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Author
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Topic: Kosmos 482 (Venus lander) falling back to Earth
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Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 04-28-2025 04:32 PM
Kosmos 482, a Soviet-era Venera lander that failed to depart for Venus in 1972, is falling back to Earth. The upper stage of the Soyuz booster launching that Venus probe cut off prematurely, leaving the payload marooned in Earth orbit. But there is new news for this old probe: "In about two weeks from now, on or near May 9-10, an unusual uncontrolled reentry will happen." That's the report from satellite watcher Marco Langbroek of the Netherlands. He has been taking telescopic looks at the errant, Earth-circling Cosmos 482 remains for numbers of years.And one hot topic to ponder is whether that landing module intended for Venus, custom-made to withstand reentry through the thick Venus atmosphere, might survive reentry through Earth's atmosphere intact. As Langbroek reports, the Venus probe had a parachute for the upper Venusian atmosphere dive, "but I wouldn't bet on that working now, and would assume that, if it survives re-entry, it would come down hard."  Above: Venera 8 descent module model. Cosmos 382 was the sister craft to Venera 8. |
Blackarrow Member Posts: 3839 From: Belfast, United Kingdom Registered: Feb 2002
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posted 04-28-2025 07:14 PM
A ghost from yesteryear... |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-07-2025 12:02 PM
University of Colorado, Boulder release A Soviet spacecraft is crashing to Earth this week. These researchers are tracking its pathScientists believe the spacecraft will likely land in the ocean, but predicting the exact spot is difficult. Later this week, a piece of Cold War space history is expected to return to Earth—although where it will land remains unclear. Scientists estimate that Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft that launched from Earth in 1972 with plans to land on Venus, will reenter Earth's atmosphere sometime this weekend. The spacecraft, which was fortified to withstand the extreme conditions at the surface of Venus, will likely reach Earth's surface intact. Don't panic: The odds that this relic will land in a populated area are very low, said Marcin Pilinski, a research scientist at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder. "It's an infinitesimally small number," Pilinski said. "It will very likely land in the ocean." He's keeping a close eye. Pilinski is part of a team of scientists that has tracked Kosmos 482 as it orbited Earth. They include Shaylah Mutschler, director of the space weather division for the company Space Environment Technologies, and Charles Constant, a doctoral student at University College London. It's a story five decades in the making: Kosmos 482 set out for Venus in March 1972, but, due to an unknown error with its rockets, never made it far. Today, it orbits the planet in what scientists call an "eccentric" orbit, similar in shape to a stretched-out rubber band. Because of Cold War secrecy, the researchers aren't sure how big the spacecraft is. But estimates suggest it's more than meter (almost 3.5 feet) wide and weighs about 495 kilograms (1,090 pounds). "It was supposed to escape the sphere of influence of Earth," said Mutschler, who earned her doctorate in aerospace engineering sciences from CU Boulder in 2022. "It didn't quite do enough to get out." Predicting where the spacecraft will crash is difficult. In part, that's because the space weather above Earth can change a lot. During events called solar storms, for example, the sun releases intense bursts of energy that can cause our planet's atmosphere to inflate like a balloon. "People who monitor asteroids to see if they will potentially impact Earth actually have an easier job," Pilinski said. "Those objects would enter at a really steep angle. They're not skimming part of the atmosphere for days or weeks like this spacecraft." |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-08-2025 10:59 AM
ESA's Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of the descent craft will take place at 3:12 a.m. EDT (0712 GMT or 09:12 CEST) on Saturday, May 10, 2025.The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 13.67 hours. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-08-2025 04:07 PM
Aerospace Corporation is now tracking Kosmos 482's reentry.As of this post, they have it coming down on Saturday (May 10) at 1:54 a.m. EDT (0554 GMT) ± 9 hours. At that time, it would fall into the mid-Atlantic Ocean. |
SpaceAholic Member Posts: 5464 From: Sierra Vista, Arizona Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-08-2025 05:18 PM
Reentry window track runs close to my house. Would be awfully convenient if it lands just outside the collection room. Clearing an area on one of the shelves just in case. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-09-2025 12:03 PM
Sorry to say, Scott, Arizona is no longer in the fall zone, but just off shore Houston remains a possibility in the latest track from Aerospace Corp.The predicted reentry time is now Saturday (May 10) 2:11 a.m. EDT (0611 GMT) ± 4 hours. |
Blackarrow Member Posts: 3839 From: Belfast, United Kingdom Registered: Feb 2002
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posted 05-09-2025 12:07 PM
The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 13.67 hours. This reminds me of Mr Spock saying something like: "Captain, impact will take place in approximately 29.53769 seconds." |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 06:40 AM
Roscosmos release Kosmos-482 spacecraft left orbit and fell into the oceanThe Kosmos-482 spacecraft, launched in 1972, ceased to exist, leaving orbit and falling into the Indian Ocean. The descent of the spacecraft was monitored by the Automated Warning System for Hazardous Situations in Near-Earth Space. According to calculations by specialists from TsNIIMash (part of Roscosmos), the spacecraft entered the dense layers of the atmosphere at 9:24 Moscow time [0624 GMT or 2:24 a.m. EDT], 560 km west of Middle Andaman Island, and fell into the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta. The spacecraft was launched in the spring of 1972 to study Venus, but due to a malfunction of the booster block, it remained in a high elliptical orbit of the Earth, gradually approaching the planet. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 06:45 AM
ESA Space Debris Office release Status 10 May 09:56 CESTAs the descent craft was not spotted by radar over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST [3:32 a.m. EDT] pass, it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred. Status 10 May 08:35 CEST The descent craft was seen by radar systems over Germany at approximately 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC [12:04 a.m. and 2:04 a.m. EDT], corresponding to 06:30 CEST and 08:04 CEST, respectively. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 06:48 AM
From satellite tracker Jonathan McDowell: According to US Space Force (space-track) their latest estimate for the K482SA reentry is between 0520 and 0544 UTC [1:20 a.m. and 1:44 a.m. EDT], over the Pacific.This US estimate is of course not consistent with the ESA and Roskosmos reports. |
Axman Member Posts: 758 From: Derbyshire UK Registered: Mar 2023
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posted 05-10-2025 07:20 AM
Given the highly elliptical orbit and perigee timing, the re-entry angle was most probably quite shallow, and it could be consistent with debris falling anywhere from Socotra south-westwards over the Indian Ocean before falling in a wide arc to the west of the Andamans and into the mid southwestern Pacific. The debris field could be, and probably is, extensive in track and area, but minimal in mass amounts over any one particular place.The interesting point, which we'll probably never know, is whether the Venus lander portion remained intact and if so where that landed. I'm presuming that the lander segment was gravity stabilised, but I doubt very much whether the peripheral parts were. It all depends on how much of the Kosmos was extraneous baggage the lander had which was still firmly attached to the descent module. The greater the ratio of Kosmos/Venus lander, the more likely to have a catastrophic breakup with fewer large parts surviving reentry. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 08:04 AM
The main body of Kosmos 482 reentered Earth's atmosphere in 1981. From what I have seen reported, the only part that returned today was the descent capsule, which was designed to survive a much more challenging reentry into Venus' atmosphere. As such, there was no expectation for a wide debris field, only a single impact. |
Axman Member Posts: 758 From: Derbyshire UK Registered: Mar 2023
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posted 05-10-2025 09:00 AM
The main body of Kosmos 482 that re-entered in sections between 1972 and 1981 was the "launch bus".The early (Korolev) Soviet probes were quite complicated affairs. The orbital parts, excepting the upper stage of the launch rocket, consisted of a single mass (unlike for example the Apollo spacecraft where the CSM needed to manoeuvre and dock with the LM to become a single mass). That mass had separate parts. There was an orbital launch platform and a space probe section. The launch platform was Kosmos 482. Only when successfully on the way to Venus would the space probe portion become Venera "8" - it never managed that. Because of Soviet secrecy it is unknown as to the exact components of the Venera part of Kosmos 482, but it can be stated quite categorically that it didn't consist solely of the "lander". The lander could not have made it from Earth to Venus on its own. When the spaceprobe portion of Kosmos 482 failed to leave Earth orbit the space probe was still intact. It would have had a detachable parachute module, a communications module, a thruster and a a mid course engine at the very least. If it was similar to Venera 7 it would also have had an Orbiter and a relay module. What reentered today was not just the failed Venera descent module. There was no reason or opportunity for the Venera descent module to separate from the Venera space probe until it reached Venus. The launch bus (Kosmos 482) burnt up in 1981, the space probe that would have been Venera 8 but still had the designation Kosmos 482 burnt up in its entirety today. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 09:10 AM
From Anatoly Zak, who runs RussianSpaceWeb: At the end of June 1972, an additional object apparently separated from the spacecraft: it was officially identified by NORAD as a fragment, but, early on, independent observers suggested that it was the lander jettisoned from the main craft, even though, it could not be confirmed. It was believed that the main spacecraft had reentered on May 5, 1981, while its fragment remained in orbit until 2025. ...For nearly half a century, most assessments of the Kosmos-482 fate were based on Western tracking data, but it was impossible to tell for sure under what circumstances the observable objects had been generated and, in particular, why the lander, intended to separate from the orbital module on approach to Venus seemingly detached from its "mother ship" in orbit around the Earth. The all-but-certain answer came with a contemporaneous document declassified in 2016 but not available to general public until 2022. As it transpired, on April 28, 1972, or nearly a month after the Venera-72 No. 671 probe got stranded in Earth's orbit, the State Commission overseeing the project held a meeting where it reviewed and discussed the status of the two Venera-72 probes — Vehicle No. 670, which was heading to Venus as planned, as well as the situation with Vehicle No. 671, left functioning but stranded in a useless orbit around the Earth under the cover name Kosmos-482. In its official decision, signed by the commission chairman General Mrykin, mission management directed the flight control team of the Chief Operational Control Group, GOGU, and the engineering team at Lavochkin design bureau, among other things, to perform the separation of the Descent Module from the Orbital Module of Vehicle No. 671. The operation could be planned as a test or, possibly, in an effort to reduce the mass of the spacecraft ahead of its inevitable reentry, because, the document instructed the control team to discontinue all operations with Vehicle No. 671 after the separation. The decision noted that the date for the split between the orbital and descent modules was to be coordinated between GOGU, Lavochkin and the State Commission later, thus implying that, as of April 28, 1972, the "mother ship" and the lander were still flying as one spacecraft. Therefore, the document essentially confirmed that the fifth fragment, cataloged by the US military in June 1972 as No. 6073 (International designation 1972-023E) was the 480-kilogram egg-shaped Venus lander separated from the main spacecraft of the stranded Venera-72 probe. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 09:57 AM
collectSPACE Soviet Venus probe Kosmos 482 plunges back to Earth 53 years after failed launchA capsule that was sent into space to land on a planet has finally done so — only on the wrong world and 53 years late. The Kosmos 482 uncrewed spacecraft, which the former Soviet Union intended to touch down on Venus, instead returned to Earth on Saturday (May 10).  |
Axman Member Posts: 758 From: Derbyshire UK Registered: Mar 2023
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posted 05-10-2025 10:00 AM
The report from Anatoly Zak: that is one perspective of a number of possible interpretations, and to be truthful taken with an entire pinchful of salt. Did the so called test separation occur successfully one wonders? There is no historically confirmed report of this.The Royal Aircraft Establishment satellite tables has the fragment 1972-23E as having separated from the 1972-23C and had an apogee of a mere 237km. That could not possibly be a fragment of the Venera space probe and therefore isn't the descent module. No other fragments are recorded in the RAE tables. Cosmos 482 had five trackable parts in the RAE tables: - A was the failed Venera launch bus. It had an orbit of 209x8589km. The launch bus descended in 1981
- B was the launcher rocket upper stage, 196x215km which descended 1972
- C was the Kosmos 482 launcher, 179x237km, descended 1972
- D was a cylinder, 207x9767km, still in orbit in 1985 with an estimated lifespan of +10 years. It is what came down today.
- Fragment E had no further information in the RAE tables and is basically a phantom
Also, Ralph Vandeberghs' photos show a substantial cylindrical object with multiple bits falling away. Neither of those sources correspond with what the Russian space website claims.Plus, if there isn't a widespread but sparse debris field, how do the Russian, European and American accounts of where the craft has landed reconcile? |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 54571 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 10:33 AM
All of the landing reports are based on predictions, not an observed reentry, so they don't need to reconcile. I have known Anatoly for as long as this site has existed. He and I used to write for Space.com at their offices in New York. What he writes is based on a solid research and documentation (such as the declassified report). While he is just as subject to making errors as are we all, I do not see any reason to doubt what he writes on this subject. |
Axman Member Posts: 758 From: Derbyshire UK Registered: Mar 2023
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posted 05-10-2025 10:57 AM
I also have nothing to doubt about what he writes. But, his writing in this case is based on reports that emerged many years after the so called events. Reports written by a secretive society obsessed with historical facts that would show them in a favourable light.I would pose this one question to you (and him): if indeed the Soviet hierarchy ordered a test to seperate the failed Venus lander, and that test was successful, why did the lander continue to orbit the Earth and didn't actually land (on Earth)? Why was it still orbiting until yesterday? As I say, I have no reason to doubt your friend, but the contemporaneus RAE tables tell a different tale than the release of secretive Soviet documents decades after the facts. And, let us be quite clear- your friend doesn't actually say the documents state the separation occurred, in fact the opposite: "The decision noted that the date for the split between the orbital and descent modules was to be coordinated between GOGU, Lavochkin and the State Commission later, thus implying that, as of April 28, 1972, the "mother ship" and the lander were still flying as one spacecraft." The Fragment E is not the craft that came down today. Part D of the internationally recognised space catalogue descended today. |
oly Member Posts: 1494 From: Perth, Western Australia Registered: Apr 2015
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posted 05-10-2025 07:49 PM
Given just how long the probe was in orbit, someone must have calculated the mass of the orbiting object, which would give us an idea of what came down today.I will go and check my backyard later today to see if I have a Soviet robotic probe out there. |
SpaceAholic Member Posts: 5464 From: Sierra Vista, Arizona Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 05-10-2025 08:13 PM
You'll probably locate it next to undiscovered Skylab debris. |
issman1 Member Posts: 1171 From: UK Registered: Apr 2005
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posted 05-12-2025 02:50 PM
It's possible Kosmos 482 re-entered high above the south of England then fell into the English Channel, or North Sea, which would explain why there was no radar contact over Germany when expected. |
Axman Member Posts: 758 From: Derbyshire UK Registered: Mar 2023
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posted 05-13-2025 04:41 AM
I think it highly likely we would know if that had occurred. London Heathrow, London Gatwick, Paris Charles de Gaulle, and Amsterdam Schipol along with many peripheral international airports in a circle around them have the densest air traffic patterns on the planet and are fully covered by both military and commercial radar facilities. |
Axman Member Posts: 758 From: Derbyshire UK Registered: Mar 2023
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posted 05-18-2025 04:23 AM
There is video captured by Fraunhofer FHR in Germany of last radar imagery of Kosmos 482 before it re-entered. You can view it here. | |
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