posted 10-10-2003 11:52 AM               

Pieces bought or had signed years ago by Armstrong maybe good for the person who had them signed. Unfortunately, now after the emergence of Ebay and the proliforation of fake Armstrongs, is the market due for a correction due to the unsure nature of any Armstrong?

As a suggestion, forget about the seeking out a reputable dealer argument, look at the discussion based upon this and other egroup threads that point out fake Armstrongs. We have many people who issue comments about fakes everyday on those threads regardless of the dealer.

Look at how to find an authentic Armstrong or for that matter an authentic autograph in general. Is the autograph hobby dying under the weight of forgeries?

posted 10-10-2003 12:45 PM               

I have in my collection a Mike Collins autograph that I purchased just over two years ago from the final Superior auction. At the time the piece was specifically cleared as good by one of the most knowledgeable collectors in the community. Additionally no one flagged it in the lists of dubious autographs that usually circulate before each Superior/Aurora auction.

Reassured I bid for and won the autograph. End of story...until recently.

Previously private discussions between the more knowledgeable autograph collectors in our hobby became public in a post about an Apollo 11 crew signed item on eBay a few months back. As far as Collins was concerned it was offered as a useful maxim that any crew signed items featuring a Collins signature with an 'Apollo XI' inscription was probably suspect. By extension a lot of doubt is cast on all Collins signatures with the 'Apollo XI' addition.

Like my piece.

So I learnt the following - today's unquestionable Armstrong signature variant is next year's Peachstate forgery. I'm only $500 down from learning this lesson and I genuinely count it as money well spent.

What this means for the autograph market is that the days of iron clad investment pieces are slipping away. The regularly voiced concerns about the flood of Russian items highlights this. The internet makes things too easy for forgers, as authentic scans are easily available as exemplars from which to copy; well meaning discussions about the characteristics of fakes can be used by forgers to avoid making those same mistakes.
The economics are also against us; if I was earning peanuts in a poor corner of the former Soviet Union you can bet I'd be spending my free evenings learning to sign like Yuri Gagarin, and maybe Neil Armstrong or Gus Grissom on the weekends.

So there are two realities for the autograph collector.

1. If I want to buy autographs for myself with no concern for their resale value then I should trust my own judgment and gut instincts first and foremost. If I don't have sufficient knowledge to spot good from bad I should either acquire it or stop buying autographs.

2. If I want to buy autographs with an eye to their future value I should canvass opinion far and wide as to what is generally agreed by collectors (my future market) as to what constitutes a really, REALLY safe signature. And I should expect that body of opinion to change over time, become more and more exacting (as the fakes get better) and ultimately exclude some items that were previously approved.

Cheers,
Matt

posted 10-10-2003 01:28 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by JasonB:
I've also felt that if Armstrong is so concerned about people selling fakes or reselling his signature for a profit, this would eliminate profit making altogether, as it would set a clear market value and increase availibility.

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posted 10-10-2003 02:25 PM               

Yes, of course the many forgeries cannot have had anything but a deleterious effect on the collecting market, and there will always be a mix of factors contributing to the up and downs of valuations, but the significance of Armstrong's place in history guarantees a constant demand for his autograph.
That said, there will always be a way to obtain certifiably real autographs, and those will be the ones to retain/increase in value - - letters, checks, portraits or other items with solid documentation, authorized prints and the like.

Being wary is a good idea when buying anything, and Ebay has just made things trickier, but there's also been the trade off of increased availability, and hence, greater interest.

posted 10-10-2003 04:16 PM               

With the Peachstate Armstrongs & Apollo 11s it was easy, as they all had a single source that each one led back to. There was no question where they came from.

But forgers have gotten smarter, as they don't advertize their autographs & use various means, such as eBay, auctions & unsuspecting dealers & sellers, to distribute their creations.

It would be easy to trace back most suspicious autographs, from owner to owner to owner, if everyone would cooperate. But too many egos & reputations are at stake to have that happen, it appears.

posted 10-10-2003 04:45 PM               

It seems to me that for the vast majority of Armstrong autograph seekers - saving those of talent who have been mentioned in the various threads - this is the only safe way to acquire an Armstrong. And for that reason I suspect that these items have the potential to increase quite a bit in value, which will eventually push it out of my price range.

Any thoughts?

posted 10-10-2003 06:51 PM               

All you have to do is ask here (please copy and paste the URL of the item in your post) and lots of us will be happy to give our personal opinions on any item you are wondering about. We may not all agree with each other, but our opinions will hopefully help you form yours.

posted 10-10-2003 08:15 PM               

The point is, if you become familiar enough with Armstrong signature characteristics, you can obtain one, that ALL collectors would agree as being real, for a relatively reasonable price. True, it takes time to be familiar enough to feel you won't likely ever get screwed, but it's the same with just about everything else in life, isn't it? (How many times do non-mechanics get ripped off along the way by shady car repair establishments?) It just takes time to learn to separate the wheat from the chaff. I've gotten screwed, and have been lucky to get my money back in most cases; they've all been learning experiences though.

-chet