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Author
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Topic: Changing market for space memorabilia
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Dave Clow
Member Posts: 236
From: South Pasadena, CA 91030
Registered: Nov 2003
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posted 05-13-2016 09:19 PM
   
I just got a letter from one of the prominent auction houses soliciting my business as a consignor, and advising me that "the collectibles market is changing. It is no longer as robust as it has been in the past. I strongly suspect it will never be as robust again. The older collector generation is dying out with fewer and fewer collectors coming into the fold." I have no reason to mistrust the sender here but I also think there's ample reason to question this verdict. I'd appreciate any feedback, including learning whether any of my fellow collectors have gotten letters to this effect. Thanks all. |
Hart Sastrowardoyo
Member Posts: 3445
From: Toms River, NJ
Registered: Aug 2000
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posted 05-13-2016 09:57 PM
I suspect everybody's going to be trying eBay first because it's easier and cheaper than an auction house — I can tell when someone has died or their effects have gone to auction because all of a sudden there's a lot of signed photos inscribed to that person.That said, I think the economy is still down and people are trying to sell what collectibles they have. That might be the lack of robustness. That, and while there may be a few hidden treasures out there, I think most of the "big items" to be found have already entered the auction market. In other words, people have already bought what they were looking to buy. |
Indy500
Member Posts: 24
From: Indianapolis, IN, USA
Registered: Jun 2015
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posted 05-13-2016 10:55 PM
If you read *anything* about Millennials, you will find that is probably true. Millennials value experiences over owning things. That's why the car companies are so worried. Same goes for any other possessions.My niece and nephew have decent jobs and can afford a lot of nice things. However, they have almost nothing because they would rather go and *experience* something rather than *own* something. The only exception is electronics. They always buy the best. Here's a Forbes article about the trend. |
neo1022
Member Posts: 281
From: Santa Monica, CA
Registered: Jun 2013
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posted 05-13-2016 11:04 PM
While I agree with some of what all of you are saying, I'm wondering how we might account for the seemingly ever-higher prices achieved at auctions -- right up through the last RR Auction? There doesn't seem to be any downturn at all, as far as I can tell. In fact, just the opposite. Even relatively common items are achieving prices well above what I consider to be "fair market" (meaning the price at which I could find a similar item, without too much difficulty). As a younger collector of very modest means, it's near impossible to get your foot in the door at these prices... So I for one would welcome a "flooded market" with falling demand and prices --it would be a great opportunity for new collectors like me to start building collections. But that hasn't happened yet. I suppose time will tell... |
spaceflori
Member Posts: 1499
From: Germany
Registered: May 2000
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posted 05-14-2016 03:20 AM
Reminds me: I'm getting such letters on a regular basis from dozens of stamp auction houses here in Europe for years and years always telling "now is the best time to sell, prices have never been better."  To me such quotes are either marketing or BS like all those "experts" tell "oh, the Dow Jones will be at 10000, 20000, 30000" by the end of the year. You can as well play cards, buy a crystal ball or... Ultimately if someone can predict the market, he would face infinite wealth and that — at least to my knowledge — hasn't happened so far. Bottom line as a dealer and collector, I see no reason for a change at this time, still I might be proven wrong in a year — positive and negative! Not sure if the Forbes article is valid for collectibles... you can't compare collectibles in general with daily used items such as cars, electronics and other things that have a "use" and are not of sentimental value (unless you collect cars which might have been a better investment in the past 10 years than anything else). |
Chuckster01
Member Posts: 873
From: Orlando, FL
Registered: Jan 2014
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posted 05-14-2016 06:05 AM
I believe there is one other variable to consider. If you are an auction house, there were many years of few and far between space auctions. Over time and with the explosion of internet auctions these have become weekly events. Although I do not see prices diminishing I do see auctions with fewer quality items as collectors have many options on how to sell there collectables including eBay and directly here on cS. A lot of auction houses are upping the seller and buyers fees to make there auctions more profitable and those fees may also enter into the equation. Most prices listed for auctions sales include this buyers premium. Regardless of the future trends of Millennials, I love watching every auction and grabbing up what I consider the deals. I also feel like there will always be the avid collectors in every generation. |
rgarner
Member Posts: 1193
From: Shepperton, United Kingdom
Registered: Mar 2012
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posted 05-14-2016 06:57 AM
All one has to do is look at the realized auction prices over the past 5 years to see where the trend is, and from my searches, the trend is up quite substantially. The space market is growing, there is no doubt about it, and value (at least for high end items) is going up year on year. |
Joel Katzowitz
Member Posts: 808
From: Marietta GA USA
Registered: Dec 1999
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posted 05-14-2016 07:14 AM
I think another factor that affects the collector market is the general state of interest in the area of interest. In other words, when "manned space exploration" gets cranked up again with missions to the Moon or Mars or even earth orbit the collector market will experience a resurgence. |
Steve Zarelli
Member Posts: 731
From: Upstate New York, USA
Registered: Mar 2001
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posted 05-14-2016 07:17 AM
In my opinion, there will be a robust market for blue chip material for the rest of our lifetimes.Common mass signed material from show signers will probably stagnate more and can even drop once it becomes apparent just how much some of this material exists. A notable example is the soft pricing in Armstrong. After he passed, the market was flooded and is still feeling the effects of that massive influx of material. Now, ISPs with decent signatures can be had routinely for under $1,000. In any case, my sense is the space hobby is relatively stable, we are seeing more younger collectors and over time the hobby will be just fine. The findings about the millenial generation are true, but they are still in their 20s and 30s. Once they get a little older, establish families and don't have the freedom to jet around the globe at their whim, that auction house catalog may seem a bit more appealing. |
Jim Behling
Member Posts: 1463
From: Cape Canaveral, FL
Registered: Mar 2010
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posted 05-14-2016 09:06 AM
quote:
Originally posted by Steve Zarelli
...that auction house catalog may seem a bit more appealing.
They have no connection to MGA and even shuttle. If they are interested in collecting space items, then flown SpaceX items would be more up their alley. |
rgarner
Member Posts: 1193
From: Shepperton, United Kingdom
Registered: Mar 2012
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posted 05-14-2016 10:46 AM
I doubt SpaceX will allow any significant artifact out of their sight. It is all good and well if you want one of their patches or t-shirts, but anything flown will likely only end up in their showrooms or museums. |
Chuckster01
Member Posts: 873
From: Orlando, FL
Registered: Jan 2014
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posted 05-14-2016 04:53 PM
As a museum that has been trying to get SpaceX artifacts for historic display on the Space Coast I can tell you they hold there item very closely. We have none so far. |
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