posted 02-27-2017 03:33 PM               

Editor's note: To keep the topic SpaceX Dragon 2018 crewed circumlunar flight focused on status updates, feedback and opinions are directed to this thread.

Please use this topic to discuss SpaceX's plans to launch a privately crewed Dragon to circle the moon in 2018.

posted 02-27-2017 03:35 PM               

Once operational Crew Dragon missions are underway for NASA, SpaceX will launch the private mission on a journey to circumnavigate the moon and return to Earth. Lift-off will be from Kennedy Space Center's historic Pad 39A near Cape Canaveral – the same launch pad used by the Apollo program for its lunar missions. This presents an opportunity for humans to return to deep space for the first time in 45 years and they will travel faster and further into the Solar System than any before them.

posted 02-27-2017 03:59 PM               

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Originally posted by Headshot:
What about tracking and communications?

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Does the Dragon 2 have a heat shield that can cope with the heat generated by lunar return velocities?

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posted 02-28-2017 10:15 AM               

Anyway, it will be easier to accomplish those tasks in the next 22 months than it was during the period of Nov. 9, 1967 to Dec. 21, 1968. And SpaceX will be flying related spacecraft and launch vehicles more than just five times during that 22 month period.

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Originally posted by perineau:
...for some impressive achievements such as reusable boosters

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posted 02-28-2017 03:33 PM               

Before doing this, Musk has to fly an unmanned test flight of Crew Dragon, then a manned one, without failure. In order to do that, he has to overcome the fueling with crew dispute with NASA.

Then he has to fly (presumably more than once) the Falcon Heavy. There are concerns noted by the aforementioned parties regarding that rocket too. Then he has to integrate a brand new spacecraft onto a brand new rocket and do the other things I mentioned.

And Jim, unless you have inside information and have actually spoken to the unnamed passengers for this potential flight, I think its safe to say that nobody knows what they have accepted and what they haven't. All we have been told by Musk is that they have made deposits.

Those deposits may well be contingent upon their satisfaction that there is an acceptable level of risk involved. Virgin Galactic has had many customers make deposits that have since withdrawn for a variety if reasons. I also find it highly doubtful that there will be one standard of safety for NASA crews and a different, lower one for paying passengers based solely upon what they believe is safe enough.

Twenty two months doesn't seem like much time to accomplish all of these things while allowing for some failures and some regrouping. And that's just the technical side of things. The FAA still has to grant the launch license and this is not something to be taken lightly.

posted 02-28-2017 03:50 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
I think its safe to say that nobody knows what they have accepted and what they haven't.

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I think they are entering this with their eyes open that there is some risk here. They are certainly not naive. We will do whatever we can to minimize that risk, but it is not zero. But they are coming into this with their eyes open.

posted 02-28-2017 05:18 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
This has everything to do with NASA.

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SpaceX just has to show that it has done due diligence to carry spaceflight participants. The launch license is easy, they just have to protect third parties like any other launch.

posted 02-28-2017 05:26 PM               

"I want to be really clear," stated Musk. "If NASA decides to have a mission of this nature be a NASA mission, then, of course, NASA would take priority."

"That's possible; I don't know if it will occur, but, possible," Musk said.

posted 02-28-2017 06:01 PM               

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Originally posted by Jim Behling:
SpaceX and its commitments to NASA for ISS crew transport are independent of this undertaking.

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posted 02-28-2017 06:08 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
I just think that he should say "We'll do it when its proven safe enough to undertake..."

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...that will have no bearing on the lunar flight then?

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posted 02-28-2017 09:55 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
...it is equally inaccurate to suggest that the lunar flight has "nothing to do with NASA."

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NASA is just another customer. NASA does not have a role for commercial spacecraft like the FAA does for commercial airliners. Actually, the FAA has the same roles for commercial airliners and commercial manned spacecraft. The only difference is the certification requirements.

It is no different than Airbus building a new aircraft that two different customers are going use. What one customer does with its planes has no direct bearing on the other customer. One customer may have a strict acceptance program but that doesn't prevent the other customer which may have a different and maybe less strict program from flying.

A launch customer for an airliner may want to use the plane for short hauls and has a rigorous certification program. That doesn't prevent a customer with needs for a long haul come in and buy the plane with an easier certification program and fly before the launch customer.

All customers of any product "monitor the progress" of other customers' use of the product. That is what a good buyer does before making a purchase of or using an expensive product. And any issues found during certification will be brought to all customers. But that doesn't mean there is interaction between the customers or that one customer can tell another whether it can use or not use the product.

Again, the point is NASA is just a customer. They aren't directing the Dragon project, SpaceX is.

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They are two totally separate, independent projects that just happen to use some of the same hardware?

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posted 02-28-2017 11:07 PM               

Is that what you are asserting?

Yeah. So you don't think that these two passengers would have some serious reservations if any one of the NASA Dragon flights or Falcon Heavy test flights failed? 27 engines?

The timing of any potential commercial lunar flight has everything to do with the success of the NASA-paid for flights of Crew Dragon to ISS.

posted 02-28-2017 11:24 PM               

FAA - CFR Title 14, Chapter III, Subchapter C, Part 460
Human Space Flight Requirements

NASA Commercial Crew Transportation System
Certification Requirements for NASA Low Earth Orbit Missions, ESMD-CCTSCR-12.10

And, the lunar mission is not tied to Crew Dragon to ISS. The lunar mission could fly before Dragon takes a crew to the ISS. Yes, the lunar mission could leverage off of ISS missions but it doesn't have to. It can have its own independent test flights and likely will have some.

And I don't need to read about the Comet. I was speaking about airliner certification, which has a direct parallel in spacecraft certification. Having NASA involved does not guarantee that a Comet type incident won't happen or be less likely to happen.

posted 02-28-2017 11:47 PM               

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Originally posted by Jim Behling:
The lunar mission could fly before Dragon takes a crew to the ISS.

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posted 02-28-2017 11:53 PM               

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Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
Musk said that the lunar mission will not launch before SpaceX has flown astronauts to the space station.

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posted 03-01-2017 08:05 AM               

Crew Dragon will be flight tested about as much as a Block 2 Apollo command module before Apollo 8 and Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy would have flown more than Saturn V before three men launched on top of that. Jim you make good points.

posted 03-01-2017 05:02 PM               

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Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
The end of 2018 is the target date...

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The press release didn't mention a target date, but did say "once we get commercial crew flights started," or something to that effect.

posted 03-02-2017 02:54 AM               

A particular peeve of mine is the way many criticized Spacex for the loss of a rocket and payload on the pad. Many said SpaceX "messed up" fueling the rocket or doing a hot fire test with a payload loaded. Hindsight is always 20/20 and also a wonderful thing. If people want to judge these operators they should consider how such failures and setbacks are dealt with and what corrective actions or rectifications are done and how the program moves forward. It's easy to be critical I guess.

posted 03-02-2017 06:48 AM               

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Originally posted by oly:
...hopefully guide the government into releasing more funds into manned space flight.

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...doing a hot fire test with a payload loaded. Hindsight is always 20/20

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posted 03-02-2017 10:41 AM               

SpaceX has had many great accomplishments — some game changing. They also have many great hurdles ahead before going out and making more grand promises. You don't see Blue Origin or Boeing out there making crazy presentations about 100 passenger starships or whatever. They go step by step, and manage their PR accordingly.

This is not going to be "Apollo 8 for the 21st century." We're talking about two billionaires (?) on a joyride for their own benefit in a spacecraft the US taxpayers funded. Its a mission that doesn't fit into any existing program and has no planned follow-on, which leads one to wonder what Musk's motivations really are.

posted 03-02-2017 10:56 AM               

For example, SpaceX did not say it was going to launch Red Dragon in 2018. It said "as soon as 2018" and that their target date to start flights was next year, but that it was contingent on the schedule for Dragon 2 and Falcon Heavy.

As for "making crazy presentations," history will decide. I don't think many people today describe Wernher von Braun's blueprint for space exploration as outlined in Collier's as being crazy, even with the knowledge that most of it didn't come true.

As for Blue Origin and Boeing, they have made their own projections about future projects, including flying passengers and payloads to the moon (Blue Origin's "New Armstrong") and moon bases (Boeing in partnership with Bigelow Aerospace).

As for SpaceX's lunar mission, the goal is not to test Dragon in deep space. The customers came to SpaceX with their desire to fly to the moon, just as other customers have come to the company asking to fly satellites. The mission fits the customer's needs.

posted 03-02-2017 11:05 AM            

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Originally posted by 328KF:
We're talking about two billionaires (?) on a joyride for their own benefit...

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As for Mr. Musk's "motivations" he has said on numerous occasions that SpaceX was created to make the human race into a multi-planet species. Perhaps, like I, he is also fed up of seeing no real progress in human spaceflight by NASA, ESA and Roscosmos since the completion of the ISS.