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Author Topic:   Ukraine crisis (2022) and space cooperation
Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-24-2022 12:57 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Addressing the nation after Russia's attack on Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced new international sanctions against Russian banks, oligarchs and companies, including the country's aerospace industry.
We estimate that we'll cut off more than half of Russia's high tech imports and will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military. It'll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program.
There was no specific mention of what this means for the International Space Station program, though both U.S. and Russian space agency officials have said as of earlier today that the partnership is continuing.

SpaceAholic
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posted 02-24-2022 01:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It is inconceivable in this environment and anticipated escalation to follow (in part generated as a result of future Russian responses to the sanctions regime) that ISS cooperation will endure.

dom
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posted 02-24-2022 01:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for dom   Click Here to Email dom     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
As things become increasingly nasty inside Putin’s Russia and in an occupied Ukraine (in the worst case scenario), I think co-operation on the ISS will become politically untenable for the west sooner than we all imagined.

SkyMan1958
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posted 02-24-2022 02:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Assuming the worst with regards to the ISS, it would still need a plan to deorbit it. I would think that would take at least two years to plan, manufacture and launch some retro-rocket package for the ISS.

mode1charlie
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posted 02-24-2022 02:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for mode1charlie   Click Here to Email mode1charlie     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The dream of peaceful cooperation in space between the West and Russia, which was made manifest in the International Space Station, has passed.

I wish it weren't so, but there is no denying it now.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-24-2022 03:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
And yet, as of now, Russian flight controllers continue to work as normal with their American, European and Japanese counterparts to monitor the health of the space station and support the Expedition 66 crew.

Yes, Dmitry Rogozin, director general of Roscosmos, has stayed true to his form, taking to Twitter to criticize the sanctions. Notably, though, he did not call for Russia to leave the space station program, instead leaving that decision with the U.S.:

Do you want to destroy our cooperation on the ISS?

This is how you already do it by limiting exchanges between our cosmonaut and astronaut training centers. Or do you want to manage the ISS yourself? Maybe President Biden is off topic, so explain to him that the correction of the station's orbit, its avoidance of dangerous rendezvous with space garbage, with which your talented businessmen have polluted the near-Earth orbit, is produced exclusively by the engines of the Russian Progress MS cargo ships.

If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or Europe? There is also the option of dropping a 500-ton structure to India and China. Do you want to threaten them with such a prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours. Are you ready for them?

Mike Dixon
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posted 02-24-2022 03:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mike Dixon   Click Here to Email Mike Dixon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Hardly diplomatic.

SpaceAholic
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posted 02-24-2022 03:57 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
...its avoidance of dangerous rendezvous with space garbage
Such heartfelt concern after Russia converted COSMOS 1408 into a multi-thousand piece debris field that continues to place ISS at risk.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-24-2022 07:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
NASA statement in response to the new sanctions:
NASA continues working with all our international partners, including the State Space Corporation Roscosmos, for the ongoing safe operations of the International Space Station. The new export control measures will continue to allow U.S.-Russia civil space cooperation.

No changes are planned to the agency's support for ongoing in orbit and ground station operations.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-24-2022 09:39 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
After a Russian helicopter attack on Hostomel airport on Thursday (Feb. 24), there were reports that the Antonov An-225 Mriya was destroyed in a hangar fire.

The AN-225, which today flies as a commercial cargo plane, was originally built to transport the Energia boosters and Buran orbiters in support of the Soviet space program. The Mriya remains the world's largest and heaviest operational aircraft.

Later in the day, Dmitry Antonov, chief pilot of Antonov Airlines, the owner of the AN-225, posted on Facebook that the Mriya was intact.

Hostomel airport now under Russian airborn forces. Large planes big possibility will land tonight.

From the positive, Mriya is whole. We hold on and glory to Ukraine.

Update: Hostomel airport is now back in Ukranian control. Further details about the condition of the Mriya have yet to be reported.

oly
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posted 02-25-2022 03:03 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I don’t see any change to the end-of-life requirements for the ISS given the change in the political environment. Russia has stated previously that they will end participation in ISS in 2025, while the US administration has committed to ISS until 2030.

Given that Russia plans to pull out, NASA and the other partners needed to find a way of performing a controlled deorbiting of the ISS without the use of a Russian spacecraft meaning they either need to volunteer an existing vehicle to perform the duty or design and build something specifically for the task.

While there may be a political change that sees Russia part ways early, NASA and it's partners will still be in the same position.

dom
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posted 02-25-2022 08:14 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for dom   Click Here to Email dom     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Russia wouldn’t have a crewed space program if it wasn't for the opportunities offered by the ISS cash cow when they needed help. Now that the Putin regime is literally spitting in the face of international norms, I feel it's time to show them the door.

Maybe that will concentrate the minds of more rational actors in Moscow? I think we're getting to the stage where symbolism really counts. Europeans are literally dying on the streets of a major capital because one of the ISS partners has developed a grotesque sense of what it can get away with.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-25-2022 08:34 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by oly:
Russia has stated previously that they will end participation in ISS in 2025...
Prior to the current conflict, but after the White House announced a commitment to 2030, Roscosmos agreed in principal to an extension to at least 2030, with Vladimir Solovyov, flight director of the Russian segment of the ISS saying that the station's deorbit should come closer to the end of the decade.

As such, the ISS transition report that NASA released in January was developed in cooperation with Roscosmos, calling for three Progress vehicles to steer the station into a destructive deorbit in the 2030-2031 time frame. That remains the plan as of today.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-25-2022 09:25 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
European Space Agency release
Crisis in Ukraine

As we go through these dark hours following the start of the full-scale military confrontation unfolding in Ukraine, ESA has been closely monitoring the situation while maintaining regular contact with its Member States, industry and international partners in order to assess the possible consequences for ESA's ongoing activities and above all for the workforce involved in its critical operations.

One of the strengths that space cooperation has demonstrated in the past is the resilience of the partners to overcome geopolitical crises and maintain, as is the case on board the International Space Station, a place of joint research for peaceful purposes for the benefit of all. ESA is committed to continuing the work of all its programme activities, including the ongoing ExoMars launch campaign, to ensure their successful implementation, wherever possible.

From ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher (via Twitter):
Notwithstanding the current conflict, civil space cooperation remains a bridge. ESA continues to work on all of its programmes, including on ISS and ExoMars launch campaign, in order to honour commitments with Member States and partners. We continue to monitor the evolving situation.

I am sad and worried as the aggression continues to worsen in Ukraine. With ESA Member States, we will take any decisions needed. But for now, support for our missions and colleagues continues until further notice.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-25-2022 10:01 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Unconfirmed reports via Twitter are saying that the Yuzhnoye Design Office and Yuzhmash State Factory in Ukraine, where the first stage of Northrop Grumman's Antares rocket is produced, have been destroyed.

From SpaceNews' Jeff Foust (via Twitter):

I would emphasize "confirmation pending" here, which is true for any claims you see coming out of a combat zone.

Also, Northrop said last week they have all the components for two more Antares launches, so in a worst-case scenario they have time to find new launches for Cygnus.

From Russian Space Web editor Anatoly Zak (via Twitter):
My sources dispute info about destruction of Yuzhmash, as of this hour.

SkyMan1958
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posted 02-25-2022 11:37 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Do you think OneWeb will continue to launch satellites on Soyuz rockets? Clearly this is helping the Russian rocket sector. Given the British Government's stake in OneWeb this has significant political undertones.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-25-2022 01:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Ars Technica has published a summary of how the war in Ukraine is affecting spaceflight activities. About OneWeb, the article reports:
So far, the company has not said anything publicly about the Russian invasion of Ukraine or its plans. OneWeb did not respond to a request for comment from Ars on Friday.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-26-2022 09:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Roscosmos General Director Dmitry Rogozin has responded to European Union sanctions by withdrawing support for launches from the European spaceport:
In response to EU sanctions against our enterprises, Roscosmos is suspending cooperation with European partners in organizing space launches from the Kourou cosmodrome and withdrawing its personnel, including the consolidated launch crew, from French Guiana.

There are 87 Russian citizens in French Guiana. We are talking about employees of NPO Lavochkin, who prepared the Fregat-MT upper stage, as well as employees of the Progress RCC (manufacturer of the Soyuz rockets) and TsENKI. The issue of the departure of Russian employees is being worked out.

With regards to U.S. sanctions, Rogozin said that U.S. participation in Russia's long-delayed Venus robotic mission is canceled:
In the context of the introduction of new and the preservation of previously imposed sanctions, I consider the continued participation of the United States in the Russian project for the development and creation of an interplanetary station Venera-D inappropriate.

dom
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posted 02-26-2022 09:50 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for dom   Click Here to Email dom     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
RIP Russian Space Program.

SpaceAholic
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posted 02-26-2022 01:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Maybe premature. Assuming the Putin syndicate survives this latest gross miscalculation, anticipate a Russian, Chinese and Iranian space consortium operating in competition against ESA/NASA/JAXA.

328KF
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posted 02-26-2022 09:36 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 328KF   Click Here to Email 328KF     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
All of the space agencies’ rosy statements aside, they don’t ultimately make the decisions on the continuation, modification, or termination of cooperative activities.

After the past several days, it has become obvious that the level of outrage from the global community over Putin’s invasion is unprecedented in modern times. Things are likely to get worse as Russia pushes into Kyiv, and civilian casualties mount.

Given that, I don’t believe that past experiences with international space activities serve well to predict what might happen as a result of this.

SkyMan1958
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posted 02-26-2022 11:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I don't know whether it was meant to be a subtle statement or was just a coincidence (as Rogozin is generally not a subtle guy), but in the fairly long Twitter rant he went on, in the picture that I saw associated with Rogozin's Twitter rants, he was wearing either yellow or mustard colored clothing against a blue background. For those that are not aware of it, yellow and blue are the colors of the Ukrainian flag.

Last I checked, the Chinese are pretty good negotiators. With regards to Russia cooperating with China in space, sure, China will be happy to gain all the technological and operational information they can from Russia, at the lowest possible cost to China. Given that Russia now has literally no other option, one would assume the Chinese will be able to negotiate very hard.

Russians probably will fly to the Moon with the Chinese too, on a Chinese capsule launched on a Chinese rocket. You can bet the Chinese will set the rules and the guidelines for the cooperation too. Russians will be used by the Chinese as long as they are useful for the Chinese and then only kept on to the extent that the Russians are helpful to the program either technically or for geopolitical considerations.

Let's not forget, well before the Chinese Space Station was launched, the Russians approached them to have a higher inclination orbit, so that the Russians could fly to the Chinese space station. The Chinese told the Russians to pound sand.

perineau
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posted 02-27-2022 06:27 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for perineau   Click Here to Email perineau     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think Russians and Chinese will go to Mars as well.

Jonnyed
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posted 02-27-2022 10:07 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jonnyed   Click Here to Email Jonnyed     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Chinese now have a significant problem in their real estate market which runs 30% to 35% of their economy. Communist over-regulation and other factors have driven investors into real estate but now they have whole "cities" of empty apartments where investors did buy in but now nothing is selling and everything is empty and not occupied. The developers now can't get loans from the banks. The Chinese don't have a deep, deep stock market like we do or great holdings in Bitcoin. The bubble is going to collapse. The one-child policy has led to declining population.

I don't see the Chinese being great partners in anything in the future. More like bust. Just watch and see.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-27-2022 10:43 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
All of the speculation about who might partner with who in space going forward seems to be based on an assumption that Putin remains in power in Russia. The outcome of this conflict and what it means for Putin's future needs to be seen first before anyone can gain any insight into who might head off to the moon or Mars together.

As such, I'd suggest we keep the discussion focused on what is known: the current status of the space station program, which is about to be tested by upcoming crew rotation flights.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-27-2022 10:59 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
Further details about the condition of the Mriya have yet to be reported.
Sadly, now it has been confirmed, the Mriya was destroyed. From the official Twitter account for the country of Ukraine:
The biggest plane in the world "Mriya" (The Dream) was destroyed by Russian occupants on an airfield near Kyiv. We will rebuild the plane. We will fulfill our dream of a strong, free, and democratic Ukraine.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-27-2022 04:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
collectSPACE
Soviet-era space shuttle carrier aircraft destroyed in Russian attack on Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has destroyed a "large" part of its own space history, with reports now confirming the fate of an enormous aircraft that was originally built to transport Soviet space shuttles.

Once the world's largest flying machine by both wingspan and weight, the Antonov An-225 "Mriya" ("Dream") was parked in an open air hangar undergoing repairs at Hostomel (or Gostomel) airport, located to the northwest of Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv, when Russia launched its attack against the country on Thursday (Feb. 24).

Four days later, the news came that the one-of-a-kind aircraft was no more.

Jurg Bolli
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posted 02-27-2022 05:36 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jurg Bolli   Click Here to Email Jurg Bolli     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This is sad, what a waste.

oly
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posted 02-27-2022 08:34 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Sad news. I had the chance to get up close to this aircraft in 2016. Pictures do not do accurately represent the size of the aircraft. I hope that in the future it can be repaired or that it can be used to get the unfinished one airworthy.

SpaceAholic
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posted 02-27-2022 08:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Ukroboronprom estimates the cost to "restore" the aircraft at 3 Billion USD.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-28-2022 09:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SkyMan1958:
Do you think OneWeb will continue to launch satellites on Soyuz rockets?
An update posted today by Roscosmos suggests the OneWeb launch scheduled for Friday is proceeding as planned.
At the Baikonur, the Soyuz-2.1b space rocket general assembly has been completed for the upcoming commercial launch.

A meeting of the Commission is planned tomorrow to clear the rocket for rollout to the launch pad.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-28-2022 10:01 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
European Space Agency (ESA) statement
ESA statement regarding cooperation with Russia following a meeting with Member States on 28 February 2022

We deplore the human casualties and tragic consequences of the war in Ukraine. We are giving absolute priority to taking proper decisions, not only for the sake of our workforce involved in the programmes, but in full respect of our European values, which have always fundamentally shaped our approach to international cooperation.

ESA is an intergovernmental organisation governed by its 22 Member States and we have built up a strong network of international cooperation over the past decades, which serves the European and global space community through its very successful programmes.

We are fully implementing sanctions imposed on Russia by our Member States. We are assessing the consequences on each of our ongoing programmes conducted in cooperation with the Russian state space agency Roscosmos and align our decisions to the decisions of our Member States in close coordination with industrial and international partners (in particular with NASA on the International Space Station).

Regarding the Soyuz launch campaign from Europe's Spaceport in Kourou, we take note of the Roscosmos decision to withdraw its workforce from Kourou. We will consequently assess for each European institutional payload under our responsibility the appropriate launch service based notably on launch systems currently in operation and the upcoming Vega C and Ariane 6 launchers.

Regarding the ExoMars programme continuation, the sanctions and the wider context make a launch in 2022 very unlikely. ESA's Director General will analyse all the options and prepare a formal decision on the way forward by ESA Member States.

ESA continues to monitor the situation in close contact with its Members States.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-28-2022 11:22 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Kathy Lueders, NASA's Associate Administrator for Space Operations, said today (Feb. 28) that there are no plans right now to divert from bring astronaut Mark Vande Hei home on Soyuz, as currently planned for the end of next month, and that the International Space Station partnership is operating as normal.
We are not getting any indications at a working level that our counterparts are not committed to the ongoing operation of the International Space Station. We, as a team, are operating just like we were operating three weeks ago. Our flight controllers are still talking together, our teams are still talking together, we're still doing training together and we're still working together. Obviously, we understand the global situation where it is, but as a joint team, these teams are operating together.

Currently, there is no plan — it would be very difficult for us to be operating on our own. The ISS is an international partnership that was created as an international partnership with joint dependencies, which is what makes it such an amazing program. It's a place where we live and operate in space in a peaceful manner. That's really a model for us to be operating in the future and I actually feel like this is a good message for us that we are operating peacefully in space now.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-28-2022 07:34 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
From BlackSky, Inc. (via Twitter):
Antonov Airfield, Ukraine 13:59 hours local (UTC+2) today. BlackSky rapid revisit and analytics show before and after of destroyed Antonov An-225 Mriya hangar and increased military vehicle presence. Fire at nearby warehouses push plumes of smoke into air as conflict continues.

SpaceAholic
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posted 02-28-2022 09:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There is (or was) sub-assemblies for a second AN-225 produced.
On the outskirts of Kiev, somewhere between the city's Nyvky and Sviatoshyn metro stations, sits a drab industrial building that you could drive past a thousand times without guessing it contains an extraordinary secret.

Inside can be found the unfinished chapter of one of the greatest feats of Soviet aviation ever conceived. The only clue is the building's size. It's gargantuan.

...the second An-225 is about 70% completed. All the essential components of its superstructure have been manufactured, including the fuselage, wings, nose gear and tail.

cspg
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posted 03-01-2022 04:12 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cspg   Click Here to Email cspg     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jurg Bolli:
This is sad, what a waste.
And when Putin says that the Soviet Union was great, obviously excluding their own space program. Pathetic.

Blackarrow
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posted 03-01-2022 12:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Kathy Lueders of NASA says the ISS is "...a place where we live and operate in space in a peaceful manner. That's really a model for us to be operating in the future and I actually feel like this is a good message for us that we are operating peacefully in space now."

That sounds all very fine and noble, but it completely ignores what one of the ISS partners is doing in Ukraine right now, and if the U.S. and other ISS partners carry on as if nothing is happening, that is tantamount to approving of, or at least tolerating, Russia's actions.

Sport is also supposed to be a model for peaceful international co-operation, but international sporting authorities are now expelling Russia from competitions, a prominent example being Russia's expulsion from the football World Cup.

It grieves me to say this, but I don't think NASA and other ISS contributors can just close their eyes to the actions of Russia on planet Earth and continue to co-operate off planet Earth as if nothing has happened.

ejectr
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posted 03-01-2022 12:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ejectr   Click Here to Email ejectr     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think Dante said "hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who, in a period of moral crisis, maintain their neutrality."

SpaceAholic
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posted 03-01-2022 02:21 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Would like to be a fly on the ISS bulkhead, bet there are some interesting conversations, further stimulated during passes over Ukraine. Conflict effects on the terrain is probably visible.

Mike Dixon
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posted 03-01-2022 02:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mike Dixon   Click Here to Email Mike Dixon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by ejectr:
I think Dante said...
Love that... very apt.


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