will resume.
"The Soyuz rocket will be launched only after the inquiry has identified the causes of the emergency and measures have been taken to prevent such situations in the future. Under the existing rules there must be at least one unmanned launch before the flight of a manned spacecraft.

We have plans for at least three launches (before the next manned mission due in early December) from the Kourou space site, the launch of an unmanned spacecraft and of an unmanned spacecraft Progress. The confirmations will be more than enough to put the next crew in space," Krikalyov said.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-20-2018 10:17 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The state commission investigating the Soyuz MS-10 launch has approved a preliminary report on the causes of the accident and has begun to prepare its recommendations for how to avoid similar situations in the future.

The final report and list of recommendations will be approved on Oct. 30 and presented to the chairman of the State Commission for Flight Testing of Manned Space Systems.

oly
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posted 10-21-2018 01:00 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Following the failed Soyuz launch and subsequent investigation, leading to the announcement that Russia want to fly multiple unmanned missions before they resume manned flights, the current station crew have been left with the option of a leaky lifeboat, plugged with and epoxy coated swab.

With the option of launching an unmanned replacement vehicle to the station not an apparent reality in the short term, and risk reduction being undertaken with such steps as postponing EVA until further notice, the existing crew may be in for a long, drawn out wait. Should something go wrong whereby the crew need to abandon the station, many currently on station experiments would have to also be abandoned.

Does the current on station Soyuz have a operational life before seals and batteries reach a use by date, and if the crew must abandon the station, is access back into the station available from a SpaceX or Boeing vehicle using the International docking Adapter while the station is unmanned?

Could Boeing and SpaceX bring forward flight test schedules, could NASA jump in to help bring either of these systems online more rapidly?

Could the US or Russia use China to provide manned access to the ISS?

Finally, hypothetically, If the station is abandoned (unmanned), do squatters rights come into effect whereby if someone else moves in, the ownership of the station comes into question?

Mike Dixon
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posted 10-21-2018 01:24 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mike Dixon   Click Here to Email Mike Dixon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
How would that last question be remotely possible?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-21-2018 06:26 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Soyuz MS-09 has an on-orbit lifespan until early January, at which point, if not replaced, the Expedition 57 crew members on the space station would need to come home.

At current, Roscosmos has been talking about moving up the launch of Soyuz MS-11 from late December to earlier that month. That launch would be preceded by three already manifested launches of the Soyuz rocket, including one from Kourou and a Progress cargo launch to the station.

SpaceX and Boeing will not be ready to fly until next summer and NASA has said it will not put pressure on them to accelerate their schedules. And given these are first flights, a crew must be aboard the space station for either Dragon or Starliner to dock.

China's Shenzhou is not configured to dock with the space station.

There are no "squatter rights" in space. Space vehicles remain the property and in control of their launching organizations under the terms of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, of which all current spacefaring nations are party.

oly
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posted 10-21-2018 08:30 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thanks Robert.

I am curious if the external hatch for the IDA can be opened from the outside, either from within a spacecraft or during an EVA.

quote:
Originally posted by Mike Dixon:
How would that last question be remotely possible?
Hence the word "hypothetically."

LM-12
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posted 10-21-2018 11:28 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for LM-12     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Alexander Gerst took photos of the Soyuz MS-10 launch from the ISS.
Glad our friends are fine. Thanks to the rescue force of over 1000 search and rescue professionals! Today showed again what an amazing vehicle the Soyuz is, to be able to save the crew from such a failure. Spaceflight is hard. And we must keep trying for the benefit of humankind.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-24-2018 07:58 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
TASS is reporting a successful launch of a Soyuz 2.1b rocket from the Plesetsk cosmodrome with a satellite for the Russian Defense Ministry. This is (apparently) one of the three Soyuz launches to occur before crewed flights resume.
The launch of the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle with a spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry was carried out on Thursday at 03:15 Moscow time from the launcher No. 4 of the site No. 43 of the Plesetsk State Space Launch Center with the crew of the Space Forces VKS. This was reported in the department of information and mass communications of the military department.

"The general leadership of the launch of the Soyuz-2.1b space rocket (ILV) was carried out by the Commander of the Space Forces - Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, Colonel-General Alexander Golovko, who arrived at the cosmodrome to monitor the preparation and conduct of the launch of the spacecraft," the message reads.

Flight of the carrier rocket takes place in the normal mode, the department said. "The Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle launched at 03:15 Moscow time from the State Plesetsk cosmodrome Plesetsk in the Arkhangelsk region was taken to be accompanied by ground-based Titov Space Testing Center of the Space Forces Aerospace Force," says in the message.

LM-12
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posted 10-24-2018 10:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for LM-12     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There was an external camera on the launch vehicle of an unmanned Soyuz rocket that launched in 2014. The camera was pointed downward to show the first stage separation of the four strap-on boosters. Not sure if there was a similar camera on the Soyuz MS-10 launch vehicle.

In the last photo above, could the small white object seen high up be the payload section after separation?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 10-31-2018 10:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
A press conference will be held on Thursday (Nov. 1) to announce the findings of the investigation, but Sergei Krikalev said Wednesday that the cause was traced back to a faulty sensor, according to TASS.
"A couple of days ago the commission finished its work, the accident occurred due to an abnormal separation of the first and second stages. One of the [side-mounted boosters] during the separation did not take the right distance and hit the second stage fuel tank, which led to the second stage breaking apart. The reason for that, as the commission found out, was the abnormal work of the sensor that signals the first and second stages of separation," said Krikalev.

space_19771999
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posted 11-01-2018 08:47 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for space_19771999   Click Here to Email space_19771999     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote

Robert Pearlman
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posted 11-01-2018 08:49 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Soyuz MS-10 launch failure occurred as a result of a stage separation sensor that was deformed during the rocket's assembly at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, the head of the emergency commission, Deputy Director of the Central Research Institute of Machine-Building (TsNIImash) Oleg Skorobogatov, said on Thursday (Nov. 1).
"The nozzle lid of the oxidizer tank in the block D did not open as a sensor of the stages' separation was deformed (a 6-degree bend) during the assembly of the 'package' at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, which was the cause of the off-nominal separation," Skorobogatov said.

According to the commission head, "this has been proven and confirmed documentarily that this occurred due to the faulty sensor and this could occur only during the assembly of the 'package' at the Baikonur Cosmodrome.'"

With the cause identified, the Soyuz MS-11 launch with Oleg Kononenko, Anne McClain and David Saint-Jacques has been targeted for approximately 6:31 a.m. EST (5:31 p.m. local time in Kazakhstan) on Dec. 3.

The space agency also released an infographic detailing the timeline of the launch, which Anatoly Zak of RussianSpaceWeb.com has translated:

cspg
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posted 11-01-2018 10:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cspg   Click Here to Email cspg     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
From the launch video it must have been a scary time when the boosters were jettisoned...

SpaceAngel
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posted 11-01-2018 11:28 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAngel   Click Here to Email SpaceAngel     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
From what I read on the final report as well as Spaceflight Now, why was this problem not detected during the final assembly of the rocket?

Also, there was a video being posted of the launch and I was wondering if it's the actual event; lastly, did the investigation also announced no fowl play (i.e. any kind of sabotage) was involved?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 11-01-2018 12:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Specifics were not given during the press conference as to how the sensor was "deformed" or why it escaped detection.

The video is indeed of the Soyuz MS-10 launch through its failure.

Neil DC
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posted 11-01-2018 02:50 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Neil DC   Click Here to Email Neil DC     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The launch failure footage is amazing. Had never seen it from that angle before, let alone on a failure. I wonder when they started doing this?

Also amazed that they have brought forward the launch date of the next crew. It shows the flexibility of their production system. Either that or some unmanned mission has been pushed back to utilize the launcher sooner than later.

328KF
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posted 11-01-2018 05:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 328KF   Click Here to Email 328KF     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Was there any mention of the culprit booster being recovered and examined? Because if it wasn't, this explaination seems to be incredibly detailed given a lack of physical evidence.

The Russians have had a recent history of launch failures due to quality control problems in the production of their rockets. I've long believed that it was only a matter of time before these problems found their way into the manned side of their program.

If the booster was not recovered, the description of the failure suggests to me that some defect was known during the production/assembly of the rocket and subsequently cleared for flight. The Russians zeroed in on the cause far faster than might be expected otherwise.

Clearly, the problems they've had aren't design issues...the hardware is decades old. That leaves a handful of possible causes, mainly crew error (not here) and QC.


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