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  Decision to cancel Apollo 18 and Apollo 19 (Page 2)

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Author Topic:   Decision to cancel Apollo 18 and Apollo 19
p51
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posted 08-29-2016 12:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for p51   Click Here to Email p51     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Orthon:
Maybe the American people never deserved the gift that such a talented, dedicated group of exceptional people gave them.
I've thought like that myself, sometimes, when reading accounts of the time on how the program was viewed by many people.

But history is odd, in that the loud and obnoxious folks get the ink after the fact.
Most people in the 60s were not hippies and when you account for all the protests of civil rights and the Vietnam war, for example, they constitute a very small percentage of the US population. Most people, in any generation, just go along to get along. I bet most thought the Moon landings were 'cool,' or didn't care much either way. The percentage of people who actively wanted that money to go to the poor were likely very small, too.

Someone I worked with brought this up a while back and I countered her argument that the money would be better spent on the poor by reminding her that nobody would remember getting that government check today, whereas all of the world remembers the money that was spent on Apollo.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 08-29-2016 12:57 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by p51:
The percentage of people who actively wanted that money to go to the poor were likely very small, too.
Rather than guess, Roger Launius' Exploding the Myth of Popular Support for Project Apollo looks at the data collected at the time of the missions.
At the end of 1965, the New York Times reported that a poll conducted in six American cities showed five other public issues holding priority over efforts in outer space. Polls in the 1960s also consistently ranked spaceflight near the top of those programs to be cut in the federal budget.

Ronpur
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posted 08-31-2016 07:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Ronpur   Click Here to Email Ronpur     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I always remember Kennedy's "Rice Moon Speech" and that nobody cheered when he said "Why do we go to the moon", they cheered when he said "Why does Rice play Texas". Pretty much shows the priority of most Americans, in the 60s or now.

Cozmosis22
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posted 08-31-2016 11:34 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Cozmosis22     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
That football analogy was fitting because the dream of the Owls beating the Longhorns during the 1960s was next to impossible. That's why the locals there in Houston cheered, laughed and applauded that line.

Had a bumper sticker on the truck camper when I went to the cape for STS-1 launch which read "There's too much apathy in this country... but who cares?"

oly
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posted 08-31-2016 11:52 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Astronaut John Young was informed of the approval for the shuttle program while on the lunar surface, this action gave the public some information toward the direction NASA would be taking into the future of space exploration. The majority of Apollo missions prior to this all had events that occurred during the mission that had the potential to be catastrophic accidents.
  • Apollo 10 had the lunar module snap into a violent manoeuvre during LOR.

  • Apollo 11 had powered decent issues and program alarms, fuel pressure issue post landing, broken circuit breaker.

  • Apollo 12 had lightning strike during launch.

  • Apollo 13 had the CSM O2 tank failure.

  • Apollo 14 had docking problems, Lunar Module abort light, landing radar fault, problems during EVA with astronaut exhaustion.

  • Apollo 15 had the S-1C shutdown issue, hatch seal problem, lunar module landing near crater tipping risk, LM Oxygen leak, astronaut heart issue and CSM landing parachute issue.
There were other issues in addition to these that occurred during each mission that were all part of the learning curve however the question of risk versus reward was being offered around by many people on a more frequent basis. There are many statements made by people interviewed in the oral history project that state that the cancellation of 18 and 19 had not come as a surprise and was expected by many involved and many lead to the view that the thought process was to stop before something serious happened.

I believe that the reason more flights were not cancelled is because it took some time for the management and government departments to get their respective points of view across combined with the above problems that were found lead to a view that the risk factor became to high.

Skylon
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posted 09-01-2016 07:44 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Skylon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
To add, Apollo 16 had a delayed landing due to CSM oscillations sparking concern over a problem with the SPS.

That said, looking back, was Apollo 17 the only lunar mission that was relatively fault free apart from the crew accidentally breaking the rover's fender?

schnappsicle
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posted 09-01-2016 08:11 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for schnappsicle   Click Here to Email schnappsicle     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I don't think it was a matter of administrators making their feelings known, I think it was more a matter of finding the cause of each problem and seeing what the best way to avoid it would be. Since most of the problems encountered during Apollo were man-made, they were easily preventable.

To me, the glory of Apollo isn't that we went to the moon and landed on it, it's that we overcame some serious problems to get there.

DFBrunswick
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posted 03-11-2017 03:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for DFBrunswick   Click Here to Email DFBrunswick     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim_Voce:
But who was responsible for cancelling Apollo 18 and 19? Was it a NASA decision or Congressional?
In January 1970, George Mueller canceled the Apollo 20 mission so that the Saturn V for that mission could be used for Skylab.

I have heard it said that Congress canceled the Apollo 18 and 19 missions in September 1970. But was it really Congress? Congress cut NASA's budget for 1971 so it seems it was at NASA's discretion to decide where to make the cuts. So they canceled the Apollo 18 and 19 missions.

Also, the NASA Administrator at that time was Tom Paine, who interestingly retired in September 1970. Was he responsible for canceling Apollo 18 and 19?

Skylon
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posted 03-12-2017 05:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Skylon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Paine may have been forced to carry out the deed, but for context it may not have been something he wanted to do, and more accepting the political reality. Paine resigned as NASA administrator in September 1970, the same month as the cancellations of Apollo 18 and 19. He was a Democrat, appointed by Johnson and it frankly sounds like the Nixon administration never really cared what his views were on anything related to long-term policy.

carmelo
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posted 03-13-2017 10:23 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for carmelo   Click Here to Email carmelo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
So, who made the decision? And he (or they) could decide differently?

Headshot
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posted 03-20-2017 12:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
From the Aug 17, 1970 issue of AW&ST, pg 14:
In a notice to the National Academy of Sciences' Space Science Board and to his own advisory board on lunar and planetary missions, NASA Administrator Thomas O. Paine asked for a recommendation by Aug. 24 on the course of future lunar landings. Paine asked the two groups to decide between these alternatives:
  • Continue with the Apollo manned lunar landing missions as now scheduled - Apollo 14 through 19.

  • Delete two of those missions - Apollo 15 and Apollo 19 - for reasons of economy and to preserve plans for a significant shift in emphasis of manned space exploration away from the moon and back to earth-oriented areas of interest by the mid-1970s.
It looks like Paine made the decision based on whatever recommendation these two groups issued. It would be interesting to go through his papers to see just how the recommendation was worded.

Maia12
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posted 03-21-2017 02:11 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Maia12     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
In fact, there was third option, which, according to David J. Shayler's book "Apollo: The Lost and Forgotten Missions," was to fly Apollo 14 and then Apollo 16-19. In other words, the Apollo program would have terminated with Apollo 18 and not with 17.

Headshot
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posted 03-21-2017 04:57 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I had not heard of that option before. Who developed that third option and was it ever formally presented to Paine?

I had read somewhere that Paine had been requested to reinstate Apollo 19, but do not know when that occurred. Sadly, the lack of emphasis on U.S. Earth-orbit operations bothered him way too much. Hence the push for what would become the space shuttle and eventually a long-term space station.

Maia12
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posted 03-21-2017 07:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Maia12     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
According to the book, the option to fly Apollo up to the 18 (the last J4 mission) was considered alongside not cancelling any mission, and cancelling the H4 and J4 missions.

About the request to reinstate Apollo 19, it was because Dave Scott, after his return from the moon, publicly suggested that those missions (Apollo 18 and 19) should be reinstated.

DR Oakes
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posted 04-26-2017 09:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for DR Oakes   Click Here to Email DR Oakes     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
There are now alive two generations of Americans who were not around for the moon landings...
My son is 18 years old and has no knowledge of the moon landings. Even when I was teaching in the late 80s, my students were clueless.

I think for Father's Day this year I'll force my son to go to the Pensacola Naval Aviation Flight Museum and show him the lunar module they have on display.

YankeeClipper
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posted 04-27-2017 02:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for YankeeClipper   Click Here to Email YankeeClipper     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Whenever the subject of budgetary pressures versus the cost of manned space exploration comes up, I always think of JFK's Moon Speech at Rice University on September 12, 1962:
To be sure, all this costs us all a good deal of money. This year¹s space budget is three times what it was in January 1961, and it is greater than the space budget of the previous eight years combined. That budget now stands at $5,400 million a year--a staggering sum, though somewhat less than we pay for cigarettes and cigars every year.
Compare the $450 million price of a single Apollo J-mission with the $111 billion expenditure on the Vietnam War according to this report. The costs of the ordnance going downrange and the weekly casualty rate on combat missions completely dwarf any potential losses of a failed lunar mission. Just consider the amount of money the US and other nations of the world were wasting on war, cigarettes, alcohol, make-up etc. at the time.

The spectrum of human activity on this planet is saturated with white noise, while the really important signals are few and often ignored.

Fra Mauro
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posted 04-28-2017 06:25 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Fra Mauro   Click Here to Email Fra Mauro     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Today, we waste even greater sums on pretty much the same items, and now we can include video games, and who knows when we will leave earth orbit again, let alone touch the surface of the moon or Mars. So why do some people think the human race is advancing?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 04-28-2017 06:45 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Fra Mauro:
So why do some people think the human race is advancing?
Because we can now do face transplants to restore quality of life to severe burn victims and those born with debilitating abnormalities. Because we can offer prosthetic limbs to amputees that tap into their own nervous system and can be controlled by their brain.

Because we have self-driving vehicles that are on the verge of not only revolutionizing human transport but making that travel safer for all. Because we have rocket stages that can be returned to the launch site intact, serviced and re-launched.

Because there are 16 year olds walking around today who don't know a time in their life when there hasn't been humans living and working in space. Because human built spacecraft have visited and surveyed every planet in our solar system and Pluto. Because a rover the size of a car is currently exploring Mars and a probe has just flown between Saturn and its rings for the first time.

Returning to the moon or putting feet on Mars are not the only measures of human advancement.

jimsz
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posted 04-28-2017 07:37 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for jimsz   Click Here to Email jimsz     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
At the end of 1965, the New York Times reported that a poll conducted in six American cities showed five other public issues holding priority over efforts in outer space.
Urban ideas, priorities and thoughts are often not the same as those not living in cities. Look at the voting patterns, cities/urban often vote one way and the suburban/rural often the other.

moorouge
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posted 04-28-2017 10:56 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
With respect Robert, those are materialist things. Might I suggest that a true measure of human advancement will come when the need to settle differences with bullets and bombs comes to an end and that all nations combine to eradicate famine and disease, recognising differences and yet still living in harmony with each other.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 04-28-2017 11:26 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I would suggest that the medical and mechanical ability to restore people's bodies to their full use is not materialistic, but that aside, if the only gauge for human advancement is ending all conflict — to bring this back on topic — then there should be no hand wringing over the cancellation of Apollo 18 and Apollo 19, as they were born out of a (cold) war.

moorouge
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posted 04-28-2017 12:39 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
...then there should be no hand wringing over the cancellation of Apollo 18 and Apollo 19, as they were born out of a (cold) war.
That is a powerful argument but possibly not a compelling one amongst space enthusiasts.

YankeeClipper
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posted 04-28-2017 01:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for YankeeClipper   Click Here to Email YankeeClipper     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I'm reminded of the French journalist Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr's famous epigram: plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose — "the more it changes, the more it's the same thing", usually translated as "the more things change, the more they stay the same," (Les Guêpes, January 1849).

Humanity, in the current epoch, has reached an incredible level of technological advancement in so many fields of endeavour. And yet today we are still dealing with the twin scourges of chemical and nuclear weapons, threats from God Kings in hermit kingdoms, genocide, famines, and disease.

Cash incinerated in the hot Vietnam war and cigarette ash could easily have paid for Apollo 18 and 19.

It comes down to will, priorities, evolution and a different and better vision for the future.

SaturnV
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posted 05-15-2017 07:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SaturnV   Click Here to Email SaturnV     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Frankly, I wish they would have kept 18 and 19, spread out the flights to one per year (15 in 1971, 16 in 1972, etc.), and keep the various Saturns in production instead of going with the shuttle. We'd still have a rocket production line instead of waiting for the current one to be built.

We could of had lunar missions until 1975, still had Skylab in 1976-77 and have heavy lift capability today. Spreading out the flights would have stopped the brain drain, and would have helped with expenses both yearly (one major mission per year) and developmentally (i.e. shuttle funds would have been used for missions and building new Saturns).

Hindsight is 20/20 but nothing here will convince me the cancellations were anything other than political. People were always complaining about space, even during Apollo 11. That will never change. But technology marches on.

Jim Behling
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posted 05-15-2017 07:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The brain drain was going to happen no matter what. One mission a year is not sustainable.

There was no need for heavy lift after Skylab.

Even if other missions flew, there is no way that Saturns (heavy lift) would exist 40 years later.

jimsz
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posted 05-15-2017 09:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jimsz   Click Here to Email jimsz     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim Behling:
Even if other missions flew, there is no way that Saturns (heavy lift) would exist 40 years later.
Saturn wouldn't exist but something would have. This would have given us an actual manned space program that did something other than staying in low earth orbit for the last 40 years. Also, NASA would still have the knowledge and capabilities to build rockets instead of trying to reinvent the wheel over 15 or 20 years.

SaturnV
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posted 05-17-2017 04:11 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SaturnV   Click Here to Email SaturnV     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jim Behling:
There was no need for heavy lift after Skylab.
Not sure how you can say we have no need for heavy lift since what is now being developed (SLS) is supposed to have heavy lift capability (heck, it even looks somewhat like a Saturn). And the Saturn I or IB could be useful right now... could have been real useful building the space station.

Also remember production line capability brings costs way down. R&D costs on the Saturn family (or any new rocket) was tremendous. Seems a shame to scrap it after R&D was spent and it was on the verge of production line capability, then develop something totally new. The relatively inexpensive although not perfect man rated rocket you can produce is better than the perfect rocket that exists only on paper.

Finally, I'm not so sure we would not be using the Saturn family right now had we kept them through the 70's. Look at the Russians.

YankeeClipper
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posted 05-26-2017 05:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for YankeeClipper   Click Here to Email YankeeClipper     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This is Apollo Spacecraft Program Manager Jim McDivitt's perspective as recorded in this JSC Oral History in June 1999:
Ward: Were you involved in the decision at the end of Apollo, at the end of the program, to end the mission at 17 rather than continue on with the hardware we had 18, 19, and 20?

McDivitt: No, I was adamantly opposed to that. And everybody knew it. And nobody asked me. And I think it was unfortunate. You know, we had this tremendous investment. We had probably $30 billion plus of 1962 dollars invested in Apollo at that time. We had the command modules built. We had a number of the lunar modules under construction. I think we had lunar modules up through Apollo 25 under construction. Some of them were just a few pieces, you know; but then as you got closer back down to 17, there were more and more of them. And we had — let's see — yeah, we had 20 — up through 20 all in, contracted for, and everything was ready to go.

We were even looking at reusing the command modules after we dumped them in the ocean. I spent six months trying to figure out how to do that, and I finally decided it was totally unsafe, so that we could continue the program. And we even looked at landing on the back side of the Moon, putting satellites up in orbit, and that was too hairy. I don't think we should have ever done that. But we had all these other things. And it was — you know, it was all there. I mean, it didn't cost much to fly one more flight. And then we chickened out.

I think that NASA top management just ran out of adrenaline, and they — you know, NASA's been accused of this a lot, and I think it's true, is that they want to get on with the next program. But I think that there were certain people who got the manned space program going who were afraid we were going to kill somebody and it would jeopardize the rest of the program.

Killing somebody on that — in that program was something that was so very highly likely that we, you know — you had to sort of accept that at the beginning. And to start worrying about it at the end, I think, was a abdication of your responsibility. And they did cut it from, you know, it went up to 20. And they cut 19 and 20 out I think it was, at one time. And then we had an 18 programmed. Then we cut the 18 out. I think a lot of people would have liked to cut — [Recorder turned off.]

McDivitt: The contracted spacecraft on the lunar module went out to 25. The — one of the conceptual spacecraft went out to 25. The contracted for went out through Apollo 20. And when we started cutting the programs back, they didn't cut from 20 back to 17. They cut either 20 to 19 out at one time, and then later 18. Or we cut 20 out and then 18 and 19. I don't remember the order. But we cut two out at one time, and one out at another time to get us back to where we were. And quite frankly, I think that a lot of people would have just as soon seen us end the program in the 12, 13, 14 area and not do any of the other ones, because it was very dangerous.

They didn't want to lose a spacecraft. They didn't want lose a crew. And they were afraid that it would jeopardize the future of the whole space program. But I don't — I personally don't think it would have. I think that a lot of people were — most of the people in the program were — would have easily accepted, this sounds kind of hard but would have easily accepted a loss of a crew and still continued on with the program because I think when we all got into it, we expected something like that. It never occurred except for the fire, but I know I personally expected a lot of failures, maybe losing crews, along the way. And if you didn't think that was going to happen, you shouldn't even have been in the program.

So, it was really unfortunate that we didn't continue on. I think we could have gained really great scientific knowledge up through 25. I mean, you look at a face — look at the picture of the Moon and there's a few little dots on it. That's hardly — just think what that would have looked like if we had two times that many, or even more than two times that many, which would have been easy to do.

Ward: And so, what you're saying is that: the public perception today that the Apollo Program was curtailed at the point it was because Congress cut the funding really isn't the total story.

McDivitt: No. I don't think so at all. I think it was a lack of drive on the part of NASA management and a concern over killing somebody.

Ward: And the damage —

McDivitt: It shouldn't have been a concern, because that should have been a concern the whole way through.

Ward: So, you think the desire to get on with the Shuttle Program and Space Station were factors?

McDivitt: You know, I think so. Yeah, I think so. I had a lot of difficulties keeping the Apollo money in Apollo.

..

Ward: One thing I did want to ask you, it takes you back a ways, but you mentioned that we were going to have the hardware to do 20, 25 Apollo missions as opposed to the 17 we actually flew. Do you think that we could’ve maintained public and Congressional support for that many flights if we’d kept going with them?

McDivitt: I think the news media interest was waning as we got deeper into the program. And could we have done 25 lunar-landing flights? I think we could have. We’re doing shuttle flights today, which are a hell of a lot less exciting than landing on the Moon. But still, you know, the enthusiasm for spaceflight in the United States today has waned a lot. And a lot of people don’t even know when there’s a flight up there, including me sometimes. So, it’s—you don’t have this “wow!” enthusiasm that we had early on.

I remember on Apollo 14 I think it was, after the fire, Apollo 14’s on its way to the Moon; and they’re having trouble docking the command module back on the lunar module when the lunar module’s still in the S-IVB. They’re on translunar flight. And we had live TV of this stuff, and you could see the—I’m sitting down at the Launch Control Center, and you can see the probe come in and bounce around the drogue. And it’s coming down a live feed. And I’m looking at the three big channels. There’s a golf match on one, there was a baseball game on the other, and there was a soap opera on the other one. And nobody was getting this live feed of us possibly losing an Apollo mission. And when I saw that, I— “Um-hmm, I think the bloom’s off the rose!”

But we went ahead and flew—I’m quite sure that was 14. Because 15, 16, 17, you know, we were still doing it. And I think that we could’ve done it.

Ward: Maybe it’s a mistake to equate public interest with public support.

McDivitt: Yeah. I think—well, no. I think it’s a mistake to equate press interest with public support. You know, public interest can be significantly different than press interest. You know, it—the press wants sensationalism. If it’s not blowing up or dying or something else like that, it’s—sometimes they lose it.

carmelo
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posted 05-28-2017 05:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for carmelo   Click Here to Email carmelo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I have read the interview of McDivitt and I think that Apollo 13 had not prpblems is probable that Apollo 18 and 19 would not have been cancelled. The fear to loss the crew of Apollo 13 killed 18 and 19.

Jim Behling
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posted 05-29-2017 10:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SaturnV:
Not sure how you can say we have no need for heavy lift since what is now being developed (SLS) is supposed to have heavy lift capability...
Just because we are building SLS doesn't mean we need it.

Saturn I or IB would be useless. Greatly undersized and too expensive. A "production line" only really reduces costs for high production rates and not a few article per year. We would not be using the Saturn family, payloads would be too expensive.

quote:
Originally posted by jimsz:
Saturn wouldn't exist but something would have.
It was called the Space Shuttle, Titan, Atlas, and Delta. There was no need for Saturn class launch vehicles for NASA anymore. It had met the goal of beating the Soviets to the moon, which was NASA's main job (not exploration)


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