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Author
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Topic: STS-51L: Would a delay have saved Challenger?
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Fra Mauro
Member Posts: 1587
From: Bethpage, N.Y.
Registered: Jul 2002
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posted 12-18-2014 11:41 AM
   
What if the launch of STS-51L had been delayed a day or two until the temperature was above 53 degrees F? Were the O-rings damaged by then and would they have failed anyway? |
garymilgrom
Member Posts: 1966
From: Atlanta, GA
Registered: Feb 2007
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posted 12-18-2014 11:55 AM
No one can know for sure, however the O-ring(s) failed as a result of launch stresses, and as they would not have been launched yet in your scenario, they should have been capable of performing adequately, provided their temperature was within their operating window. |
Cozmosis22
Member Posts: 968
From: Texas * Earth
Registered: Apr 2011
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posted 12-18-2014 12:49 PM
Yes, a delay until after the freezing weather passed would have meant for a successful launch. |
James Brown
Member Posts: 1287
From: Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Registered: Jun 2000
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posted 12-18-2014 01:47 PM
Can't say that for sure. |
p51
Member Posts: 1642
From: Olympia, WA
Registered: Sep 2011
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posted 12-18-2014 02:06 PM
I once talked with someone who worked on the investigation and he wondered if the rings being exposed to that kind of cold in a stack might have failed anyway, regardless of the conditions when the launch happened.Like other have already said, we'll never know for sure. Besides, if it hadn't happened on STS-51L, wouldn't it stand to reason that it could have easily happened on a later launch? There were lots of examples of side venting during launches before Challenger's final flight. |
Rick Mulheirn
Member Posts: 4167
From: England
Registered: Feb 2001
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posted 12-18-2014 03:36 PM
Had the weather been warmer when Challenger launched in my opinion the accident would not have happened.Would the O ring have failed subsequently on another mission, in my opinion almost certainly. Serious burn through had occurred previously and given the number of shuttle launches over the 30 years I think a total failure mathematically inevitable. |
p51
Member Posts: 1642
From: Olympia, WA
Registered: Sep 2011
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posted 12-18-2014 04:48 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Rick Mulheirn:
Would the O ring have failed subsequently on another mission, in my opinion almost certainly. Serious burn through had occurred previously and given the number of shuttle launches over the 30 years I think a total failure mathematically inevitable.
And you have to wonder what might have happened later, as NASA had intended for all types of what Mike Mullane called, "space tourists" as part of the crews. Could you imagine what would've happened to a 51L type disaster if there would have been, say another member of Congress on board or they'd actually flown a member of the media and had THAT mission fail?You could argue that in such a case, that might have killed the entire program right there. |
fredtrav
Member Posts: 1673
From: Birmingham AL
Registered: Aug 2010
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posted 12-18-2014 04:54 PM
Maybe a media person, but a member of Congress... no. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 12-18-2014 05:09 PM
quote:
Originally posted by p51:
You could argue that in such a case, that might have killed the entire program right there.
I don't think that a member of Congress or a journalist would have resonated more with the public than a teacher, unless the person in question was a very well-known and beloved celebrity in their own right, like Walter Cronkite. And even then, I don't think it would have killed the program. |
Greggy_D
Member Posts: 977
From: Michigan
Registered: Jul 2006
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posted 12-18-2014 06:07 PM
A launch after that date would have probably been successful. But with NASA's go fever at the time (one only needs to watch the 51-I launch for an example), we would be mourning a different shuttle crew today. It was only a matter of time. |
Hart Sastrowardoyo
Member Posts: 3445
From: Toms River, NJ
Registered: Aug 2000
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posted 12-18-2014 09:01 PM
I believe it was in "The Making of a Shuttle Crew" where Leestma was of the opinion if not 51L, it could have been 61E as the temperatures were cold around the proposed launch date. |
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