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Author Topic:   Future direction of space memorabilia prices
SkyMan1958
Member

Posts: 867
From: CA.
Registered: Jan 2011

posted 09-07-2011 06:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I was just wondering what your thoughts are on the future pricing of space memorabilia? Obviously many of us collectors were born in the 1940's to 1960's and were heavily interested in the whole space race gig. We are now theoretically in our prime earning years, and theoretically have the disposable income to collect space race items. This has helped to boost the price of space memorabilia.

Do you believe that as this generation dies out (hopefully not for many years yet) that the prices of space memorabilia will:

  1. decline,
  2. flatten out,
  3. keep going up.
Personally I feel that as this generation dies off that the prices will flatten out for a period of time (say two to three decades) and then progress ever upwards as the historical importance of mankind in space comes more into focus.

So what do you think?

David Carey
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Posts: 782
From:
Registered: Mar 2009

posted 09-07-2011 06:39 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for David Carey   Click Here to Email David Carey     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SkyMan1958:
So what do you think?

I think you must have overheard the discussion with my wife last night as we sipped our evening beverage on the patio and discussed a recent purchase.

Depending on the eventual direction of this thread I may or may not show it to her.

Spaceguy5
Member

Posts: 427
From: Pampa, TX, US
Registered: May 2011

posted 09-07-2011 07:21 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Spaceguy5   Click Here to Email Spaceguy5     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
On some items, prices seem a little random. Like, a few months ago shuttle tiles were selling for about $100-ish. Not even a month later, I had to pay $200. Not even a month later, they were suddenly around $500-$800. And now they seem to be decreasing again. It just depends what certain individuals will pay for it, and how many are actually interested.

Another example... On ebay, there's a seller who frequently sells large amounts of vintage NASA photographs and documents. He frequently sells repeats, but the prices always range from less than $5 to $50+ for the same item (though the $50+ usually come from a buyer with a purchase bot that always throws down possibly over a hundred on all items he's interested in... He must have an extremely disposable income to do the same thing every week).

In general though, in just the last few months, I've noticed a pretty big boost with people exploiting the end of the shuttle program. I imagine that fad will die down after a while though once the novelty of it to non-serious collectors goes away.

Blackarrow
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Posts: 3118
From: Belfast, United Kingdom
Registered: Feb 2002

posted 09-07-2011 08:01 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I keep telling my wife not to dump all my NASA books and reports if something untoward happens to me. I've shown her some recent prices on eBay, but it's hard to judge the state of the market. (I should point out that I buy the reports because I have a passion for the subject, not as an investment, but it would be foolish not to make contingency plans...)

I tend to agree with SkyMan1958 that many prices will flatten out (or even fall) until they become truly vintage historical relics in decades to come. Some items (mainly Apollo 11 items) will probably always hold their value, but I can't see much call for reports on Ranger or Surveyor in 20 years. Material on Gemini (other than perhaps Gemini 8 because of the Armstrong connection) is likely to be of limited value.

Even Apollo missions other than Apollo 11 are showing signs of reduced prices. In summer 2000, I dropped out of an eBay auction for the Apollo 12 Preliminary Science Report.It went for over $300. A copy in excellent condition has just sold on eBay for about $93. Some of the later Apollo Preliminary Science Reports (14-17) have recently sold for around $50-$75, well below the prices I paid a decade ago. Someone on eBay is currently trying to sell two such reports for around $500 each. I wish him luck! But in 50 years...?

There are amazing bargains to be had at present, but some Apollo 11 prices are clearly being inflated by a few bidders whose budget appears to be without limit. (I have often wondered what would happen if someone like Bill Gates got hooked on Apollo 11 eBay auctions.)

MrSpace86
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Posts: 1618
From: Gardner, KS, USA
Registered: Feb 2003

posted 09-07-2011 10:14 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for MrSpace86   Click Here to Email MrSpace86     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Well, Richard Garriott seems to have a nice collection in his castle or wherever he lives. He seems like an awesome guy to talk to and hang out with.

As for prices, I think that for the majority of Space stuff, the prices will wither stay flat or decline. The obvious missions and travelers will always be valuable and may even increase in value. But everything else (if logic remains) will flatten out. I mean, look at aviation memorabilia.

SpaceAholic
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Posts: 4437
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 09-07-2011 10:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If artifacts (not just memorabilia) are included in this discussion, the direction of prices will in part be influenced by the "quality" and program affiliation of the item. Flown M/G/A artifacts with unambiguous provenance and associated iconic, rare flight vehicle technology will continue to appreciate.

Jay Chladek
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Posts: 2272
From: Bellevue, NE, USA
Registered: Aug 2007

posted 09-07-2011 10:17 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jay Chladek   Click Here to Email Jay Chladek     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I would say trying to predict such trends is almost impossible. Like anything else, it goes through highs and lows. On one hand, the further away from manned programs like the shuttle means that there will probably be fewer "impulse" purchases where people try to get one last piece of the space program. But at the same time, I think there is likely going to be a growing international market as people who at one time may not have had access to such pieces even as recently as five years ago find the ability to collect such items as their "historical" value is appreciated more.

Of course, as I tell any collector of anything, don't collect it because you think it will be valuable. Collect it because you want to and because you like the item. Reason being is it is only going to be worth what you paid. It will only be worth more if you sell it for more and at that point, you won't have it anymore.

MrSpace86
Member

Posts: 1618
From: Gardner, KS, USA
Registered: Feb 2003

posted 09-07-2011 10:27 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for MrSpace86   Click Here to Email MrSpace86     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Jay Chladek:
Of course, as I tell any collector of anything, don't collect it because you think it will be valuable. Collect it because you want to and because you like the item. Reason being is it is only going to be worth what you paid. It will only be worth more if you sell it for more and at that point, you won't have it anymore.

Perfect. Well said. And as it has mentioned before, the prices are mostly driven by collectors anyways. I can't begin to count how many times when someone is selling something they mention in the sale "recently at X auction, a similar item sold for..."

arjuna
unregistered
posted 09-08-2011 12:07 AM           Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Jay makes some great points. There are several countervailing trends and so trying to predict the market is unwise. And there are better places to invest one's money, if that's what one's goal is.

But he makes a good point which is that we may have an Anglo-Saxon bias in how we look at this. Most of the people here (I include myself) are in an aging American space aficionado demographic, and it may be the case that as the rest of the world grows richer relative to America, some of those foreigners will be interested in the golden age of space exploration and keep prices stable - even as younger (or poorer) generations of Americans' interest wanes.

But who knows?

Tykeanaut
Member

Posts: 2212
From: Worcestershire, England, UK.
Registered: Apr 2008

posted 09-08-2011 03:33 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Tykeanaut   Click Here to Email Tykeanaut     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Unless there is a generation with as much interest in spaceflight as ours then I see the prices and interest sadly declining.

I hope I am proved wrong.

arjuna
unregistered
posted 09-08-2011 06:51 AM           Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
It's worth keeping in mind that because populations are increasing, even if fewer people relative to the general population are interested in topic X, their total overall numbers may still be stable or even increase.

There is no particular reason to think that most people in the future will have an intellectually impoverished relationship with history. The future is unwritten.

gliderpilotuk
Member

Posts: 3398
From: London, UK
Registered: Feb 2002

posted 09-08-2011 08:51 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for gliderpilotuk   Click Here to Email gliderpilotuk     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SpaceAholic:
Flown M/G/A artifacts with unambiguous provenance and associated iconic, rare flight vehicle technology will continue to appreciate.
I'd agree - for all types of memorabilia. Iconic and "milestone" mission items will appreciate - although not necessarily as exponentially as they have done over the past ten years.

Mercury 7 signatures, Apollo 1, 8, 11, 13 artefacts and crew-signed items, STS-1, STS-135 and the lost crews will always have a ready market.

Individual astronauts, much less so - most can already be bought more cheaply in the market than direct from signings. That's not to say that uniquely signed items or collectibles from the "less popular" missions won't see consistent demand. Just don't expect to see a $1,000 Mitchell, Young, Scott or Aldrin WSS in ten years time.

In my opinion future value will be determined by the iconicity or uniqeness of the article, with a switch (that I think we're already seeing) from committed space history collectors driving the market to more generalist collectors looking for an investible piece of history - albeit one that they probably don't understand the context of!

moorouge
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Posts: 2454
From: U.K.
Registered: Jul 2009

posted 09-08-2011 10:22 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I'd agree with most of what has been said already. However, nobody has yet put it bluntly.

Any item is only worth what someone else is prepared to pay for it regardless of its authenticity or importance.

SkyMan1958
Member

Posts: 867
From: CA.
Registered: Jan 2011

posted 09-08-2011 11:34 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SpaceAholic:
Flown M/G/A artifacts with unambiguous provenance and associated iconic, rare flight vehicle technology will continue to appreciate.
I guess each of us has our biases. I was mainly thinking about flown items. About 2/3 of the pieces in my collection are unflown. However, the majority of the dollar cost of my collection are MGA flown items.

music_space
Member

Posts: 1179
From: Canada
Registered: Jul 2001

posted 09-08-2011 07:48 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for music_space   Click Here to Email music_space     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Given my own, "horizontal" collecting trends, I feel that when I (or my heirs) dispose of my collection (I'm 51), a few of the items will at least repay for the many which will decline in value.

Dave Clow
Member

Posts: 236
From: South Pasadena, CA 91030
Registered: Nov 2003

posted 09-10-2011 01:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Dave Clow   Click Here to Email Dave Clow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
My two cents: even those collectors who do this solely for fun must sometime consider the financials. Like any other security, space collectables include penny stocks and blue chips, and it's possible to detect lasting, predictable patterns of depreciation and appreciation among them. We're the luckiest generation--we got to see the events, meet the participants, and build collections when we could, so we get the value of all three and, if we were savvy, the return on the last.

All times are CT (US)

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