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Author Topic:   Progress M-27M (59P): comments, questions
Robert Pearlman
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posted 04-28-2015 08:58 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Progress M-27M (59P): questions and comments
This thread is for readers' comments and questions about Russia's Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft and the updates published here.

The Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft launched successfully on April 28, 2015 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan but developed telemetry issues soon after reaching its preliminary orbit. As a result, the craft's planned docking with the International Space Station has been "indefinitely postponed."

Progress M-27M is the 59th Russian cargo spacecraft to be launched to the International Space Station.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 04-28-2015 09:05 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Flight controllers also confirmed that the vehicle had entered into a spin and have issued commands in an attempt to control it.

SpaceAngel
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posted 04-29-2015 07:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAngel   Click Here to Email SpaceAngel     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Will there be a suspension of future Progress resupply missions until further notice?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 04-29-2015 08:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The next Progress flight is scheduled for August.

According to Roscosmos officials today, they have convened an investigation panel to identify what went wrong, but are also looking at the possibility of moving up the next flight, assuming the cause is identified promptly.

Roscosmos does not anticipate (at least as of today) the Progress failure to affect the next Soyuz crewed launch in May as it uses a different type of rocket.

SkyMan1958
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posted 04-30-2015 11:21 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I was wondering, in this article about the M27-M there is a picture that states:
Engineers ready the Progress M-27M spacecraft for launch at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. (RSC Energia)
To the left of the picture is clearly a Soviet era heraldic design. Is this picture indeed of the M-27M, or did RSC just grab an old picture? Thanks!

Robert Pearlman
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posted 04-30-2015 11:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
That is indeed M-27M. As ITAR-TASS explains:
The nose cone of the Soyuz carrier rocket has the symbols of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Soviet campaign against Nazi Germany, namely the Order of the Patriotic War and Saint George's Ribbon.

Several Saint George's Ribbons for the crew of the station have been sent to the ISS aboard the Progress spacecraft. This comes in preparation for the celebrations of the 70th anniversary of Victory.

Lasv3
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posted 04-30-2015 11:29 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lasv3   Click Here to Email Lasv3     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The photo is current, the red star design is there to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of the WWII.

GACspaceguy
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posted 05-07-2015 04:31 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for GACspaceguy   Click Here to Email GACspaceguy     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Is there an update on when reentry may occur?

Robonaut
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posted 05-07-2015 06:20 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robonaut   Click Here to Email Robonaut     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
According to the Russian Federal Space Agency on 6 May 2015 re-entry will occur between 01:23 to 21:55 GMT on 8 May 2015. They expect to give more accurate timings sometime today.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-07-2015 07:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Roscosmos' May 7 update now has the window for reentry extending from 2145 to 0336 GMT tonight (4:45 p.m. to 10:36 p.m. CDT).

The space agency's update doesn't predict a reentry point, but notes that all of the Progress will burn up in the atmosphere, with the possible exception of some small structural pieces. The latest prediction from the Aerospace Corporation suggests a reentry over the Indian Ocean off the coast of Africa.

Update: Aerospace Corp. now has the reentry over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Brazil.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-07-2015 10:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Progress M-27M is no more.
"Progress M-27M ceased to exist," Roscosmos stated on its website, adding that the spacecraft met its end on the 160th orbit around the planet. It was not immediately clear if the report was based on observed data or predictions.

U.S. Strategic Command gave a re-entry time of 9:20 p.m. CDT (0220 GMT) over the South Pacific to the west of the southern tip of South America.

328KF
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posted 05-16-2015 09:25 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for 328KF   Click Here to Email 328KF     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
With the loss of the Proton rocket carrying a Mexican satellite we've now seen two consecutive launch failures and a failed orbit boost by the Progress currently docked to ISS.

I would say this is becoming a concern, but the management and quality control problems throughout Russia's space program have been evident for a long time now.

It's getting a little old hearing them say "not to worry... this failure has nothing in common with _______." The issue, though, is that with so many failures across a variety of rockets and spacecraft, serious concerns are raised about the safety of their manned program.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-16-2015 01:04 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Those concerns are heightened if you accept generalizations that aren't necessarily supported by the facts.

Other than their both being made in Russia, the Proton and Soyuz rockets are separate vehicles manufactured in different cities. Lumping them together and then trying to draw conclusions about the Soyuz spacecraft (or Soyuz booster used to launch it) doesn't really present an accurate portrayal of the situation.

The timing of the two losses is unfortunate as it will place additional pressure on Russia's space sector to recover quickly, but the timing alone isn't enough to draw lines between the two events.

issman1
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posted 05-16-2015 02:51 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for issman1     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Just a matter of time when there is a real risk of losing a Soyuz crew.

What is really astonishing is that a mishap board has already vowed to ensure a return to flight of Proton. Till the next disaster anyway.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-16-2015 03:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
You expected ILS and Khrunichev were going to retire the Proton because of this loss? Otherwise, what exactly is astonishing about committing to a return to flight?

issman1
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posted 05-16-2015 03:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for issman1     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
No but perhaps an alternative system like Angara could be fast-tracked, if the Russian government so chooses.

I actually support Russia inspite of all the rhetoric regarding certain other issues. Talk of a return to flight is expected but not blase. Eventually less and less customers will trust their expensive payloads to a Proton that crashes and burns with alarming regularity.

Once the SpaceX heavy lifter comes online there will be real competition for Russia.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-16-2015 03:44 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I believe Khrunichev, maker of both rockets, plans to eventually phase out the Proton in favor of the Angara, but they aren't at that stage yet, in part because of the logistics needed to support the new booster.

The Russian government committed earlier this year to accelerating completion of the the Vostochny Cosmodrome, though it will still be a number of years (I believe 2021 is the target) until Angara flies from there.

In the meantime, Proton at Baikonur is still needed.

The Soyuz rocket is built by TsSKB-Progress, separate from Khrunichev, so trying to use the Proton failure to draw conclusions about the future or safety of Soyuz seems, at best, simplified.

quote:
Originally posted by issman1:
...a Proton that crashes and burns with alarming regularity.
The last Proton failure was almost exactly a year ago, on May 15, 2014. Since then six Proton-M/Briz-M rockets have been launched successfully.

This was, according to Jonathan McDowell, the 409th flight of the Briz-M 8S812 third stage.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-01-2015 01:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
A specific design linkage of a Soyuz-2.1a carrier rocket and a Progress M-27M space freighter was the cause for the cargo craft being lost, the press office of Russia’s Federal Space Agency Roscosmos said on Monday (June 1), ITAR-TASS reports.
"A design peculiarity in the joint use of the spaceship and the rocket related to the frequency-dynamic characteristics of the linkage between the spaceship and the rocket's third stage is the cause for the damage done to the spaceship as a result of the emergency separation of the carrier rocket's third stage and the transport spacecraft," Roscosmos said.

According to the state commission, this peculiarity was not taken into full account during the design work for the development of this rocket and space complex.

Roscosmos is now elaborating a plan of measures for the complex's further flight tests, the press office said.

"No limitations on the further operation of Soyuz-2.1a carrier rockets with other spacecraft have been revealed," Roscosmos said.

The adjusted schedule of launches under the program of manned flights, including space freighter launches, will be specified on June 9, Roscosmos said.

A TASS source in the rocket and space industry said "a Progress M-28M will be launched to the ISS on July 3 and a Soyuz TMA-17M manned spacecraft will blast off late in the evening of July 24."

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