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  GAO reports on Orion, Space Launch System

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Author Topic:   GAO reports on Orion, Space Launch System
SpaceAholic
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Posts: 5246
From: Sierra Vista, Arizona
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 08-02-2016 11:50 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Government reports cast doubt on future of NASA's Mars spacecraft, reports Verge.
For the past six years, NASA has been intensely focused on sending people to Mars — but the rocket and spacecraft that the agency is building for the job face delays and budget problems. That's according to two new independent reviews (1, 2) done by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a federal agency that conducts audits on behalf of Congress.

Released last week, the reports paint a grim picture for NASA's Orion crew capsule and the Space Launch System (SLS) — the huge new expendable rocket that would launch the crew capsule to space. The GAO has little confidence that both the Orion and the SLS will meet their scheduled milestones, and the capsule could exceed its intended budget, the GAO hints.

Robert Pearlman
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Posts: 50516
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 08-02-2016 12:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Ars Technica also reported on the Orion GAO report, but balanced it with a report on NASA's perspective, noting "development of [the SLS is] proceeding largely on schedule — so far."
"We've got reasonable margin in our schedules," [Bill Gerstenmaier, chief of human spaceflight for NASA] said. "It's foolish to think there won't be problems ahead of us, that's the nature of a development program. I guarantee there will be more stuff coming. But we're in the process of building a robust schedule that can deal with the challenges ahead of us."
SpaceNews also notes how NASA is looking at ways to balance the readiness schedules of Orion and SLS.
"We had planned on getting the service module from the Europeans in January," he said. "We will now get that service module more likely in April. We're preparing for it to even be a little bit later than that."

Gerstenmaier added that delay will cause NASA to adjust the timing of other elements of overall EM-1 preparations to keep the mission on schedule. One possibility he said NASA was considering was to conduct a "wet dress rehearsal" of the SLS, where the rocket is brought out to the pad and fueled, without Orion.

"The teams are looking at the challenges of, 'Okay, the Orion won't be there as early as we thought, so what other activities can we do in front of that, that still make sense?'" he said. "You're seeing a lot of real-time planning."

p51
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Posts: 1769
From: Olympia, WA
Registered: Sep 2011

posted 08-02-2016 12:27 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for p51   Click Here to Email p51     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Does anyone know how far past the budget the Apollo missions went? At first, lots of people doubted that would work, too...

Robert Pearlman
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Posts: 50516
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 08-02-2016 12:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If you consider Gemini a component of Apollo, then just as an example from Project Apollo: A Retrospective Analysis:
Problems with the Gemini program abounded from the start... All of these difficulties shot an estimated $350 million program to over $1 billion. The overruns were successfully justified by the space agency, however, as necessities to meet the Apollo landing commitment.
Between 1959 and 1973 NASA spent $23.6 billion on human spaceflight, exclusive of infrastructure and support, of which nearly $20 billion was for Apollo. To be fair though, that pretty matched what NASA estimated it would spend.
Initial NASA estimates of the costs of Project Apollo were about $20 billion through the end of the decade.

moorouge
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Posts: 2486
From: U.K.
Registered: Jul 2009

posted 08-05-2016 12:26 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by p51:
Does anyone know how far past the budget the Apollo missions went? At first, lots of people doubted that would work, too...

Back in 1975 I asked a friend with a maths degree to work out the costs. We came up with this -

How effective was PERT may be judged from the fact that over the nine years from inception to the first landing on the Moon budget increases amounted to 1·8% per annum over original estimates. Compare this with the 17% per annum increase in costs for Concorde, Europe’s high-tech equivalent.

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