posted 06-20-2007 11:42 PM               

Even if we accept that in his time signing, Armstrong autographed well over 100,000 items, how many of those still exist today? How many were lost to childhood collections, scrapbooks, classroom bulletin boards, and moth-ridden, humid attics?

More importantly, how many of those remaining are on the market at any given time?

Now consider that in this forgery-laden market, that any signature which was rushed or appears significantly atypical must also be discounted, even though it might be real.

With that mind, the "supply" seems much smaller; certainly small enough to be overcome by the demand. Armstrong is one of the few crossover autographs that are of interest not just to space collectors but to general autograph collectors and the public, too.

posted 06-21-2007 06:31 AM               

We have to assume that Armstrong realizes and acknowledges his place in history, -- whether or not he actively and openly embraces it -- by not favoring the public with his autograph at the present time. --One has to begrudging admire his stand on 'modern' autographs, and what people have done to manipulate him into favoring themselves with an example of his handwriting. --- We know that his signature currently sells for hundreds of dollars, and that more significant items can bring into the tens-of-thousands of dollars. That said:

I would be very surprised if Armstrong has not carefully arranged an extensive collection of material that his heirs will receive upon his death. Depending on the extent of the planning, and the stewardship of this 'collection', I would imagine that there will be no shortage of authentic Armstrong estate material released in the years and decades to come after his death. It only makes sense.

However, I would related the story of Eugene Field's manuscript of 'Little Boy Blue' as a cautionary tale. At the end of WWI, the manuscript sold for many thousands of dollars. In the height of the depression it sold again for close to $100,000. In the mid-1980's I bought it at public auction for $2500 [if memory serves] and gave it to the man who first told me the story about how this manuscript was the 'holy grail' of literary manuscripts 'once-upon-a-time'. Moral of the story? Who's Eugene Field, you ask? Never heard of him??? --- People and places go in and out of favor. Will Armstrong's name survive the test of history? Probably, but just as Lindbergh's fame has faded, so will -- to a degree -- Armstrong's -- as the next generation is 'dumbed down'. But the next generation will also have their new heroes: the 1st person to go to Mars, or Europa, or Titan or wherever, and as these events occur -- Armstrong will forever be alluded to as a 'first', and thus his place in history is assured. It is also assumed here, that Western society will survive and prosper, for we -- as a western society -- place value upon these 'things', and it is not clear if other society's would find as great an interest in the event and man should they be in power.

Prices will continue to rise, but what will hold down the price of Armstrong, and of all the other astronauts --- is the wide availability of forgeries, and the confusion they cause with authentic materials. (Again IMO). So if you want to insulate yourself from the negative side of things, I would suggest acquiring items which are inscribed, with lengthy holograph inscriptions, and impeccable provenance -- to insure that you have the greatest likelihood of having 'authentic' items in your collection. And remember, as in any market, the "best" material always has a buyer.

With kind regards, Gerard

posted 06-21-2007 08:51 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
Now consider that in this forgery-laden market, that any signature which was rushed or appears significantly atypical must also be discounted, even though it might be real.

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"1993 mail":

or "1994 mail":

,

while perhaps less than ideal, are 100% authentic and thus every bit as deserving of that designation.

posted 06-21-2007 09:58 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Lunatiki:
Even if I had the extra money, I still couldn't bring myself to spend $4000.00 on a signed image. Needless to say, it will be the last hole filled in my collection.

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posted 06-21-2007 03:08 PM               

IF I had $4,000 to spend I'd rather spend it on a number of items rather than an Armstrong WSS litho. I wouldn't mind an Armstrong signed (1962 style signature) X-15 portrait though...

posted 06-21-2007 03:22 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by gajs:
Prices will continue to rise, but what will hold down the price of Armstrong, and of all the other astronauts --- is the wide availability of forgeries, and the confusion they cause with authentic materials.

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Because of all the uninscribed Armstrong forgeries mixed in with the authentic ones in our hobby, perhaps the tide will eventually turn where easier-to-authentic, and more likely to be authentic, personalized / inscribed Armstrongs, and other rare and valuable astronaut autographs, will replace unpersonalized / uninscribed Armstrongs as the collector's choice. Perhaps collectors will eventually see the light, but I wonder.

posted 06-21-2007 03:32 PM               

This is a very interesting discussion: the huge demand driving prices high despite the large supply, the possibility of Armstrong preparing material for his heirs to put on the market, and the comparatively low price of the Wrights. I'll just add that I sadly must agree that the next generation doesn't appreciate the space program as much as we'd like them to- and I say that as a schoolteacher. However, "Neil Armstrong" is an absolutely universally recognized name. (Read the charming last two pages of "First Man"- how many other biographies do you think that young girl had?) I sometimes try to imagine what few people from our age will be remembered in hundreds of years, and he makes the cut every time. Christopher Columbus probably signed plenty of documents in his lifetime, but many were lost, and now his autograph is hugely expensive because we remember his explorations.

That being said... it is astonishing how expensive the signed photograph of a still-living person is. But like someone said early on, that's the market. There is hardly anything rational about collecting like this- it's all just paper and ink worth pennies. Because people agree that it's valuable, it becomes valuable. It can be fun or frustrating, depending on what side of the transaction you're on.

posted 06-21-2007 10:39 PM               

On R&R's homepage there is a list of the top ten items (based on prices realized) from the auction that ended last night (6/20). The book that was single signed by Armstrong was 9th on the list, selling for just under $9K. That's $9K for a book signed by Neil only! To put it in perspective, a fairly nice framed document signed by Thomas Jefferson was #10 on the list, selling at a price slightly less than the Armstrong book. So Neil right now Neil is commanding more than TJ.

I think the current high values for Armstrong items are due to a variety of reasons. One is that while Armstrong did sign a lot of items over the years, it is my opinion that there is a genuine scarcity of super-nice, high quality UNINSCRIBED items that display well. This includes WSS photos (which are the most abundant of these scare items), other photos and lithos (moonshots, X-15, etc.) and books.

I respect the opinions of people in this forum that prefer inscribed items (for authenticity reasons) but a large % of collectors (me included) don't want a photo hanging on their wall inscribed to some stranger. That, along with greater supply, is why you can easily get an inscribed Armstrong photo for under $1K. And stamp sheets and covers, while nice, don't necessarily appeal to autograph collectors as much as more mainstream items like books and photos do.

Since Scott Cornish started consulting for RR, they are without a doubt the safest auction house for high quality uninscribed astronaut autographs, including Armstrong items. They also don't overwhelm you with large quantities of high-end items each auction like some of the auction houses do, so the money spent on astronaut autographs is concentrated around fewer items, which drives the prices up. It's no accident that there is never more than one uninscribed Armstrong WSS in each auction. Other auction houses that focus on space items like Regency can overwhelm the market in a single weekend, which can often result in lower prices for each lot.

It's also my opinion that many of the people that collect space autographs are in a much better financial position that collectors of other types of autographs. The # of engineers, pilots, business owners, scientists, attorneys, etc. that frequent CS alone is amazing to me. I also collect sports and presidential autographs and don't encounter near the brainpower in those collecting circles compared to what is on display here. Many of these well-heeled collectors are amassing large collections of quality space autographs (I know because I've supplied several), so the demand in nice Armstrong items remains high.

So, is Armstrong overvalued? Rationally, I would say yes, especially when you consider the autograph values of other aviation pioneers like the Wright brothers, Lindbergh, etc. But Armstrong brings about a certain emotion the other pioneers just don't generate. That level of emotion may fade some as time goes on, but right now the sky truly is the limit. Ultimately the value of an item is what someone is willing to pay and it's hard to argue against the numbers we've seen lately.

My two cents......

posted 06-22-2007 08:41 AM               

There is no lack of authentic Neil Armstrong material to be found, and IMO, $9000 is approaching obscene, for a living individual, in a non-charity auction based situation. [Assuming he is a bight man, don't you think Armstrong has a warehouse full of these books all signed, and waiting for his heirs to inherit upon his death?] ---- Don't be surprised if you see a constant stream of these books now appearing at auction. Someone posted about Dale Earnhardt's autograph going to $1000 after his death. What's it worth today? Or how about the $20,000 Andy Warhol cookie jar? or the Jackie O. costume jewelry that sold for $17,000? answer: 1/100th of the price. -- Bright engineers or Drs, or whomever, it is just human nature to want to get a 'good deal', however -- This week at a major NYC auction house -- a signed Eisenhower D-Day message sold for over $20,000. I have one in stock at $6500. Exact same thing. -- Go figure. Any takers? --

Guide yourselves accordingly. & FYI - I'd take the Jefferson DS all-day-long. -- Best, G

posted 06-22-2007 08:49 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by gajs:
[Assuming he is a bight man, don't you think Armstrong has a warehouse full of these books all signed, and waiting for his heirs to inherit upon his death?]

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posted 06-22-2007 09:15 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by gajs:
...the majority of space material is just simply 'assumed' to be 'good/authentic' by collectors.

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posted 06-22-2007 12:42 PM               

However, I do suspect that some of Neil's personal collection may see the light of day after he passes. From what I recall, very little of the material that Neil carried to the moon has left his hands. I have to assume his family will inherit these items at some point, and some of it may come onto the market. Although I also wouldn't be surprised if his heirs hang onto those items and cherish them. They may not sell them because they know that Neil would not be happy with selling them.

posted 06-22-2007 02:25 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by medaris:
In the longer term, however, I wonder if history will view Neil Armstrong as more significant than Yuri Gagarin? At present, the price differential is enormous. As Buzz Aldrin sometimes points out, however, NA and BA landed on the moon at exactly the same time - Gagarin was on his own! I wouldn't argue that Armstrong's too expensive - the market will sort that out - but I do wonder if the current price differential will look strange in thirty years time?

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I suspect Armstrong will always fetch a greater price in the Western world for several reasons:

1. Armstrong's notoriety is very symbolic. He is known for "the step." Columbus had other people on his voyage too, and they walked ashore at the same time. But Columbus will always be more well known that his crew. Aldrin was there on A11 too, but he didn't make the first step and didn't have a famous quote (sorry, only space fans tend to know or care about "Magnificent desolation.")

2. Western culture tends to value Western accomplishments. And, to some point, Western culture is even very popular in the East.

3. Armstrong's step also symbolized a cold war victory.

4. While Gagarin was the first man into orbit, Armstrong was the first man to walk on another world. To many people, the true promise of space travel isn't low earth orbit, it's visiting other worlds.

Plus, among many collectors (myself included), knowledge of Gagarin's signature seems to be lacking. One theory states that he signed lots of items and that most of what you see on the market is genuine. The other theory is that many, if not most, of what you see on the market now are forgeries, and that truly authentic Gagarin signatures are harder to find. When a piece appears at auction with some provenance to it, prices tend to soar to 2-3x what other Gagarin signatures sell for.

While I don't collect Cosmonaut signatures, I would love a genuine Gagarin for my collection. I just an wary of what I see on the market (contrary to opinion that most collectors assume most material is authentic).

posted 06-22-2007 03:10 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by mjanovec:
While Gagarin was the first man into orbit, Armstrong was the first man to walk on another world.

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quote:

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To many people, the true promise of space travel isn't low earth orbit, it's visiting other worlds.

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posted 06-22-2007 03:28 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by 1202 Alarm:
Frankly, if Gagarin instead of being called 'Yuri' was a guy named Alan S. or John G., you bet that the first man into orbit would suddenly be a lot more important... It is now. .

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I hit upon that in my post, noting that Armstrong represented an accomplishment made by the West. And for many, that will be an important ingredient of the equation.

quote:

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Originally posted by 1202 Alarm:
You are perfectly right. But in 1961, certainly not. It is now because the other step was acheived.

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I was trying to explain why I think Armstrong's autograph is more sought after NOW. The step that Armstrong represents, literally and figuratively, seems to be much bigger in people's minds today than the step into orbit. Hence, the greater collectability of Amrstrong's autograph today.

Also, in my mind, orbit isn't as great of a step into space as is means to actually leave the Earth altogether, like Apollo 8 did. I don't think Borman, Lovell, and Anders will have the same place in the history books that Gagarin has, but to me, they were truly the first humans to REALLY venture out into space. It's one thing to circle the earth a couple hundred miles up and something completely else to travel hundreds of thousands of miles away from the Earth. (Not to take away anything from all of the Earth orbit missions...heck, you won't find a bigger Gemini fan than myself)

And while I believe the first human to walk on Mars will produce a highly collectable autograph, I don't think it will eclipse that of the first person to walk on soil that wasn't that of the Earth.

posted 06-22-2007 04:34 PM               

As far as a stockpile of signed items for heirs, I do not believe this is will be the case. If you read about his life and his authorized biography, I think most people will come to this conclusion as well. That is a just my educated guess, of course. He has never written "One small step..." for anyone and I believe that he never will. That is a man of great discipline and principal.

posted 06-22-2007 05:38 PM               

Does the 'stockpile' need to be a coherent effort? Not necessarily. But the comings and goings on of everyday life add up -- and he signs many of these. If you don't think that a man of his intellect and understanding realizes the inherent value of his life's work, then I don't think you give him credit for a lifetime of earned achievement. Just because he doesn't want to participate in the gamesmanship of getting/giving his autograph today, doesn't mean that he won't leave behind an organized legacy for his heirs. I have worked with any number of 'household' names in my career, and they are all aware of their "legacy" great or small. -- His legacy is greater than most.

Best, GAJS

Gerard A.J. Stodolski, Inc. - ABAA, PADA, ILAB
Historic Autographs, Rare Books & Manuscripts
Five Chickadee Court
Bedford, New Hampshire 03110
www.gajs.com

posted 06-22-2007 06:26 PM               

One could argue that Armstrong has been the most generous of all astronauts in giving out his autograph (with the possible exception of John Glenn). Figure that for every piece of mail that Pete Conrad got in the 1980s, Armstrong probably got 10 pieces of mail.

posted 06-22-2007 06:34 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by gajs:
Does the 'stockpile' need to be a coherent effort? Not necessarily. But the comings and goings on of everyday life add up -- and he signs many of these.

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Neil has made it known that he finds the commercialization of his signature very distasteful. Do not underestimate the determination of this man to stick to position, even to the point of limiting items that could reach the public after his passing.

posted 06-22-2007 08:10 PM               

Till then, the only Armstrong you will find in my personal collection are items which are signed and inscribed, and have strong provenance and unique association. Best, G

posted 06-22-2007 08:28 PM            

quote:

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Originally posted by mjanovec:
He doesn't owe us anything more. Period.

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posted 06-22-2007 08:38 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Lunatiki:
I guess you can tell the 12 year old boy dreaming of being an astronaut, who would love an Armstrong autograph, that he is S O L because he was born too late to get an autograph from a living person.

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posted 06-22-2007 08:45 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by mjanovec:
2. Western culture tends to value Western accomplishments...

Plus, among many collectors (myself included), knowledge of Gagarin's signature seems to be lacking. One theory states that he signed lots of items and that most of what you see on the market is genuine. The other theory is that many, if not most, of what you see on the market now are forgeries, and that truly authentic Gagarin signatures are harder to find. When a piece appears at auction with some provenance to it, prices tend to soar to 2-3x what other Gagarin signatures sell for.

While I don't collect Cosmonaut signatures, I would love a genuine Gagarin for my collection. I just an wary of what I see on the market (contrary to opinion that most collectors assume most material is authentic).

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As the citizens of the former Soviet Union achieve greater prosperity, they are buying back their history at an amazing pace and fervor. Just look at the record prices being achieved by Russian works of art, and you'll know this is to be true. So I suspect Gagarin's place in their history will be embraced, and his value will also rise -- probably dramatically.

However, after the Wall fell, many former KGB and Stazi agents involved with document production had little or no work. Many of them were trained forgers who have subsequently put their talents to use in any number of fields: bank fraud, check fraud, and autograph forgery. Here in the West, our lack of familiarity with the Cyrillic script, and the ability to read Russian, makes handling Gagarin material extremely problematic. I would advise extreme caution with any of his material.

The vast majority of frauds, fakes, and schemes that the ABAA notifies its members about seem to stem from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet block. Just FYI. -- Best, G

posted 06-22-2007 08:48 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Lunatiki:
Like I said, I guess you can tell the 12 year old boy dreaming of being an astronaut, who would love an Armstrong autograph, that he is S O L because he was born too late to get an autograph from a living person.

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posted 06-22-2007 11:07 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Lunatiki:
He doesn't owe us anything more. Period
You are 100% correct. Neither does Buzz, John Young, Al Bean or any other astronaut. But I am glad they chose to take the time to give back to the people who admire them that weren't even alive when they walked on the moon....

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posted 06-22-2007 11:13 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Lunatiki:
With all due respect Robert, I think its a stretch trying to turn Armstrong's refusal to sign into a life lesson for a young boy.

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Without getting too far off-topic, a personal story: when I was young, I remember going to a toy fair with my parents. On one table, there was a mechanical toy robot that I just knew I had to have. Like any garage sale or antique fair, the prices were negotiable but I didn't realize that nor did I understand why my father was so insistent that I leave the area while he spoke to the seller. I was so convinced that I wanted the robot that I threw a temper tantrum instead, which of course, ruined any chance of the seller lowering his price — he could see how much I wanted it and was betting on the fact that my dad wouldn't want to disappoint me. He assumed wrong, and my father left the booth, practically dragging me as I kicked and screamed all the way to the car and throughout the ride home.

Several hours later, still upset at my dad for not getting me the robot, he came to my room and sat me down and explained what it was that had happened in a way that I would understand. Now, I can't and won't say that I came away from that experience with a full understanding of the art of negotiation but that day has come to mind every time I have been put in a situation where it has been appropriate to haggle or barter over a price or agreement.

It's a life lesson that couldn't be taught out of any book or in any classroom and I am thankful that my father taught it to me... though I still wish I could have had the lesson and the toy robot — it was a very cool robot with light up eyes and a video screen belly!

posted 06-23-2007 10:30 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Wehaveliftoff:
Can you see Neil signing for the public for $50?

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posted 06-23-2007 10:56 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Wehaveliftoff:
Hank Aaron is signing next week for the public for only $50 and all proceeds going to a charity.

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