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[i]Analyses presented to the ASAP on several occasions, most recently in May 2011, stated that the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) related to ISS Loss of Mission (LOM) was 1 in 55 for a 180-day mission. Since there are approximately 20 180-day missions in the currently projected ISS Program, this means that there is a greater-than-30-percent chance that the ISS could sustain a LOM sometime during its projected operating life...[/i]
[i]It appears to the ASAP that the fiscal year (FY) 2012 funding level approved by Congress, which was less than half of what was requested by the Administration, will not allow commercial crew transportation to the ISS by 2016... In fact, if the new funding level continues into the future, it is the ASAP's belief that the program is in jeopardy, thus extending the current lack of a U.S. human spaceflight capability and resulting in no alternative to reliance on Russia to obtain access to the ISS.[/i]
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