posted 08-06-2008 12:14 AM               

Let's say, back in the spring of 1970, Apollo 13 backup LMP Charlie Duke had never been exposed to German Measles (I know we have had this what if before...but hear me out). As a result, no change to the A13 prime crew was made and it flew as Lovell/Mattingly/Haise. A13 still returns to Earth safely.

Now, the backup crew of A13 becomes the prime crew for Apollo 16 but it's Young/Swigert/Duke. While in training for A16, the Apollo 15 mission flies and has is successful. However, Jack Swigert is so busy training to be Apollo 16's CMP that he never gets involved Apollo 15 First Day Cover Scandal.

Swigert flies as CMP during A16 and is assigned as the CMP for the ASTP mission (rather than Vance Brand) along with Tom Stafford. Swigert retires shortly thereafter.

Now, the space shuttle program rolls around. Ken Mattingly decides to stick around (despite his only spaceflight being the miserable A13) and is poised to command shuttle flights. The only major difference in the astronaut corps is that Vance Brand has no space flight experience when the shuttle program beings.

posted 08-06-2008 04:05 AM            

And anyway Slayton, in his final act as crew selector, made the recommendation to Kraft of Slayton Swigert Brand for the crew of ASTP around March 1972 about a month before Apollo 16 flew.

posted 08-06-2008 10:30 AM               

I know that Slayton had picked Swigert for ASTP following A13...so I would suppose that Mattingly might have gotten that assignment if he had flown on A13. Or, just assume that Swigert flew on A13 and hadn't gotten involved in the Apollo 15 scandal and was assigned to ASTP.

posted 08-06-2008 03:11 PM            

quote:

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Originally posted by RichieB16:
Anyway, my point was...what if Brand wasn't on the ASTP crew. How would that have affected the shuttle crew lineups?

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I don't think it would have changed all that much. Assuming the ban on rookie commanders after STS-2 was still in place I think that Brand would probably have been assigned to the PLT seat on STS-5 with Weitz commanding (moving up from STS-6 where he actually flew as CDR). After that, I suspect it it would probably just "bump up" the order of early CDR's... Crippen gets 6 instead of 7, Truly gets 7 instead of 8, Young gets 8 instead of 9. I think Brand would probably then get the CDR slot on STS-9 or maybe keep his actual assignment as CDR on STS-41-B which means someone has to slot in to the missing flight...probably Hartsfield or Fullerton gets STS-9 in that case.

Similarly, PLT seats probably slip one notch...Overmyer goes from 5 to 6, Bobko goes from 6 to 7, Hauck goes from 7 to 8, etc.

In the end, I don't think much really changes.

posted 08-06-2008 09:15 PM            

quote:

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Originally posted by webhamster:
...After that, I suspect it it would probably just "bump up" the order of early CDR's... Crippen gets 6 instead of 7, Truly gets 7 instead of 8, Young gets 8 instead of 9. I think Brand would probably then get the CDR slot on STS-9 or maybe keep his actual assignment as CDR on STS-41-B...

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All may well have gone as you supposed, except I don't think Young was in the rotation for just any old flight. STS-9 was Spacelab-1, a prestigious mission with major international participation whose high visibility required an experienced CDR in the run-up, if not the execution. Young, as chief astronaut, assigned crews to flights, and assigned himself to STS-9 on purpose.

posted 08-06-2008 11:53 PM            

quote:

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Originally posted by John Charles:
All may well have gone as you supposed, except I don't think Young was in the rotation for just any old flight. STS-9 was Spacelab-1, a prestigious mission with major international participation whose high visibility required an experienced CDR in the run-up, if not the execution. Young, as chief astronaut, assigned crews to flights, and assigned himself to STS-9 on purpose.

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Good point, I had forgotten about the "prestige" of STS-9, so then that would leave STS-8 open for another "experienced" CDR. So who would be available at that point in time?

- Engle
- Fullerton
- Mattingly
- Hartsfield

But then, I'm not sure what was going on with the first three. There must be a reason why they didn't get their second shuttle commands until 1985. Were they off doing something else?

I doubt Brand recycles from PLT on STS-5 to CDR of STS-8 so quickly, but I suppose it would be possible since there's a 10 month span between the two flights. But, probably Hartsfield gets it.

posted 08-07-2008 10:20 PM               

Mattingly was training for STS-10, which through various incarnations finally launched as Mission 51C. So he would be out for STS-8 CDR.

Hartsfield is in training for STS-12 (later, through various incarnations finally launched as the "new" Mission 41D.) So he would be out as STS-8 CDR.