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Author
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Topic: Progress MS-04 (65P): questions, comments
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Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 12-01-2016 10:55 AM
   
This thread is intended for comments and questions about the Progress MS-04 mission to resupply the International Space Station. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 12-01-2016 10:58 AM
Anatoly Zak of RussianSpaceWeb.com reports that "a large explosion in the sky over the Tuva Region of Russia was observed, followed by reports of ground shaking and falling debris." It is still not clear the status of the Progress MS-04 spacecraft. If it has been lost, NASA reports: Consumables aboard the station are at good levels. An H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV)-6 from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is scheduled to launch to the space station on Friday, Dec. 9. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 12-01-2016 11:33 AM
From CBS's Bill Harwood on Twitter: Station commander Shane Kimbrough informed by NASA that third stage shutdown early; Progress team sent home; State Commission formed. Transcript of the call to Kimbrough: MCC: Unfortunately, I have some not so great news to pass along to you guys. We have some news about the Progress. Basically, what we saw was indications of the third stage sep occurring a few minutes early and we haven't had any communications with the Progress at all. So the Russians are, of course, looking into this and we will inform you when we get more status on them. Kimbrough: Okay, thanks Houston for the words. And yeah, please keep us updated whenever you hear something. MCC: We'll continue to keep updating. The Russians have sent the Progress team home at this point and they have formed a state commission. |
issman1
Member Posts: 1042
From: UK
Registered: Apr 2005
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posted 12-01-2016 12:35 PM
Is it likely that if this had been a Soyuz capsule it would have resulted in loss of crew? |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 12-01-2016 12:48 PM
During a nominal crewed Soyuz launch, the escape system tower is jettisoned two minutes and 40 seconds into flight. After that point, if I recall correctly, the Soyuz is moving fast enough and is at a high enough altitude to separate and parachute to a landing (or, depending on when it separates, enter a low orbit).The Progress anomaly occurred six and a half minutes into flight. |
328KF
Member Posts: 1234
From:
Registered: Apr 2008
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posted 12-01-2016 06:53 PM
Crew survivability would, of course, depend on a wide range of factors in a failure such as this. The closest analogy would be Soyuz 18a in 1975. In that case, the second stage fired after a failure of the first stage to separate. The escape tower had already been jettisoned, and by the time Soyuz was able to get away from the booster at an altitude of 90 miles, it was already pointed back toward Earth. A normal abort would have resulted in a ballistic trajectory putting 15 G on the crew, which is very survivable. In this case, the crew was subjected to over 21 G yet still survived. But "surviving" requires more than just getting past the initial problem. Soyuz 18a's chutes did work, but the spacecraft came down on a snowy mountainside and went for a wild ride downhill afterward. Then the crew had to stay alive for a day in the wilderness in freezing temperatures before being rescued. |
issman1
Member Posts: 1042
From: UK
Registered: Apr 2005
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posted 12-02-2016 05:15 AM
According to one account the third-stage separated prematurely. But since the engine was still running it slammed into the Progress MS-04. So if it had been a Soyuz MS launch the crew would have perished.I cannot recall a single Progress resupply craft being lost during the Mir programme. The Russians have now lost three ISS resupply missions in five years which begs the question what is the underlying cause: poor quality control by the manufacturer? Incompetent workforce at Baikonur? Inadequate Kremlin funding? Bad luck? Foreign sabotage? Bear in mind the reduction in Russian ISS crew size from 2017 till Nauka launches. What happens if/when they return to three full-time cosmonauts and the need to maintain them? In 2016, maintaining a low earth orbiting space station shouldn't be "hard" as the singular excuse for such mishaps seems to be. |
Robert Pearlman
Editor Posts: 42988
From: Houston, TX
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 12-02-2016 10:30 AM
quote:
Originally posted by issman1:
But since the engine was still running it slammed into the Progress MS-04.
According to Anatoly Zak, the speculation that the Progress separated from the third stage early was only after engine cutoff. The reports from NASA, quoting Russian sources, about the deployment of navigation antennas on the doomed cargo ship could indicate the separation of the spacecraft and the rocket stage after the engine cutoff. However due to lack of orbital velocity at the time of the accident, Progress had no chance of reaching orbit. According to the TASS news agency, quoting a spokesman of the Central Military District, the radar of the Russian Anti-Aircraft Defense Forces, PVO, tracked two objects at 17:56 and 17:57 Moscow Time, exactly when the Progress MS-04 mission was underway. |
SpaceAngel
Member Posts: 307
From: Maryland
Registered: May 2010
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posted 12-03-2016 05:51 PM
I cannot believe it, I thought all the bugs (i.e. the problems) have been fixed with the Russian Soyuz rockets... |
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