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  Russia may attempt to deflect asteroid Apophis

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Author Topic:   Russia may attempt to deflect asteroid Apophis
Robert Pearlman
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Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 12-30-2009 12:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
SPACE.com: Report: Russia May Try to Deflect Asteroid With Spacecraft
Anatoly Perminov, chief of Russia's Federal Space Agency, said Wednesday that his agency will hold a special meeting to discuss a potential mission to the asteroid Apophis, according to the Associated Press. Perminov spoke on Golos Rossii radio and said NASA and other foreign space agencies would be invited to participate in the mission once the details are finalized, the AP reported.

"Calculations show that it's possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision without destroying it [the asteroid] and without detonating any nuclear charges," the AP quoted Perminov as saying. "The threat of collision can be averted."

Perminov did not elaborate how the Russian spacecraft would deflect Apophis from its near-Earth course, though he did say nuclear explosions would not be involved. Past studies have weighed using everything from nuclear weapons and solar sails to rocket engines, robotic swarms and old-fashioned paint to protect Earth from space rocks.

Apophis has only an extremely remote chance of slamming into Earth when it swings by on April 13, 2029. The asteroid will fly within 18,300 miles (29,450 km) of Earth -- a record close shave by a space rock -- on that day.

Current odds calculated by NASA give it a 1-in-250,000 chance of hitting Earth. Apophis' second near pass by Earth comes in 2068, when the space rock has a three-in-a-million chance (or about 1-in-333,000) of endangering the planet, NASA scientists have said...

SpaceAholic
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Posts: 4437
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 12-30-2009 01:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
What are the odds the Russians perturb the orbit so it increases the likelihood of an impact? Given the risks, better to first attempt on a non-Earth crosser, observe, validate the predictive models and refine the approach.

capoetc
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Posts: 2169
From: McKinney TX (USA)
Registered: Aug 2005

posted 12-31-2009 06:46 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for capoetc   Click Here to Email capoetc     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Back in May 2005, Rusty Schweikart told the US Congress that a mission to place a radio transponder on Apophis should be a high priority.

I believe Schweikart's point is that, while the probability of any one asteroid striking earth is low, the probability of AN asteroid striking earth is quite high — it has happened many times in the past, and the results could be devastating. He argues that it would be foolish to possess the technology to avert such a disaster and choose not to use it.

Robert Pearlman
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Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 12-31-2009 10:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Astronaut Tom Jones shares his opinion of the mission, and in doing so, cites Schweickart...
Yet Apophis is a poor choice for a deflection demonstration. Recent refinements in estimating its orbit show that Apophis has just a 4-in-1 million chance of striking Earth in 2036. Those are non-existent odds, essentially. But a nudge in the wrong direction, from a failed deflection demo, could send Apophis in 2029 through a gravitational "keyhole" near Earth, with our planet's gravity diverting the asteroid onto a collision course with impact seven years later.

Instead, Russia should follow through on its positive impulse and coordinate a demonstration mission to another NEO, one that has zero chance of encountering the Earth. Rusty Schweickart, chairman of the B612 Foundation and a member of the ASE NEO committee, said Wednesday that "there are a million asteroids out there...find another one."

Philip
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From: Brussels, Belgium
Registered: Jan 2001

posted 01-01-2010 04:53 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Philip   Click Here to Email Philip     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Well, Near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis was only discovered in 2004. That's amazing as it's about 300 meters large. Let's hope that the WISE spacecraft will detect more dangerous asteroids during its mission life time.

SpaceAholic
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Posts: 4437
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 02-19-2016 06:01 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Russian scientists have developed a project of upgrading intercontinental ballistic missiles to destroy near-Earth meteorites 20-50 meters in size, leading researcher of the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau Sabit Saitgarayev told TASS.
The scientists would like to test the improved missiles’ capabilities against the asteroid Apophis expected to come dangerously close to the Earth in 2036, the scientist said.

"Most rockets work on boiling fuel. Their fueling begins 10 days before the launch and, therefore, they are unfit for destroying meteorites similar to the Chelyabinsk meteorite in diameter, which are detected several hours before coming close to the Earth. For this purpose, intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used, which requires their upgrade," the scientist said.

The improved missiles could be used as the killers of the Apophis asteroid, "which will come dangerously close to the Earth in 2036," he added.

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