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[i]At the time, managers thought there was only a 1-in-100,000 chance of losing a shuttle and its crew. Engineers thought the probability was closer to 1 in 100. But in reality, the odds of a disaster were much higher. On each of the shuttle's first nine missions, there was a 1 in 9 chance of a catastrophic accident, according to the new risk analysis. On the next 16 flights that led up to and included the January 1986 Challenger disaster, the odds were 1 in 10. ...NASA's Shuttle Program Safety and Mission Assurance Office at Johnson Space Center in Houston performed the assessment to gauge the progression of risk -- increases and decreases -- over three decades of fleet operations. Doing so could help next-generation rocket and spaceship operators better understand the real level of risk involved in flying astronauts on inherently dangerous missions. "The instructive piece of this is that over 30 years of operations, two accidents, countless engineering tests and all those things -- looking back at it, (now) we understand what the real risk was. But there was no way to know at the time," NASA shuttle program manager John Shannon said in an interview with Florida Today.[/i]
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