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Author
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Topic: If there had been an Apollo 11 scrub...
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Obviousman
Member Posts: 438
From: NSW, Australia
Registered: May 2005
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posted 06-13-2009 03:01 AM
   
Going through material for my daily summaries, I found something I didn't know. I thought others might be interested.If Apollo 11 had been forced to scrub the launch on July 16, 1969, the next launch window was July 18, 1969, which would have meant a landing at Site 3 (rather than Site 2 - Tranquility) using a hybrid trajectory. All further windows would have also been hybrid. They were July 21 (Site 5), Aug. 14 (Site 2), Aug. 16 (Site 3) and Aug. 20 (Site 5). The sun elevation angles for those landings would have been reduced (longer shadows, down from about 11 degrees to 6 degrees) then back to the same for the last window. Site 2 (Tranquility) was 0 degrees 41 minutes North, 23 degrees 43 minutes East. Site 3 was in the southwestern part of Sinus Medii. The site location was 0 degrees 21 minutes North, 1 degree 18 minutes West. Site 5 was in the southeastern part of Oceanus Procellarum. The site location was 1 degree 41 minutes North, 41 degrees 54 minutes West. A scrub could have altered the way we remember the mission. "Houston, Medii Base here. The Eagle has landed." |
derek
Member Posts: 297
From: N.Ireland.
Registered: Jul 2002
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posted 06-13-2009 03:44 AM
And I've always wondered - what would they have named their landing site in the Central Bay? |
compass
Member Posts: 42
From: uk
Registered: May 2007
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posted 06-13-2009 07:10 AM
Talking about scrubs brings to mind another point I have often wondered about. Prior to Apollo 11's launch Tom Paine told the crew to take NO chances at all and promised them the very next lunar landing attempt if it was necessary for them call the landing off for whatever reason. I have often been suspicious of this. Just how viable was such a proposal? Would senior management have sanctioned this? Would ALL the crew have been fully committed to a second attempt given all the training and preparation involved not to mention the psychological challenge of undergoing a second attempt in full view of the world? Would the 11 crew have taken what Paine was promising them seriously? I have to also say that the reason(s) for the abort would also impact on this. Once a particular crew had had 'their shot' so to speak I'd have thought Slayton's attitude would have been 'Okay, who's next?' and the next attempt would have been handed to Apollo 12 and so on. In fact Alan Bean has recently mentioned this. Apollo 11, 12, and 13 were all training for the Tranquility site in 1969 so as there was the capability for NASA to have two further landing attempts before the end of the decade. |
John Charles
Member Posts: 342
From: Houston, Texas, USA
Registered: Jun 2004
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posted 06-13-2009 09:38 AM
I have on videotape a public commemoration decades later at which Pete Conrad declared that Paine also made the same promise to him re: Apollo 12, AND Lovell declared that Paine DID NOT make the same promise to him re: Apollo 13.As to your second question, the Administrator trumps the Director of Flight Crew Operations by a several steps in the hierarchy. So if Paine wanted Armstrong et al. to fly again, and if they were willing, then it would have happened. Don't forget, the hierarchy vetoed Slayton's plan to fly Shepard on Apollo 13, and also vetoed Slayton's plan to fly Engle on Apollo 17. Maybe 12 and 13 were also training for Tranquility just in case the 11 crew was unable to fly -- or refly -- their atempt. |
Lou Chinal
Member Posts: 1332
From: Staten Island, NY
Registered: Jun 2007
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posted 06-13-2009 07:50 PM
quote:
Originally posted by compass:
Would ALL the crew have been fully committed to a second attempt given all the training and preparation involved not to mention the psychological challenge of undergoing a second attempt in full view of the world?
You raise a good point.Aldrin would have certainly flown again (if they let him). But I'm not so sure of Collins. He has often stated, "I'm glad I got to go...once". If Collins wasn't willing to go, that would have broken up the crew. Now I know what what you are going to say, look at Apollo 13. Apollo 13 had the benefit of two successful landings before them. Neil was an unknown. Politics would have played a big part. But getting the job done would have played a bigger part. Lovell would have flown again, after 13. But he was well aware of the knives flying around the astronaut office at the time. I sure Tom Paine would have a lot on his mind, if Apollo 11 had crashed into the ocean. |
Delta7
Member Posts: 1527
From: Bluffton IN USA
Registered: Oct 2007
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posted 06-13-2009 08:19 PM
When Slayton asked Collins if he wanted to continue in rotation after Apollo 11 (as backup Apollo 14 CDR then as Apollo 17 CDR), Collins replied something to the effect of "if Apollo 11 aborts, I'll be the first in line volunteering to fly again, but if we pull this off, I plan to move on." |
Lou Chinal
Member Posts: 1332
From: Staten Island, NY
Registered: Jun 2007
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posted 06-14-2009 02:40 AM
If Apollo 11 had a launch abort, yes Collins would have another try at it. But if a Apollo 13 type of situation had arose I'm not so sure. |
Delta7
Member Posts: 1527
From: Bluffton IN USA
Registered: Oct 2007
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posted 06-14-2009 10:11 AM
I think Collins would have been more inclined to fly a "re-flight" of Apollo 11 a few months later, as opposed to training for another 2-3 years on the Apollo 14/17 assignment. But that's just my opinion. |
Max Q
Member Posts: 399
From: Whyalla South Australia
Registered: Mar 2007
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posted 06-15-2009 12:11 AM
I couldn't imagine not taking the opportunity to walk on the Moon. Was the training really that onerous? |
Mike Dixon
Member Posts: 1428
From: Kew, Victoria, Australia
Registered: May 2003
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posted 06-15-2009 01:24 AM
I guess it speaks to the ambitions of the individual more so than it does the issue of a return flight. For something that ended up only three and a half years distant (and who knows what that might have been in terms of a shorter waiting time had A13 not happened) I certainly would have held my hand up.Perhaps he felt others might have deserved a shot at it... |
tncmaxq
Member Posts: 288
From: New Haven, CT USA
Registered: Oct 2001
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posted 06-15-2009 06:31 AM
As far as launch day delays go it is remarkable that there was never a scrub on Apollo once the vehicle was fueled and the crew was on board. Their on time record was much better than Gemini. So when STS-1 got scrubbed on its first attempt I was stunned. I thought it's not supposed to be this way. Apollo and Skylab never canceled on launch day!  |
Delta7
Member Posts: 1527
From: Bluffton IN USA
Registered: Oct 2007
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posted 06-15-2009 10:21 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Max Q:
I couldn't imagine not taking the opportunity to walk on the Moon. Was the training really that onerous?
I suspect family issues came into play with some people. The training schedule took it's toll on family life and quite a few marriages, and some might have decided that family was more important than ambition. Collins is one of the few Apollo-era astronauts still married to the same woman as he was back then. So is Frank Borman who could easily have flown a 3rd mission if he wanted. |
Delta7
Member Posts: 1527
From: Bluffton IN USA
Registered: Oct 2007
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posted 06-15-2009 12:22 PM
Which also leads to another interesting point of speculation (since this is an "If..." thread).What if Collins had remained on the Apollo 8 crew? Assuming both he AND Borman were of the mind to leave after their second mission, who would have been available to serve as the Apollo 11 backup crew? Lovell would likely have been the Apollo 11 CMP. Would Slayton have promoted Anders to CDR? If so, who would have met the requirement of having a flown astronaut in the CMP position, even on the backup crew? Would Borman and/or Collins have agreed to serve on the Apollo 11 backup crew and then move on, without going on to another prime crew assignment? There weren't a whole lot of other options available to Slayton, other than possibly using McDivitt as soon as he was done with Apollo 9. He would have entered the Apollo 11 training flow late in the game, but having already commanded a LM in flight he probably could have caught up pretty quickly. |
Lou Chinal
Member Posts: 1332
From: Staten Island, NY
Registered: Jun 2007
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posted 06-15-2009 10:18 PM
On Jan 9, 1969 the crew for Apollo 11 was announced as Armstrong, Collins, Aldrin. The back-up crew was Lovell, Anders, Haise.Now it's time to play 'what if'. What if Collins had been on Apollo 8. Slayton didn't know how fast Collins would get back on flight duty. So the team of Armstrong (CDR) Aldrin (CMP) and Haise (LMP) was put together. When Collins came back into the picture Buzz already knew all the CM procedures, so he just stayed it the center seat. That's way the seating arrangement for Apollo 11 launch was Armstrong, Aldrin, Collins. The only flight the CMP did not occupy the center couch. I wonder what Slayton's plans were for a crew of Apollo 13, if the flight had to be flown in Nov./Dec. 1969? Would Borman and Lovell have been teamed up again? I think if Slayton had gone to Borman and said the nation needed him, he might have caved. |
Fra Mauro
Member Posts: 1624
From: Bethpage, N.Y.
Registered: Jul 2002
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posted 08-06-2009 08:25 AM
quote:
Originally posted by compass:
Prior to Apollo 11's launch Tom Paine told the crew to take NO chances at all and promised them the very next lunar landing attempt if it was necessary for them call the landing off for whatever reason. I have often been suspicious of this. Just how viable was such a proposal?
What were the chances that Thomas Paine would have made good on his promise to let the Apollo 11 crew fly on Apollo 12 if they had to abort the landing? I bet Pete Conrad would have loved that move! Editor's note: Threads merged. |
MadSci
Member Posts: 230
From: Maryland, USA
Registered: Oct 2008
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posted 08-06-2009 08:26 AM
I'm betting zero. Each CM and LM were different from the rest. This was most evident in the LM. The amount of training required for familiarization with the new LM would have made recycling the crew for the next available launch window pretty tough.Armstrong himself has been quoted as saying he thought is was a nice thing to be said but he doubted NASA would make good on it if the situation arose. |
Machodoc
Member Posts: 207
From: DE
Registered: Aug 2005
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posted 08-11-2009 09:18 PM
The twists and turns are huge. Personally, I think it was probably a "buck up" speech. Assuming no physical problems, can you imagine the physical exhaustion not to mention the natural letdown that might have sunk in after the first failed attempt? Remember, the Kennedy clock was ticking... |
Lou Chinal
Member Posts: 1332
From: Staten Island, NY
Registered: Jun 2007
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posted 08-11-2009 09:40 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Fra Mauro:
What were the chances that Thomas Paine would have made good on his promise to let the Apollo 11 crew fly on Apollo 12 if they had to abort the landing?
I wouldn't put more than a quarter on it. |
Duke Of URL
Member Posts: 1316
From: Syracuse, NY
Registered: Jan 2005
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posted 10-06-2009 10:47 PM
Maybe it was simply a pro-forma offer. |
jasonelam
Member Posts: 691
From: Monticello, KY USA
Registered: Mar 2007
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posted 06-16-2010 10:42 AM
quote:
Originally posted by MadSci:
The amount of training required for familiarization with the new LM would have made recycling the crew for the next available launch window pretty tough.
I've read a lot of information involving the promise given to both Neil Armstrong and Pete Conrad by NASA Administrator Thomas Paine: don't take too many risks. If you have to abort your mission, you'll get another shot on the next flight. (paraphrased)My question is if Apollo 11 had to abort, would they have flown with 12's hardware, and if that succeeded, Pete and Co. would fly with 13's hardware right? If that's the case, how would this have changed flight assignments? Editor's note: Threads merged. |
moorouge
Member Posts: 2458
From: U.K.
Registered: Jul 2009
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posted 06-16-2010 01:04 PM
I think several are missing an important point when it comes to second chances on '11' in the case of an abort. It depends, surely, at what point the abort call is made.
Isn't it almost certain that if the call came once beyond 'low gate' Armstrong would have gone ahead and attempted a landing regardless of the consequences? If so, where would '12' have been targeted? |
Delta7
Member Posts: 1527
From: Bluffton IN USA
Registered: Oct 2007
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posted 06-16-2010 01:15 PM
In my humble opinion, if Steve Bales had said "NO GO!" instead of "GO!" during the program alarm just before landing, and Armstrong and Aldrin had aborted the landing, Conrad and Bean would have made the next attempt. It's likely that Armstrong, Collins and Aldrin would have been given the option of going back into the rotation. My gut feeling is that Collins would still have retired, but that Armstrong and Aldrin would have taken Deke up on the offer and initially been assigned as backups to Apollo 13 or 14, then on to 16 or 17. Which brings up another interesting point of speculation: if Aldrin had subsequently been pointed toward flying as LMP on Apollo 17, he likely would have been bumped in favor of Jack Schmitt. |
stsmithva
Member Posts: 1940
From: Fairfax, VA, USA
Registered: Feb 2007
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posted 06-16-2010 06:20 PM
quote:
Originally posted by jasonelam:
My question is if Apollo 11 had to abort, would they have flown with 12's hardware, and if that succeeded, Pete and Co. would fly with 13's hardware right? If that's the case, how would this have changed flight assignments?
During Alan Bean's talk at the National Air and Space Museum last fall, he said that once the Apollo 12 crew was named, he knew there was a chance that they might be the first to land on the moon, if Apollo 11 did not do so. |
spaceman1953
Member Posts: 953
From: South Bend, IN
Registered: Apr 2002
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posted 06-16-2010 07:03 PM
Another most interesting and thoughtful discussion. My thanks to all the participants.I have only laid eyes on Mike Collins one time (Chicago parade in August, 1969 does not count, since I was so far away)... but he seemed well-assured that his place in history was pretty firm and that not making a flight after 11 was just fine. Neil and Buzz always look like they would fly anytime, anywhere (even today) that and if NASA had a craft for them to fly in/on. Just my personal observation! |
ASCAN1984
Member Posts: 1049
From: County Down, Nothern Ireland
Registered: Feb 2002
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posted 07-03-2011 04:42 PM
quote:
Originally posted by compass:
Prior to Apollo 11's launch Tom Paine told the crew to take NO chances at all and promised them the very next lunar landing attempt if it was necessary for them call the landing off for whatever reason.
The offer made to the Apollo 11 crew before launch that if they some how didn't quite make a landing they would be put on the next available flight to try again is famous in space circles. However it occurred to me last night that I'm not sure of the answers to the following: - What next available meant? Is this Apollo 12 launch vehicle and hardware or does it mean a future launch vehicle unsigned to a specific crew would be used?
- If the first attempt failed who are the crew/individuals losing out? Is it the Apollo 12 crew or a crew further down the line e.g. the Apollo 11 backup crew, a.k.a. Apollo 15?
- What affect would this second attempt have on the rotation and the program in general?
Editor's note: Threads merged. |
GoesTo11
Member Posts: 1317
From: Denver, CO
Registered: Jun 2004
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posted 07-03-2011 04:43 PM
Is there an unimpeachable source for that anecdote? I've heard it, and still find it hard to believe. |
ASCAN1984
Member Posts: 1049
From: County Down, Nothern Ireland
Registered: Feb 2002
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posted 07-03-2011 04:44 PM
...when we were about to leave on Apollo 11, Ton Paine flew down to the cape, has dinner with us. And said "look if you guys screw it up, don't worry about it, come on back. Well give you three the next shot at another try at landing. — Mike Collins |
GoesTo11
Member Posts: 1317
From: Denver, CO
Registered: Jun 2004
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posted 07-03-2011 05:04 PM
Yeah... right.I'm sorry, but that sounds like Paine slapping his boys up, trying in a sort of ham-handed way to relieve some of the pressure on them. Would have been interesting to see what would have happened if they had screwed it up...or if they'd been denied their objective by a mechanical or programming failure that wasn't the crew's fault. If Neil & Buzz hadn't been able to land--for whatever reason--and assuming they made it back, who here really believes that Armstrong, Collins, and Aldrin would have crewed Apollo 12? |
Henry Heatherbank
Member Posts: 250
From: Adelaide, South Australia
Registered: Apr 2005
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posted 07-04-2011 05:10 AM
I have never believed it, and it is interesting that by the time of Apollo 13, Paine's made no such offer to Lovell and crew. Maybe a topic for another thread, but can you just IMAGINE the astro-politics of Paine bumping Shepard and crew of Apollo 14 to give the Apollo 13 guys a second crack at Fra Mauro. The mind boggles ... But if that HAD occurred (or if the Apollo 11 crew had been recycled to Apollo 12 etc), what happens to the next crew? Would it have caused a ripple effect, where Conrad and crew flew 13 and so on? That is a serious question: did program management ever give any seriious thought to this, from a crew and mission planning perspective in the Apollo 11-13 time frame (ie; 1969)? |
GoesTo11
Member Posts: 1317
From: Denver, CO
Registered: Jun 2004
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posted 07-04-2011 11:30 AM
I'm sorry I missed this discussion earlier. Of course it's all "What if..?", but fascinating nonetheless.Henry makes a very good point re: Apollo 13. If anyone had earned the chance to walk on the Moon, it was Jim Lovell, with three highly successful milestone missions under his belt. Lovell and crew were denied a landing through no fault of their own, and indeed performed exceptionally in the resulting contingency. If anyone deserved another shot, they did. But they weren't offered one. I've gotten the impression from their writings and interviews that all three men, while obviously disappointed, each accepted their fate with a test pilot's stoicism: Them's the breaks. Just be glad you walked away, so to speak. With respect to Collins' and Conrad's claims that Paine offered their crews "mulligans": I wouldn't presume to call either man a liar, but I can't quite believe such a promise would have been made in earnest... or at least in the event, that it would have actually happened. |
ilbasso
Member Posts: 1522
From: Greensboro, NC USA
Registered: Feb 2006
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posted 07-04-2011 03:32 PM
All three crews (Apollo 11-13) were training during 1969, and NASA had three vehicles that could have been ready to attempt a landing in the second half of 1969. NASA was taking no chances on landing before the end of the year. If Apollo 11 had failed, Apollo 12 could have been ready to try in September, and Apollo 13 in November.Once Apollo 11 landed successfully, Apollo 12 was moved back to November and Apollo 13 moved into 1970. I believe that the Surveyor III salvage part of the Apollo 12 plan was also added after Apollo 11's mission was over. |
ASCAN1984
Member Posts: 1049
From: County Down, Nothern Ireland
Registered: Feb 2002
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posted 07-05-2011 04:07 AM
I am starting to think with all this discussion that Tom Paine's offer was like saying to a neighbor that you would help them paint the garage but when the time comes you will find some excuse not to. Just one of those things you say at the time to put someone's mind at ease but not really mean. The uproar and repercussions would have been massive if the offer was implemented from the office and the management team and possibly Washington. Did Deke Slayton or Chris Kraft ever find out about this and if so what did they think? There is an Option B though: that Administrator Paine meant every word and knew of the challenge he would face. |
Space Cadet Carl
Member Posts: 225
From: Lake Orion, Michigan
Registered: Feb 2006
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posted 07-05-2011 05:55 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Delta7:
Collins is one of the few Apollo-era astronauts still married to the same woman as he was back then.
And if you ever have the chance to meet Mike and Pat Collins, you will see how their combined sense of humor and their quick wit has helped keep them together all those years. Great couple. |
ASCAN1984
Member Posts: 1049
From: County Down, Nothern Ireland
Registered: Feb 2002
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posted 07-06-2011 01:45 AM
I was thinking and it is a possibility that the J missions might have been delayed and only one or two might have happened as they would have wanted more time for the hardware to prove itself. |
tncmaxq
Member Posts: 288
From: New Haven, CT USA
Registered: Oct 2001
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posted 07-10-2011 10:39 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Space Cadet Carl:
And if you ever have the chance to meet Mike and Pat Collins, you will see how their combined sense of humor and their quick wit has helped keep them together all those years. Great couple.
During the book signing Mike Collins did along with Aldrin and Bean at the National Air and Space Museum during the Apollo 11 40th anniversary, Pat Collins greeted some of us who had been standing in line for hours. She thanked us for our patience. Classy lady.I think Collins, Borman, Lovell, Anders and Duke are about the only Apollo guys married to their original wives. |
ilbasso
Member Posts: 1522
From: Greensboro, NC USA
Registered: Feb 2006
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posted 11-04-2011 02:43 PM
I asked Dick Gordon today about the reports that Paine had promised the 11 crew another shot if they weren't successful. Gordon said he had heard that rumor before, but he speculated that there would have been resignations in the astronaut corps if they had pulled something like this - it just wasn't the way things worked. "If you love that crew so much, then they can fly all the damn missions from now on, because we quit!" |
Fra Mauro
Member Posts: 1624
From: Bethpage, N.Y.
Registered: Jul 2002
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posted 06-13-2017 08:58 AM
Wouldn't Nixon have to agree with this? |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 43576
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 06-13-2017 09:24 AM
Nixon's only influence might be like Kennedy's over John Glenn, expressing to NASA that the crew was too important politically to risk losing on a spaceflight. But in this case, the opposite might be true — if there was a political win to be had, it might be to give the crew a second chance, demonstrating the "American spirit" of not giving up until successful. And unlike Kennedy with Glenn, Nixon wasn't looking to recruit any of the Apollo 11 crew into politics. |
NukeGuy
Member Posts: 55
From: Irvine, CA USA
Registered: May 2014
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posted 06-14-2017 10:32 AM
I wonder if Armstrong would have been interested in being recycled to a later crew if Apollo 11 had aborted and the Apollo 12 crew subsequently made the first successful landing.Armstrong was first and foremost a pilot. He even remarked that the landing was the success of Apollo 11. Not being the first man to walk on the moon. |
Fra Mauro
Member Posts: 1624
From: Bethpage, N.Y.
Registered: Jul 2002
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posted 06-14-2017 11:40 AM
Can you imagine what the critics of the Gemini 8 emergency landing (not many!) would have said if Armstrong aborted the Eagle's landing?
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