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  The Planetary Society: "Humans Orbiting Mars"

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Author Topic:   The Planetary Society: "Humans Orbiting Mars"
Robert Pearlman
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Posts: 50516
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 04-02-2015 10:41 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Planetary Society release
The Planetary Society Announces "Humans Orbiting Mars" Workshop Results

Senior Space Community Professionals Address Strategy to Send Humans to Mars

The Planetary Society CEO Bill Nye (The Science Guy) and members of the Society's Board of Directors today announced results of the "Humans Orbiting Mars" workshop. The goal of the workshop was to gather expert science, engineering, and policy professionals to build consensus on the key elements of a long-term, cost constrained, executable program to send humans to Mars.

"Getting humans to Mars is far more complex than getting to Earth's Moon," said Nye. "But space exploration brings out the best in us. By reaching consensus on the right set of missions, we can send humans to Mars without breaking the bank."

"We believe we now have an example of a long term, cost constrained, executable humans to Mars program," said Professor Scott Hubbard, workshop chair and Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Stanford University. "This workshop was an important step in community-building among the many groups interested in Mars science and exploration."

"While the conditions for another Apollo-era Kennedy moment don't exist, we have a highly skilled scientific engineering and policy community that is eager to get going on sending humans to Mars," said Dr. John Logsdon, workshop co-chair and professor emeritus, Space Policy Institute, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. "We believe the consensus points achieved during this workshop can get us moving down the path to the Red Planet."

As a result of workshop discussions, 70 attendees reached consensus on the following points:

  • A credible plan for a long term Humans to Mars program that constrains costs by minimizing new developments was presented.

  • For a sustainable, executable, and successful Humans to Mars program, an orbital mission in 2033 is required.

  • An orbital mission will enable scientific exploration of Mars and its moons while developing essential experience in human travel from Earth to the Mars system.

  • An independent cost estimate showed that such a program would fit within a budget that grows with inflation after NASA ends its lead role in the International Space Station.

  • Landing humans on Mars can affordably and logically follow later in the 2030s.

  • There will be both scientific and public support for this orbit-first approach.

  • Pursuing this orbit-first approach will establish a framework for involving the private sector and international partners, and will create a unified Mars science and exploration community.
A full report on the "Humans Orbiting Mars" workshop will be released later in the year.

Headshot
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From: Vancouver, WA, USA
Registered: Feb 2012

posted 04-03-2015 12:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Did they indicate how long this manned mission might remain in orbit around Mars? Days, weeks, months, years?

Robert Pearlman
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From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 04-03-2015 01:10 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The plan, developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is for a 30 month mission: nine months to Mars, one year in orbit, and nine months back.
While that might sound like an endorsement of the JPL plan, a TPS spokesman later stressed in an email that TPS is just putting forth the JPL plan as an "existence proof" that it is possible to get humans orbiting Mars by 2033 without dramatic increases to NASA's human spaceflight budget, not endorsing the JPL or any other plan.

Blackarrow
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Posts: 3604
From: Belfast, United Kingdom
Registered: Feb 2002

posted 04-07-2015 11:30 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Mars really is the perfect destination for a U.S. President who doesn't want to do anything in space while giving the impression of activity and commitment. Even a Mars orbital mission is three (possibly four or five) administrations away. Most critics will be dead (this writer included) before being able to ask: "What about that Mars mission you were so keen on 20 years ago?"

In contrast, a commitment in the 2016 presidential campaign to restore America's leadership in space by returning astronauts to the Moon within one two-term administration and developing techniques for fuelling an outward odyssey to Mars would at least be achievable within a reasonable time-frame. It would at least require the newly-elected President to put her (or his) plan into action promptly. If not, we would know within a few years that it was all hot air. With Mars, the temperature of the air could not be measured accurately for many years.

Robert Pearlman
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Posts: 50516
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999

posted 04-07-2015 12:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Even if a presidential candidate was a diehard fan of space exploration, I don't see any scenario where they would pin their campaign to any NASA activity, outside of a general endorsement while visiting states with NASA ties.

Too many campaigns of recent years have been ridiculed for their support of NASA, from Newt Gingrich's moonbase to John Kerry's photo in a bunny suit while touring inside space shuttle Discovery.

Even after being elected, George W. Bush was roundly criticized (by both parties) for talking about Mars, so much so that it all but disappeared from his Vision for Space Exploration. And enough has been said about the reception to Barack Obama's (current and ongoing) plans.

I know we all want to see missions happen during our lifetime (let alone a single presidency) but that may not be the prudent approach for NASA. Apollo-level funding is not going to return and as such a multi-decade program is more likely to be the course regardless of the destination.

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Posts: 1221
From: Vancouver, WA, USA
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posted 04-07-2015 01:24 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Call me a pessimist but I'd be happy just to see American astronauts walking on the moon again in my lifetime. My realistic side keeps whispering, "Not gonna happen."

Robert Pearlman
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From: Houston, TX
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posted 09-29-2015 10:44 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Planetary Society release
The Planetary Society Releases "Humans Orbiting Mars" Workshop Report

The Planetary Society today released a report on its "Humans Orbiting Mars" workshop, which it held in the Spring of 2015. The workshop brought together representatives from NASA, the scientific community, industry, and government to explore a sustainable and affordable path forward for NASA's human exploration program.

"Amazing news: we could have humans orbiting Mars by 2033, and the astronauts are in school now." said Bill Nye, CEO at The Planetary Society. "Mars is the next logical destination in the search for life. Such a discovery on that other world would change this one. Let's go!" Nye added.

A focus of the workshop was a presentation of a proof-of-concept Mars exploration architecture developed by a study team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The study proposed a minimal architecture that would have astronauts orbit Mars and potentially visit the Martian moon Phobos in 2033, followed up by an ongoing series of Mars landings beginning in 2039. The JPL study was done as input to the overall NASA planning process and was presented for the first time at the Society's Spring workshop.

"Breaking the first human mission to Mars into two pieces, the first of which would orbit Mars and then land on Phobos, allows the costs and risks associated with landing on Mars to be spread out over two separate missions" said Professor Scott Hubbard, workshop chair and Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Stanford University. "This stepwise approach, when combined with the overall debunking of past cost estimates, and assessing scientific and public interest represents a powerful combination of reasons to move forward confidently. Driving this program with clarity, stakeholder convergence, potential international collaboration and commercial opportunities provides a basis for leadership."

The cost of the JPL study plan was independently analyzed by a team at the Aerospace Corporation, which also provided cost analysis in last year's National Academies report 'Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration.' Using the same methodology as the Pathways report, the Aerospace team concluded that the JPL study team's plan could get humans to Mars orbit by 2033 under a human spaceflight budget that grew only with inflation — over a decade sooner than the other plans considered by the National Academies.

The report addresses the cost issues, science return, and public engagement potential of an orbit-first approach to the human exploration of Mars. It is written for a wide audience and can be read by any individual with a passion for space.

"We have in place the sound science, skilled professionals and a passionate public needed to get humans to Mars," said Dr. John Logsdon, workshop co-chair and professor emeritus, Space Policy Institute, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. "With the right strategy in place — and the political will to achieve it — people can reach the Red Planet in a realistic time frame."

The Planetary Society is making the report available to the public by launching a multimedia website dedicated to Mars exploration advocacy. In addition to the report, the website offers explanatory video and informational material. For complete details about the Humans Orbiting Mars workshop report, visit that website.

"NASA must be realistic as it pursues the dream of humans on Mars," said Casey Dreier, director of advocacy at The Planetary Society. "This sort of pragmatic, affordable approach to Mars will be the cornerstone of The Planetary Society's advocacy for human spaceflight for years to come."

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