posted 11-19-2012 09:59 AM               

The Californian SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk has warned Europe it must replace its Ariane 5 rocket if it wants to keep up with his company.

The low prices the US entrepreneur is quoting for his new Falcon 9 vehicle mean it is winning contracts that in the past would have gone to Ariane.

Mr Musk said that the cost of producing the current European rocket would kill it as a commercial entity.

"Ariane 5 has no chance," he told BBC News.

posted 11-19-2012 11:17 AM               

If Airbus is going to assemble planes in the US, maybe it's time to do the same with Ariane. Then Elon Musk will begin to have sleepless nights!

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Originally posted by SkyMan1958:
In my opinion, it's better to fly under the radar...

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posted 11-19-2012 12:25 PM               

I believe Ariane has also shown the capability of launching mulitple satellite payloads on one launch (similar to Titan III and IV with trans stage capability) while Falcon 9 launches one at a time (unless they are small payloads). That can lower the payload cost a bit, although it does mean mission scheduling has to get a bit more creative.

Sure, Ariane V is a big system and is probably running into the same issues early shuttle had with commercial satellite launches versus the Ariane I through 4 series, but ESA have been at this game for quite awhile and have a pretty good idea what they needed their boosters for. Plus, until an Ariane 6 gets developed, ESA at last check had also built a launch facility for a Russian Soyuz class rocket in French Guiyana and successfully launched one late last year. That booster operates in a range and power class similar to Falcon 9 and launching from a facility closer to the equator means more up-mass capability as well.

posted 11-19-2012 01:06 PM               

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Originally posted by Jay Chladek:
In any event, I wouldn't be planning for Ariane V's funeral just yet.

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posted 11-20-2012 05:32 AM               

Who but the French would name a rocket like that?!

posted 11-20-2012 07:54 AM               

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Originally posted by garymilgrom:
Who but the French would name a rocket like that?!

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I agree with Jay's assessment - it's less expensive and makes more sense to me to upgrade what works instead of starting over.

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posted 11-20-2012 09:14 AM               

French Sen. Bruno Sido said to compare the SpaceX facility with the equivalent manufacturing operation of the Ariane 5 rocket, some of which is done in Les Mureaux, France, is to become fearful for the future of Europe’s launch vehicle autonomy.

“Visiting Les Mureaux is like entering an impressive laboratory,” Sido said in a press briefing here. “Visiting SpaceX, which occupies an old factory that once belonged to Boeing, is like entering IKEA. This company has already won many contracts, is well-supported by NASA and is building a low-cost launcher that constitutes a real and serious threat.”

He said Europe’s Ariane 5 rocket, which still needs 120 million euros ($160 million) per year in government support payments to maintain financial equilibrium, cannot suffer any loss of its current 50 percent share of the global commercial market.

...French Sen. Catherine Procaccia, who co-authored the report with Sido, said today’s Europe cannot afford to develop a more powerful Ariane 5, called Ariane 5 Midlife Evolution (ME), and start development of Ariane 6 at the same time. She said Ariane 5 ME does not address the commercial-viability issues of the current Ariane 5.

posted 11-21-2012 11:12 PM               

I understand the French concerns, but SpaceX is still a relative newcomer and a wildcard. Sure, they have the sales of 40 commercial payload launches on their account books now, but they still have flown Falcon 9 less than five times and are currently trying to sort out their engine failure anomoly. After 15 to 20 successful launches, or even just 10, then I might start getting concerned on the eroding of market share. And that is just covering Falcon 9 itself since the Falcon 9 heavy configuration has yet to even roll out of the factory.

I also get the sense that SpaceX is banking a lot on their COTS contract as they seem to have put all their lot into Falcon 9 (since it is needed for Dragon) and have seemingly abandoned Falcon 1 entirely from what it looks like. Some people tend to not like European governments for subsidizing commercial interests, but one might very well consider SpaceX's relationship with NASA to be a form of government subsidy as well since they are using their contract money to continue development of a booster that can be used for more than just Dragon flights to the ISS.

posted 11-22-2012 08:46 PM               

Ministers secured investments for the detailed definition studies of the new launcher Ariane 6 and the continuation of the development of Ariane 5 ME adapted, with the goal to develop as many commonalities as possible between the two launchers. These activities are funded for two years with a decision on the continuation of both launchers to be taken in 2014.