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Author
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Topic: future value of collectibles
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poofacio
Member Posts: 268
From: United Kingdom
Registered: Oct 2006
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posted 02-15-2007 06:23 PM
   
October of this year is the 50th anniversary of Sputnik 1, followed by 50th anniversaries of every milestone in space in rapid succession. What, if any , effect will this have on the value of space collectibles? |
mjanovec
Member Posts: 3811
From: Midwest, USA
Registered: Jul 2005
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posted 02-15-2007 06:37 PM
Very little, I would think. If the 20th, 30th, and 40th anniversaries didn't have a big impact on tghe hobby, I doubt the 50th will. I think that is simply because, unless someone is already a fan of the space program, those anniversaries won't mean that much to most people.I think a return to the moon might have a bigger impact, as people get interested in landing on the moon...which might spark interest in learning more about the first voyages to the moon. Granted, I don't expect it will be a huge impact to collecting, but may be more noticeable than an anniversary. Unless the 50th moon landing anniversary happens to fall at roughly the same time of the first return-to-the-moon landing...then the two events might feed off of each other. |
southpaw6267
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posted 02-15-2007 07:21 PM
I agree a renued interest in moon landings may have a big impact. i also believe when the ievitable happens and some of the bigger names go on their final launch interest will peak. I am working on the moonwalkers and Merc 7 for my kids so when they are older and watching the next moon landing with their kids thhey can look at the piecs and think of the space pioneers
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Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 02-15-2007 07:37 PM
quote:
Originally posted by mjanovec:
If the 20th, 30th, and 40th anniversaries didn't have a big impact on the hobby, I doubt the 50th will.
The attention paid to the 25th anniversary of Apollo 11 is generally credited with the resurgence of interest in the moon landings, including the later release of "Apollo 13" and its subsequent big-budget Hanks' helmed projects. With what little I know of the plans for the 50th anniversary of NASA, the public's awareness of space history programs should expand, even if only for a short time. Such efforts generally increase nostalgic desires and that does have an effect on the collectors' market. It's difficult to predict how strong an effect these campaigns will inspire, but if coupled, as Mark suggests, with a return to the Moon, we could very well be on the cusp of a space history-focused renaissance. |
SRB
Member Posts: 258
From:
Registered: Jan 2001
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posted 02-15-2007 09:16 PM
I think the 50th anniversay of Apollo 11 will be a big deal; with the day and event marked in many places around the world. Maybe the 40th anniversary will also trigger a lot more interest than any anniversay since the 25th. However, from a collecting viewpoint, we should not forget that the famous Christie's auction that sent prices into orbit was held in conjuction with the 30th anniversary. (Well, not quite, it was held two months later in September rather than July when no one is around to bid on anything.) So, in two years for the 40th, maybe good things will happen for our hobby.Steve [Edited by SRB (February 15, 2007).] |
413 is in
Member Posts: 628
From: Alexandria, VA USA
Registered: May 2006
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posted 02-15-2007 09:29 PM
quote:
Originally posted by SRB:
However, from a collecting viewpoint, we should not forget that the famous Christie's auction that sent prices into orbit was held in conjuction with the 30th anniversary. (Well, not quite, it was held two months later in September rather than July when no one is around to bid on anything.) So, in two years for the 40th, maybe good things will happen for our hobby.Steve [Edited by SRB (February 15, 2007).]
Higher prices can be a blessing  and a curse  . ------------------
b i l l |
oldpara
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posted 02-17-2007 11:51 AM
I'm doing what Southpaw is doing....collecting for my grandchildren. It would be nice if anniversaries would spark an interest in the space field in general so that the youngsters might break away from the i-pods and computer games long enough to get educated. It will truly be sad if all that happens is the prices for autographs goes up.But again, I speak from a different point of view than collecting for a financial gain. |
poofacio
Member Posts: 268
From: United Kingdom
Registered: Oct 2006
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posted 02-17-2007 02:26 PM
quote:
Originally posted by oldpara:
But again, I speak from a different point of view than collecting for a financial gain.
I don't collect for gain, ( having famously never sold anything!) but it is comforting to think that money spent isn't totally lost!
IMO rising prices will encourage people who see it as an investment, most of whom either already have or will get the space bug.The main cause of the rise of price in things with a finite supply is excess demand. I believe that this demand is chiefly from enthusiasts rather than the odd dis-interested investor.
I second the iPod sentiment! |
oldpara
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posted 02-17-2007 06:21 PM
I think I came on a little bit strong in my last post. I have nothing at all against those collectors who are in the hobby for financial gain. I financed part of my daughter's college with the financial profits I made with baseball cards.Now that I'm collecting for personal reasons rather than financial, I selfishly hope that the prices don't go up....... |
poofacio
Member Posts: 268
From: United Kingdom
Registered: Oct 2006
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posted 02-17-2007 07:16 PM
quote:
Originally posted by oldpara:
Now that I'm collecting for personal reasons rather than financial, I selfishly hope that the prices don't go up.......
Untill the collections complete?!!!!!!!! |
davidcwagner
Member Posts: 799
From: Albuquerque, New Mexico
Registered: Jan 2003
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posted 02-17-2007 10:29 PM
The collection is never complete. |
nelyubov
Member Posts: 131
From: USA
Registered: Sep 2003
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posted 02-17-2007 11:01 PM
I have never felt that prices were a problem whether they be high or low -- the REAL problem for our collections is INTEREST. I have seen too many hobbies and autograph collections become worthless, both monetarily and historically as time went on. Interest in the space program with young people is dwindling. They do not know who Gus Grissom or Ed White were and really don't care. Space is BORING to many of them -- why watch a few astronauts make a few repairs in space when they can watch Star Wars, Star Trek and even play space games on their Xbox's. This is the real worry we should all have - what will become of my collection when I am dead and gone. I remember several collectors long ago saying how they couldn't believe that no one was interested in their " Autographs of Generals of WWI" collections.If their is no demand or interest then there is no hobby with or without the $$$$$.Mark |
driftingtotheright
unregistered
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posted 02-18-2007 09:44 AM
Decline in interest certainly occurs, but more likely it will wax and wane, but never near zero. NASA is still viable, and exploration is in the American spirit. Entities such as the Air & Space Museum, KSC, Johnson Space Center, and Kansas Cosmosphere, to mention a few, help keep the PR alive. Heck, Buzz on the Moon is still part of MTV's logo (I hope ).
Jerry |
freshspot
unregistered
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posted 02-18-2007 10:14 AM
Apollo 13 was huge in generating interest. I had heard at one point that there was some Hollywood interest in making a film version of "First Man". That would goose interest again I would think. Anyone know anything more about this possibility?Dave Scott the collector http://www.apolloartifacts.com/ |
fabfivefreddy
Member Posts: 1067
From: Leawood, Kansas USA
Registered: Oct 2003
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posted 02-18-2007 12:47 PM
I do not believe that anniversaries have a great imapct on values.
However, movies and documentaries occassionally cause temporary price fluctuations. The rare and desirable items to collectors will always steadily increase in value. Tahir |
oldpara
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posted 02-18-2007 06:44 PM
quote:
The collection is never complete
Well said David. The more you have to show to members of the younger generation, the more they can learn. quote:
have never felt that prices were a problem whether they be high or low -- the REAL problem for our collections is INTEREST. I have seen too many hobbies and autograph collections become worthless, both monetarily and historically as time went on. Interest in the space program with young people is dwindling. They do not know who Gus Grissom or Ed White were and really don't care. Space is BORING to many of them -- why watch a few astronauts make a few repairs in space when they can watch Star Wars, Star Trek and even play space games on their Xbox's
Exactly what I am trying to prevent Mark. Thank you |
LCDR Scott Schneeweis
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posted 02-18-2007 07:34 PM
I say this with an obvious bias as a Space Artifacts (vice Memorabilia) collector - A distinction is in order as many outside the hobby tend to interchangably use memorabilia to describe all facets of items we collect. Space artifacts as more enduring and tangible evidence of significant historical events are likely to enjoy a trend of substantial appreciation; the value of space memorabilia over the longer term I think is much more volatile as it is inextricably linked to the psycological component of collecting (i.e. how people feel or want to feel interconnected with an event, how does collecting event symbolism add value or enjoyment to ones life, particularly within the context of current culture and social values of the time). ------------------
Scott Schneeweis
URL http://www.SPACEAHOLIC.com/
[Edited by LCDR Scott Schneeweis (February 18, 2007).] |
David Bryant
Member Posts: 986
From: Norfolk UK
Registered: Feb 2005
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posted 02-19-2007 10:21 AM
Well I must confess to having some financial interest in a maintained value for Space memorabilia: I sell the stuff! And meteorites too!
But I spend most of my time lecturing to schools / colleges / astronomy groups (For expenses!) Anyone who'll have me!
I don't see that Man has a long-term future on Earth: we MUST instil in each new generation the same fire and outward-looking zeal that we old-timers have had since 1957.
As Oscar Wilde once remarked:
"We are all lying in the gutter, but some of us are looking upwards at the stars!" |
zee_aladdin
Member Posts: 781
From: California
Registered: Oct 2004
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posted 02-19-2007 10:56 AM
Hello David,you said that you don't see Man's future here on Earth !!!! I really have to disagree with you, because our earth is very beautiful and have tremendous resources for the future. We continue to reinvent technology so that we can sustain life on earth for thousands of years to come. Plus, an ideas of colonizing either mars or the moon at this moment in time might bring disaster. There is a big difference between good imagination (which I agree we all should have and develop), and fantasy thinking (as many people become too far fetched in their thoughts), and I think your words borders more on the fantasy and less on good imagination. - Zee |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 02-19-2007 12:17 PM
quote:
Originally posted by zee_aladdin:
There is a big difference between good imagination (which I agree we all should have and develop), and fantasy thinking (as many people become too far fetched in their thoughts), and I think your words borders more on the fantasy and less on good imagination.
For what its worth, the preeminent thinkers of our time seem to agree more with David than they do Zee. From Arthur C. Clarke to Stephen Hawking (to name just two), the consensus seems to be that humans are destined to go extinct unless we become a multi-planet species, sooner than later, and that eventually, our resources on Earth will expire. Of course, if considered on a long enough timeline, this planet will cease to exist when the Sun dies (yellow dwarfs live about 10 billion years and our Sun is already about 5 billion years old). By then, any space collectibles remaining will take on a whole new value — as remnants of mankind's original home planet.  |
413 is in
Member Posts: 628
From: Alexandria, VA USA
Registered: May 2006
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posted 02-19-2007 12:35 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
Of course, if considered on a long enough timeline, this planet will cease to exist when the Sun dies (yellow dwarfs live about 10 billion years and our Sun is already about 5 billion years old).By then, any space collectibles remaining will take on a whole new value — as remnants of mankind's original home planet.
My word. You paint a very rosy picture indeed, Robert. I'm talking about the value that our collections will command in 5 billion years. We'll have to take extra care to adjust for inflation so as to not let things get to our heads and become overly boastful! On second thought I'm a bit worried that the premium paid for flown items may be severely limited in 5 billion years owing to the fact that *all* items remaining from planet Earth will have been flown in some form or fashion. ------------------
b i l l |
LCDR Scott Schneeweis
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posted 02-19-2007 12:58 PM
Of course one presumes in 5 billion years we will have the technological capability to adjust the earths orbit to stay outside the catastrophic influence of the suns expansion and extend habitability (or even preserve our ancestrial planet as a protected historical heritage site for visitation) |
Matt T
Member Posts: 1368
From: Chester, Cheshire, UK
Registered: May 2001
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posted 02-19-2007 03:09 PM
I think most of these predictions are a little optimistic for a species with only a two million year history (0.2% of a single billion years)...When I think about the future of humanity over the coming aeons I find it hard to believe that we won't simply die out in time, either here or possibly elsewhere in the Milky Way - just one galaxy amongst millions upon millions upon millions. The fact is, one day there will be a last human. Don't know why but personally I find that a profoundly peaceful thought. Cheers,
Matt P.S. Getting back on topic - I would anticipate a peak in value around the 2019 50th anniversary of Apollo 11. We'll be on our way back to the moon, there will still be a number of people who remember the first landing from their youth, there'll be inevitable media interest. ------------------
www.spaceracemuseum.com |
spaced out
Member Posts: 3110
From: Paris, France
Registered: Aug 2003
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posted 02-19-2007 04:17 PM
quote:
Originally posted by LCDR Scott Schneeweis:
... Space artifacts as more enduring and tangible evidence of significant historical events are likely to enjoy a trend of substantial appreciation; the value of space memorabilia over the longer term I think is much more volatile ...
Although I understand your argument I'm not convinced your conclusion is true. I think in the end it is only the symbolic value of an item that is important whether it was a part of the equipment used on a mission or a piece of memorabilia carried on the mission.Obviously a piece of hardware has an intrinsic importance that makes it more valuable to you personally but to many others the aesthetic and symbolic appeal of a piece of memorabilia may make it more valuable. I'm not convinced that the two types of item will change in value dramatically relative to each other as time passes. |
SRB
Member Posts: 258
From:
Registered: Jan 2001
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posted 02-19-2007 05:53 PM
I like Scott's distinction between memorabilia and artifacts, but that's because I am more attracted to artifacts than some other items. But I don't know what part the historical significance of space exploration will play in the future value of what we collect. I know it is important to me, but many others put much higher values on the historic significance of Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe. And for them it is right to do so.When I buy something I assume the immediate resale value is only 50% to 70 % of what I pay for it; the discount being auction fees and the lower value to the next highest bidder or dealer profit margins. To me, that is the cost of being able to own, for a period of time, something that thrills me to own. Will I get my money back or make a profit in the future? No one really knows. I certainly hope so, but even if it never goes up in monetary value it enriches my life. Steve |
LCDR Scott Schneeweis
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posted 02-19-2007 06:06 PM
Symbolism is certainly germane to both artifacts and memorabilia however my argument really centers around artifacts being more universally valuable because they are the "first generation" conveyors of rich technical and substantive information pertaining to a given event.
[Edited by LCDR Scott Schneeweis (February 19, 2007).] |
zee_aladdin
Member Posts: 781
From: California
Registered: Oct 2004
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posted 02-20-2007 11:43 PM
Well, I think the earth will still be Here when we all pass away ... but I am not sure about the Next Generation. Knowing that, I can sleep in Peace ... at least for Now!- Zee www.citizensofplanetearth.com |
leslie
Member Posts: 231
From: Surrey, England
Registered: Aug 2005
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posted 02-21-2007 06:15 AM
I hold my hands up and state that I hope prices soar! There are costs to holding a collection as dividends or interest is not received on the vast amount we have spent.My emotional gain however, exceeds the financial gain at this point in time but I would like to think at some time in the future I will at least get my money back. A determining factor may be that the number of collectors may grow but, like all collectibles, rarity and condition ultimately determines the value.
------------------
Leslie |
Philip
Member Posts: 5952
From: Brussels, Belgium
Registered: Jan 2001
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posted 02-27-2007 03:57 PM
Well, at the 100th anniversary our stuff officially turns into antiques |
UKRuss2
Member Posts: 34
From: UK
Registered: Jul 2002
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posted 02-28-2007 09:23 AM
Dear All,I've spent a lot of money over the years collecting Mercury,Gemini and Apollo autographs. (I am really skint at the moment and this weekend is going on the credit card!) The fiscal value of my collection is of import to me only for insurance purposes, as the pleasure and joy I get from looking at these signatures on the wall really is priceless. They link me to memories of meetings with the Astronauts and also a link to a dream I would have liked to have been a part of. This inspiration and sense of adventure helps to drive a more mundane life. The autographs of gents such a Sy and Gene Kranz remind me of the power of hard work, dedication and self belief - that I try to enthuse into my own career, and into my students' lives. ... and that is why I collect. Best wishes to all and have a great time at Autographica if you can. Russell. p.s. I hope my collection ends up with my grandchildren as keepsakes and not on 'Flog It' as soon as I am gone! [Edited by UKRuss2 (February 28, 2007).] |
James Brown
Member Posts: 1287
From: Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Registered: Jun 2000
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posted 02-28-2007 09:36 AM
We all live on a planet that, at this very moment, is traveling through space. Doesn't that make everything that we own space flown? James |
polheiney
Member Posts: 93
From: Hagerstown, MD, US
Registered: Oct 2006
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posted 02-28-2007 09:52 AM
If that's true then I have several space flown items I'd like to sell ranging from a toothbrush I was about to through away to a space flown hula-hoop. I've got plenty of stuff, so let me know!Pol |
southpaw6267
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posted 02-28-2007 09:56 AM
I would think we all have to consider value of what we own. I know with my fledgling space collection and expansive baseball collection it will one day be handed down to my kids and they may not want it. I will stipulate certain pieces be handed down through the family. I would like to think if my hiers eventually want to sell it off it holds some value and they make some nice money off of it. The value has no meaning to me as I never plan to sell but we can't take it with us. (I am going to try :-) ) |
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