posted 08-13-2021 10:23 AM               

Here is a translation of the relevant part of the article, completed by Rob Mitchell for Ars. The original article was published in the Russian language:

"Concerning the possibility of the hole having been caused while on orbit, it is necessary to take into account several circumstances, says my anonymous source. Firstly, the illness of the female astronaut, which is the first known incident of deep vein thrombosis in orbit, and the fact that Serena Maria Auñón-Chancellor had suffered the condition was published in a scientific article only after she had returned to Earth. This could have provoked 'an acute psychological crisis', which could have led to attempts by various means to speed up her return to the planet, according to my anonymous source. Secondly, for some reason unknown to Roscosmos, the video camera at the junction of the Russian and American segments was not working at that time. Thirdly, the Americans refused to perform a polygraph examination, while the Russian cosmonauts were polygraphed. Fourthly, Russia never had an opportunity to study the tools and the drill which are aboard the ISS to see if there are any signs of metal shavings from the hull of our ship's orbital module.

"Finally, and fifthly, of eight holes only one went all the way through the hull. The others were skips of the drill, which suggests drilling in weightless conditions without needed support. One hole was drilled in the framework (a transverse rib of the ship's hull), that is, whoever drilled it was not trained in the construction of the Soyuz MS."

... No one is perfect, of course. Astronauts are people, and all people have flaws. But the idea that a NASA astronaut snapped on orbit and decided to drill her way through a pressure module, with only vacuum on the other side, is preposterous.

posted 08-13-2021 11:27 AM               

Most likely a technician accidentally damaged the Soyuz spacecraft and sought to cover up this error by applying a makeshift patch, perhaps some form of super glue.

posted 08-13-2021 12:39 PM               

NASA astronauts, including Serena Aunon-Chancellor, are extremely well-respected, serve their country and make invaluable contributions to the agency. We stand behind Serena and her professional conduct. We do not believe there is any credibility to these accusations.

I whole heartedly agree with Kathy’s statement. I fully support Serena and I will always stand behind our astronauts.

posted 12-01-2021 09:08 AM               

Now, with the announcement that its investigation is complete, Russian officials have floated another conspiracy theory. In the RIA Novosti article, translated for Ars by Rob Mitchell, the publication cites reports that Auñón-Chancellor may have drilled the hole "due to stress after an unsuccessful romantic relationship with another crew member."

NASA, again, strongly asserted that these attacks on Auñón-Chancellor are without merit. "These attacks are false and lack any credibility," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told Ars. "I fully support Serena and stand behind all of our astronauts."

The reality is that these attacks are indeed false. NASA has known, with certainty, that they lack validity since the 2018 incident. The agency's space station program, based in Houston, was able to immediately determine that pressures began falling on the space station in late August 2018. NASA also knew the precise locations of the US astronauts on board the station before the leak occurred — and at the moment it began. None of the US astronauts on the station were near the Russian segment where the Soyuz vehicle was docked. US officials shared this data with Russians at the time.

posted 12-01-2021 04:33 PM               

The cynic in me is wondering if certain players in Roscosmos are pushing this narrative so that they will look good to their higher ups... all the way up to Putin.

Part of me wonders how this is designed to look good to the Chinese as, after all, the Russians will be working with them on lunar exploration. In theory one would think the Russians are trying to let the Chinese know that there is no problem on the Russian side... but it's those Western value NASA astronauts that are the problem.

posted 12-02-2021 05:49 PM               

Anyone with experience working on aerospace sheet metal structures will immediately recognise the chatter marks shown near the hole that can be caused by the chuck of a drill before the advent of keyless chucks. There are also marks that indicate that the drill bit "wandered" over the structure surface.

I do not know if astronauts have access to drills that have keyed chucks on the ISS, or if they have access to sharp drill bits. But to drill this hole in the structure on orbit would have required access to such tools, and to also gain access to the area inside the habitat module by removing the equipment that was removed to perform the inspection, otherwise, a hole would also have been found on the internal insulation material or machine marks would have been found on the first aid kit. It would also require substantial free time without being detected to gain access to the tooling, disassemble the interior of the habitat module, drill a hole without being detected immediately, reassemble the interior of the habitat module to a state that looked correct, and return all tooling without being discovered.

If for argument sake, this hole was made during an act of sabotage, the habitat module seems like a strange subject to target, because the module is abandoned during re-entry, and while burning up in the atmosphere is a great way of destroying evidence, drilling a hole in a nonessential component seems to me to be a ridiculous target. Knowing that the space station is instrumented to detect cabin pressure changes, a saboteur would be taking huge risks to drilling a hole through the pressure vessel, risk drilling into some critical component that may be positioned directly behind the structure that if failed by being punctured by a drill, could alert others immediately.

If a saboteur were intent on causing harm, would it not be wiser to target the crew module? Rendering one crew escape module useless would have a much bigger impact than rendering a module that can be isolated for the duration, and would be abandoned during re-entry.

If however, the hole was made in error during a post-manufacture installation of equipment such as the first aid kit mount, or the hole was intentionally made by someone on the ground prior to launch who only had access to the habitation module, then the pieces of evidence fit together better.

posted 12-02-2021 06:05 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by oly:
Anyone with experience working on aerospace sheet metal structures will immediately recognize the chatter marks shown near the hole that can be caused by the chuck of a drill before the advent of keyless chucks. There are also marks that indicate that the drill bit "wandered" over the structure surface.

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posted 12-02-2021 06:42 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by oly:
If a saboteur were intent on causing harm, would it not be wiser to target the crew module?

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As the story goes (and it is just that, a made up story), an astronaut drilled a hole in the orbital module of the Soyuz in order to hasten her return to Earth. Since the descent module was intact and the leak in the orbital module only posed a problem for the space station, then the hope (per the story) was for Roscosmos to order an immediate return to Earth by the Soyuz crew (including the astronaut in question).

Once inside the descent module, the crew would simply close the hatch to the orbital module (per standard practice) and return to Earth normally. The space station would be safe and the astronaut would have made it home without causing any harm.