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Author Topic:   Apollo 13 and the cancellation of Apollo 18
carmelo
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posted 06-24-2015 11:03 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for carmelo   Click Here to Email carmelo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Nixon feared repeated Apollo lunar landing missions after the Apollo 13 accident nearly killed its crew not wanting his reputation to be associated with a fatal accident. So he wanted to cancel the last Apollo missions.

His Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Deputy Director Caspar Weinberger was opposed to this, persuading Nixon to keep the remaining Moon missions. NASA cancelled Apollo 18 and 19 on 2 September 1970 (nearly five months after Apollo 13).

My question is: If Apollo 13 was successful could the program Apollo continue until Apollo 18? In other words, could Apollo 18 not be canceled?

Headshot
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posted 06-24-2015 12:54 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Technically NASA cancelled the H-4 (Apollo 15) and the J-4 (Apollo 19) missions on 2 Sept 70. The "official" reason for the cancellations was given as budgetary.

Since most of the hardware had either been built, or was way down the manufacturing pipeline, the actual amount saved bordered on minimal ($42 million). It seemed obvious, even at the time, that there were other factors, besides money, that entered into the decision announced by Thomas O. Paine.

Jim Behling
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posted 06-24-2015 02:17 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Headshot:
It seemed obvious, even at the time, that there were other factors, besides money...
Not true at all. The "factors," which was basically money, existed before the Apollo 13 mission.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-24-2015 02:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There were other factors than funding that predated Apollo 13, too.

Politics for example. Apollo was viewed as Kennedy's project and while Nixon knew he couldn't derail the goal of a fallen president, Apollo 11 had already achieved what Kennedy challenged the nation to accomplish. Further, Apollo 11 put to bed the space race between the Soviet Union and the United States, such that Nixon and Congress had no pressing interest to keep Apollo going.

And, as Carmelo noted, the concern existed (and was certainly heightened as a result of Apollo 13) that the longer Apollo flew, the more chances there were that a crew would be lost in flight.

All these factors, funding included, spelled out the end of Apollo.

Hart Sastrowardoyo
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posted 06-24-2015 05:21 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Hart Sastrowardoyo   Click Here to Email Hart Sastrowardoyo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by carmelo:
NASA cancelled Apollo 18 and 19 on 2 September 1970 (nearly five months after Apollo 13).
So when was Haise told he would have command of Apollo 19, and was that ever "official," e.g., put in writing someplace?

Blackarrow
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posted 06-24-2015 05:28 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Robert and I don't always agree, but on this he has hit the nail on the head. It was a crying shame (particularly for Dick Gordon!) but it happened and we can't change it.

Cozmosis22
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posted 06-24-2015 08:07 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Cozmosis22     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Of course it was all about the money... and the politicians who decided where the money should go. Everyone had their pet programs and after Apollo 11 the "space race" quickly fell to the bottom of their priorities lists.

Headshot
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posted 06-24-2015 09:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The $42 million that NASA saved by cancelling the Apollo 15 and 19 missions represented only 1.3% of NASA's Fiscal 1971 budget.

Fra Mauro
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posted 06-25-2015 08:51 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Fra Mauro   Click Here to Email Fra Mauro     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
While funding was a factor, to me the major factors were Nixon's ambivalence towards space (unless there were political benefits), the disinterest among the public and the shift in attitudes in Congress (If we didn't go to the moon, we could solve...), and the lack of united effort by those who supported the lunar landings to fight to continue Apollo. The cutbacks seemed to be accepted without a peep.

Paul78zephyr
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posted 06-25-2015 12:13 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Paul78zephyr     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
Apollo was viewed as Kennedy's project and while Nixon knew he couldn't derail the goal of a fallen president, Apollo 11 had already achieved what Kennedy challenged the nation to accomplish.
I could not agree more.

I have read extensively about Nixon. He hated the Kennedys and anything/everything 'Kennedy'. He wanted nothing more that to get out from under the national popularity of the achievement of 'Kennedy's goal'. I also believe this is why he was a supporter of the space shuttle. Not because he was a supporter of space activities/exploration but because it was something 'not of the Kennedy's' that the nation could focus on.

mach3valkyrie
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posted 06-25-2015 02:01 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mach3valkyrie   Click Here to Email mach3valkyrie     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Right on.

It's ironic that most all of the Apollo flights took place during the Nixon administration.

Cozmosis22
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posted 06-25-2015 05:39 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Cozmosis22     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Paul78zephyr:
I have read extensively about Nixon. He hated the Kennedys and anything/everything 'Kennedy'.
Well, they were political rivals and both were elected to Congress in 1946. Hate is a nasty thing and have read nothing credible to suggest such animosity. If you're going to smear someone you really should try to back it up with some facts.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-25-2015 05:57 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
His personal feelings about Kennedy aside, the reasons for Nixon cancelling Apollo and deciding what would replace it could fill a book, and it has: After Apollo? Richard Nixon and the American Space Program. In it, author and historian John Logsdon, explores what Nixon's thoughts were about space, as described by Jeff Foust for The Space Review:
Space, though, was not a priority for the Nixon Administration, which struggled in general to get organized after taking office. While Nixon was happy to celebrate the success of Apollo 11, he did not necessarily care for space that much: for example, the White House reported that Nixon watched the 1971 launch of Apollo 15 on television, when in fact he had slept through it. In 1971, Nixon told an advisor he supported the space program because it was "exploring the unknown," but added, "I don't give a damn about space. I am not one of those space cadets."

...even as late as 1971 Nixon was weighing cancelling Apollos 16 and 17, fearing the effect an accident would have during an election year. While Nixon gets blamed for ending Apollo and shutting down production of the Saturn V, Logsdon doesn't believe he bears the sole blame. "The United States decided in 1970 to retreat from exploring the Moon; that decision had several parents, not just Richard Nixon."

Hart Sastrowardoyo
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posted 06-25-2015 06:34 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Hart Sastrowardoyo   Click Here to Email Hart Sastrowardoyo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Is it an urban legend that Nixon didn't want the aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy to pick up the crew of Apollo 11?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-25-2015 06:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Yes, only a legend, as explained by author Bob Fish, the author of "Hornet Plus Three":
For nostalgic reasons, many members of the public, and a few politicians, felt it should have been the brand new aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy (CV-67). They blamed President Nixon for making a "spiteful" ship selection.

In reality, CV-67 was undergoing readiness trials in the Atlantic Ocean in mid-1969. She was not prepared to handle a "real" mission, was many thousands of miles away, and was a front line attack carrier, not a support carrier. Aircraft carrier battle groups, and aircraft squadrons, require lengthy and complex advanced planning, involving many Navy units, for logistics and placement. The President of the US was far removed from being involved in ship mission selection.
For more, see the previous topic, Apollo XI: "The John F. Kennedy" from 2010.

Charlie16
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posted 06-26-2015 12:47 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Charlie16   Click Here to Email Charlie16     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It's politics that decides how the money is spent and the money to spend on missions Apollo 18 and 19 was too much for that historic moment.

No fear of losing the crews, only Nixon (little man) vs. Kennedy (great man) and money... a lot of money.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-26-2015 01:05 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Before we praise Kennedy too highly, keep in mind that he was attempting to curtail or cancel Apollo before he died. In that regard, he wasn't too different from Nixon.

moorouge
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posted 06-26-2015 02:44 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Can one add to Robert's last post that Apollo got to '17' only because Lyndon Johnson was a space enthusiast? Without his pressence in the White House from 1963 to 1968 the cuts might have come even sooner.

David C
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posted 06-26-2015 07:48 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for David C     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Charlie16:
...only Nixon (little man) vs. Kennedy (great man) and money... a lot of money.
I wouldn't be so quick to call Kennedy great and Nixon little. Kennedy's reputation has always been inflated by the timing and manner of his death whilst Nixon's is tarnished by his departure from office. They both did good and bad things.

cosmic_buffalo
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posted 06-26-2015 08:02 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cosmic_buffalo   Click Here to Email cosmic_buffalo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
According to Craig Nelson in his book "Rocket Men: The Epic Story of the First Men on the Moon," Nixon's advisers urged him not to cancel the post-Apollo programs as it would give off the impression that "our best days were behind us."

My thoughts: This, of course, resulted in the less than spectacular Skylab, which was never the original plan or design, if I recall correctly.

The main reason does in fact seem to be budgetary. The space program was always a financial boondoggle, but it was justified because we needed to beat the Soviets to the moon and there was a certain air of excitement and patriotism associated with the program that a politician couldn't resist.

After Apollo 11, the need to continue changed as we had already beat the Soviets and the public support for the program waned considerably. NASA had to pay networks to cover the missions and even Apollo 13's orbital broadcast was dropped from the networks. The price tag just wasn't worth the political and financial capital.

Orthon
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posted 06-26-2015 04:06 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Orthon   Click Here to Email Orthon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Did the so called "leaders" of this country realize that an entire infrastructure had been assembled to explore the solar system and benefit the United States? To throw it all away was total insanity. The monetary drain from the Vietnam war was ending.

Jonnyed
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posted 06-26-2015 07:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jonnyed   Click Here to Email Jonnyed     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
In addition to the obvious budget pressures, could not another major factor be diminishing scientific returns? After a few missions collecting moon rocks and running various science experiments, could the later (eventually cancelled) Apollo missions add much more to our scientific understanding of the moon? And even if we wanted MORE science activities, couldn't UNMANNED missions to the moon accomplish most goals?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-26-2015 08:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Science was a distant secondary objective of the Apollo program, and was never a driving goal of the politicians who would decide its fate.

Peter downunder
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posted 06-26-2015 11:12 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Peter downunder   Click Here to Email Peter downunder     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I will always be in the 'how short-sighted were those guys?' side of the equation when it comes to NASA in general and Apollo in particular. 400,000 jobs!

Was it Cernan who said something along the lines of 'not a single dollar was spent in space..'?

Charlie16
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posted 06-27-2015 01:01 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Charlie16   Click Here to Email Charlie16     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think might help the discussion, yesterday I asked directly to Fred Haise.

Haise: "The cancellations were not because of Apollo 13 but more because of budget cuts. NASA management wanted to move on to next things so as to not have too large a gap between programs that you see happening today."

David C
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posted 06-27-2015 04:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for David C     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jonnyed:
In addition to the obvious budget pressures, could not another major factor be diminishing scientific returns? After a few missions collecting moon rocks and running various science experiments, could the later (eventually cancelled) Apollo missions add much more to our scientific understanding of the moon?

The Moon has a surface area equal to approximately 25% of Earth's land area. The popular impression that twelve men have essentially fully explored it in six visits and less than 7 man days of surface EVAs is frankly laughable. So yeah, I'd guess that much more can be added. How much on any one mission? Well that depends how lucky you are.

quote:
And even if we wanted MORE science activities, couldn't UNMANNED missions to the moon accomplish most goals?

Depends entirely on those goals. Unmanned missions, though they've obtained amazing results, are still very limited in their overall capability.

But as Robert has rightly reminded us, science wasn't the point of Apollo.

carmelo
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posted 06-27-2015 08:49 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for carmelo   Click Here to Email carmelo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
A clarification, I talk only of Apollo 18 as last mission on the moon if Apollo 13 was a success, not of Apollo 19.

Jim Behling
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posted 06-27-2015 09:29 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Orthon:
Did the so called "leaders" of this country realize that an entire infrastructure had been assembled to explore the solar system and benefit the United States?

How would it benefit the United States? There would be little economic return and the US didn't need anymore soft power.

Lou Chinal
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posted 06-28-2015 03:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lou Chinal   Click Here to Email Lou Chinal     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If I may be allowed to quote Jim McDivitt, "The administration got cold feet after Apollo 13."

schnappsicle
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posted 06-28-2015 10:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for schnappsicle   Click Here to Email schnappsicle     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It's fairly obvious to me that the elimination of the last three Apollo flights (18, 19 and 20) was due in large part to the success of Apollo 11 and far less to the problems of Apollo 13.

Remember, we'd already had the Apollo 1 fire three years earlier. If anyone was worried about people dying in space, that would have been the perfect opportunity to shut down the entire manned space program and call it quits.

While the cuts didn't save a lot of money, politicians did save their jobs. As was pointed out by others in this thread, public support for space exploration waned considerably after the Apollo 11 flight. I saw news reports all during the Gemini and Apollo programs where people were saying we needed to spend our money on the people here on earth, not sending people into space. That kind of talk intensified greatly after Apollo 11. Civil rights leaders were especially critical of the space program, which they felt took away valuable resources that could have been spent on the War on Poverty. That was too many votes for any politician to ignore, regardless of party affiliation.

So basically, the cancellations achieved the goal of making people think that Congress and the President were serious about more earthly matters, which was far more important than mere dollars. Were they short-sighted? Of course. But politicians were fighting a losing battle trying to justify the amount of money being spent on human space exploration. We all know that the NASA budget was or is about one penny per tax dollar. But people don't look at it like that. The only thing they see is the half a billion dollars it took to send each group of three astronauts to the moon.

Anyone who wants to know what we could have learned with the last three flights needs to read "To A Rocky Moon." It's available for free download from the Lunar And Planetary Institute website. Don Wilhelm talks extensively about what was learned from each mission and the questions that remained after. And no, we could not have answered the scientists' questions without human exploration. Look no further than the Mars rovers. While they did gather a lot of information, one of them was rendered useless when it got stuck in a crater. I would hope that a human driving on the surface of Mars would be able to avoid large craters. A lot of what we still have left to discover about the moon can only be found far below the surface. A robot can only drill down a few inches, while the Apollo astronauts were able to drill much deeper samples for scientific study. Also, photos have yet to come close to what the human eye can see and detect in terms of color and clarity. As any scientist knows, the best observer is a pair of human eyes.

moorouge
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posted 06-29-2015 01:00 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by schnappsicle:
We all know that the NASA budget was or is about 1 penny per tax dollar. But people don't look at it like that. The only thing they see is the half a billion dollars it took to send each group of 3 astronauts to the moon.

Quite true. However, very nearly all of that money stayed here on Earth filtering through to countless economies throughout the United States. The fact that this simple economic truth was not realised by the politicians and sold to the American public is, perhaps, the greatest failure of the Apollo programme.

Jim Behling
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posted 06-29-2015 05:56 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
That is another fallacy. The "simple economic truth" is that government spending does not stimulate the economy.

Jonnyed
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posted 06-29-2015 08:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jonnyed   Click Here to Email Jonnyed     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Well we digress tremendously but Jim have you never heard of FDR's "New Deal"? In just 2009, we had the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Of course government spending can affect the economy. But back on topic...
quote:
Originally posted by schnappsicle:
Anyone who wants to know what we could have learned with the last three flights needs to read "To A Rocky Moon."
Thanks for the tip. I'll have to check that out.

moorouge
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posted 06-30-2015 01:05 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim Behling:
That is another fallacy. The "simple economic truth" is that government spending does not stimulate the economy.
Where do you think NASA workers spent their wages? Just to give you one example.

Before Michoud was selected as a major test facility for the Apollo programme the township was dying on its feet. Apollo brought an increase of 36,000 workers. These needed service industries and spending just in shops rose by £11 million in 1960's values. Further, nearly 7000 new jobs were created outside the space industry - teachers, waitresses, laundry workers, garage mechanics to mention just a few.

David C
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posted 06-30-2015 05:50 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for David C     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Still not that simple. That money came from somewhere (taxes). If not taken as tax, the people who earned it would have eventually spent it elsewhere. We don't know how many jobs that would have created or supported, possibly more, but definately not the same ones. Without doubt government spending distorts economies from their natural direction.

Which is not to say that I think a little government spending to stimulate some economic sectors is a bad thing. Just simplistic statements about the benefits of the New Deal etc (what really saved US industry was WWII) are usually unproved.

oly
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posted 06-30-2015 06:28 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Use a simple example of a single person getting a job in a small country town that pays 40,000 per year. If this person is thrifty they may save 5,000 per year and spend the rest within the small town, effectively putting 35,000 into the town's economy. If this money goes to employing someone else on 35,000 per year and they save 5,000 per year and put 30,000 back into town. If this cycle continues it is easy to see how any job creation stimulates the economy.

The Apollo program and subsequent follow on programs created jobs, skills training, revolutionized manufacturing and engineering, provided years of technology improvements in the aerospace industry, led to new materials and testing methods and a whole lot more beneficial items.

The original post of Apollo 13 leading to the cancellation of Apollo 18 can be viewed from many angles. But the significant point that Apollo 1 through 17 happened is more important. The rate of development should have been ridden further, somewhere along the ride the can do attitude became more cautious, more reserved and the focus was softened.

Apollo 13 is a moment in history that has taught more lessons as we have had more time to reflect. It is natural for a failure like 13 to cause people to become more cautious, Columbia and Challenger showed us this, SpaceShipTwo, the Russian space program, SpaceX and others have all had setbacks, it is how the setbacks are handled that count.

I am sure anybody in control of the Apollo program, the budget, the safety and other points were wise to look at the risk versus reward after 13.

garymilgrom
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posted 06-30-2015 07:58 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for garymilgrom   Click Here to Email garymilgrom     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by David C:
The Moon has a surface area equal to approximately 25% of Earth's land area. The popular impression that twelve men have essentially fully explored it in six visits and less than 7 man days of surface EVAs is frankly laughable.

David I had the same initial thought to this idea. And I've read somewhere that we've only explored an area of the moon equal in size to the state of New Jersey here on earth. But does the moon have that much to explore? It doesn't have areas of large physical differences (desert, rainforest etc.). There are no seasonal changes (I think). It appears to be a big ball of rock.

I agree that we have not fully explored it, but don't we know most of the moon from the Apollo science? Thanks in advance, great discussion on many fronts.

Jim Behling
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posted 06-30-2015 08:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by oly:
The Apollo program and subsequent follow on programs created jobs, skills training, revolutionized manufacturing and engineering, provided years of technology improvements in the aerospace industry, led to new materials and testing methods and a whole lot more beneficial items.
Actually, it was the ICBM program that did that.
quote:
Originally posted by moorouge:
These needed service industries and spending just in shops rose by £11 million in 1960's values.
Fallacy, the money just didn't exist to be spent. The money was taken from other places in the form of taxes. It actually reduced overall spending.

Jonnyed
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posted 06-30-2015 09:47 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jonnyed   Click Here to Email Jonnyed     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Earlier in the thread there was a statement about government spending and the New Deal that was not informed by the facts. Here is the percentage change in the US GDP from 1933 to 1946.
  • 1946 - 37.23%
  • 1945 - 76.35%
  • 1944 - 118.27%
  • 1943 - 117.22%
  • 1942 - 89.93%
  • 1941 - 39.14%
  • 1940 - 21.20%
  • 1939 - 25.84%
  • 1938 - 30.84%
  • 1937 - 62.59%
  • 1936 - 42.69%
  • 1935 - -4.01%
  • 1934 - -27.55%
  • 1933 - -45.32%
So the New Deal (beginning 1933) played out in an economy that started out with a -45% contraction and moved to an immediate trend slowing/reversal and then significant growth EVERY YEAR right up to US entry into WW2 (Dec41/Jan42) Obviously, later war spending was significant and impactful but to claim that government spending/jobs in a peacetime economy doesn't stimulate the economy is blind denial.

But back on topic: It would have been interesting to see the Apollo infrastructure run at top speed for several decades and examine the economic/engineering/technological returns! Maybe we'd all have flying cars by now.

moorouge
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posted 07-01-2015 01:18 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim Behling:
It actually reduced overall spending.
Governments get their money in three ways — from taxes, from borrowing or simply by printing more. Each has its advantages and each has its drawbacks.

Kennedy inherited an economy that turned sharply downward in the summer of 1957 and reached its low point in the spring of 1958. Industrial production fell 14 percent, corporate profits plummeted 25 percent and unemployment rose to 7.5 percent. President Eisenhower did little to stimulate the economy because he worried more about inflation and not unemployment. Subsequently, in 1959 the economy realized $12 billion deficit, a new record for a budget shortfall during peacetime.

One of Kennedy's solutions to stimulate the flagging economy was to spend money on sending Americans to the Moon. One of the results of this decision is evidenced by what happened at Michoud. In this respect the analogy to the New Deal is a good one.


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