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Author Topic:   Human spaceflight: pace of progress
SkyMan1958
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Posts: 1019
From: CA.
Registered: Jan 2011

posted 04-12-2021 04:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SkyMan1958   Click Here to Email SkyMan1958     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Given that today is the 60th anniversary of Yuri Gagarin's flight, it is interesting to me to think that more time has passed between Gagarin's flight and now, than had passed between the Wright brothers at Kitty Hawk in 1903 and Vostok 1.

I'd say in human (space)flight the last 60 years haven't progressed as fast as piloted flight did in it's first 60 years. On the other hand, robotic (space)flight has grown by leaps and bounds the last 60 years.

Jonnyed
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From: Dumfries, VA, USA
Registered: Aug 2014

posted 04-12-2021 05:10 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jonnyed   Click Here to Email Jonnyed     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This is an interesting topic.

What are you measuring in your comparison of the 60 years? Tech development?

In the realm of space flight we went from Yuri Gagarin's first man in space to landing on the moon in 8 years! Then driving around on the moon in the rover. Then nuclear power pack RTG-driven planetary rovers. Then factor in numerous space shuttle missions, a telescope that looks back to the beginning of time, and an international space station in continuous operation.

How do you compare development of the jet engine to development of a continuously operated international space station? Which represents the "most rapid progress"?

oly
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From: Perth, Western Australia
Registered: Apr 2015

posted 04-14-2021 08:04 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Consideration should be given to the technology drivers that helped aviation develop.

War drove the development of the biplane through the first world war, with governments throwing resources at developing faster and more reliable designs.

The second world war drove technology development on a much greater scale, with aircraft types at the beginning of the conflict being left over biplane designs on the allied side and by the end of the conflict jet engines and pressurized airframes, and the introduction of radar.
The cold war again drove aviation development at a fast pace, and it could be argued that the space race was an annex of this same phase.

The fourth-generation fighter aircraft technology is a combination of streamlining cold war designs with the utilization of high-tech aerospace materials and technology that were developed during the cold war and space race. This leads to today's technology.

Commercial aviation rides on the back of these technology drivers. The development of transistors and integrated circuits was driven by the development of the Polaris missile, the Saturn V LVDC, and the Apollo GNC. Fly by wire systems stemmed from the AGC, and the shuttle was an enabler of many additional commercial aviation system advancements.

Along the way, there have been many aerospace companies that developed these technologies either fail or merge with other companies, which kills off some designs and pushes others.

How much of the Space Transportation System was funded or developed for national defense and military application? And would the system have come into existence without military support? The shuttle took 10 years to develop. Its successor has taken longer, using leftover shuttle systems, and does not have the same drivers behind its development.

If we count the space race as the main technology driver behind Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, and STS, and count them as part of the same technology advancement as the aviation industry at that time, it becomes clear why Human spaceflight has not achieved more.

MikeSpace
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posted 04-14-2021 08:12 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for MikeSpace   Click Here to Email MikeSpace     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
A lot of dominoes lined up in the 20th century, that chain from powered controlled flight to Lindbergh, Yeager, et al, Cold War, and the technology being born... that's a few of so, so many.

issman1
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From: UK
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posted 04-14-2021 11:15 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for issman1     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The fact that a Moon base has not been established by any nation (or entity) is depressing.

For me two key moments ended this hope, probably forever as far as I'm concerned: the civil rights movement which pressurised the U.S. government in the late 1960s and early 1970s, leading to the demise of Apollo.

And then the Challenger disaster, in 1986, just as plans were afoot to build Space Station Freedom. Although one could also list the termination of Constellation, in 2009, as being disastrous.

While the Artemis programme may exist I won't hold my breath for a surface lunar base in this decade. I just hope SpaceX remains solvent otherwise space travel, as we know it, could end.

Jim Behling
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From: Cape Canaveral, FL
Registered: Mar 2010

posted 04-14-2021 11:43 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Spaceflight advancement is not just measured by human missions.

There is no driving need for lunar base. Especially beyond an outpost.

No, it was not the civil rights movement. Apollo met its goal of beating the Soviets. There never was the intent to put a base on the moon or do exploration. Apollo ended also because the risks were too high.

Aside from the loss of life, the Challenger disaster actually did more good than bad. It showed that the shuttle was a flawed vehicle, not in how the accident happened but in that it would never support the flight rate, costs or all the missions, The accident allowed for the U.S. ELV programs to be reinvigorated and actually surpass what would have happened in the 90's/00's. Faster, Better, Cheaper would not have happened. Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) would not have happened. We have a cheaper reusable vehicle now. We will have multiple human spacecraft and launch vehicles by the end of the year.

Termination of Constellation was a good thing. It wasn't going anywhere either. Too expensive and no real need. Should have kept with systems of approach and used existing vehicles.

The Apollo program paradigm is no longer feasible nor needed for spaceflight. NASA is now taking more of a support role and user of commercial services (as the government should do) and letting industry and the marketplace lead on.

issman1
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From: UK
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posted 04-14-2021 12:30 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for issman1     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Apart from Elon Musk, who once said a moon base is long overdue, no leader of a space agency has articulated a good enough reason to send people beyond low Earth orbit.

Mining and colonisation are not on their list of priorities, so what's the rationalisation: human survival or microgravity science?

In that case let's gamble and put the likes of Musk, Jeff Bezos and Peter Beck in charge of taxpayer-funded space programmes instead of government appointed bureaucrats.

Jim Behling
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Posts: 1626
From: Cape Canaveral, FL
Registered: Mar 2010

posted 04-14-2021 01:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Mircrogravity science. It is the not the job of the US government to ensure human survival. It is to manage the country and find benefits that serve the country on earth. Intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations are who need to step up to ensure human survival.
quote:
Originally posted by issman1:
In that case let's gamble and put the likes of Musk, Jeff Bezos and Peter Beck in charge...
They can't do any better. They are subject to the same constraints. Taxpayer-funded space programs are to do what the government directs them to do. The NASA administrator can't follow his whims.

The likes of Musk, Jeff Bezos and Peter Beck are better off managing their own private programs.

quote:
Originally posted by SkyMan1958:
I'd say in human (space)flight the last 60 years haven't progressed as fast as piloted flight did in it's first 60 years. On the other hand, robotic (space)flight has grown by leaps and bounds the last 60 years.
Human flight over the last 60 years hasn't progressed as fast as piloted flight did in its first 60 years either. Still flying in subsonic airliners, only difference a little better fuel efficiency and digital avionics with satellite navigation. No different than automobiles.

AstronautBrian
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From: Louisiana
Registered: Jan 2006

posted 04-14-2021 01:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AstronautBrian   Click Here to Email AstronautBrian     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think it has been a much slower progression due to the fact that for decades, spaceflight was regulated to major governments only, whereas hundreds if not thousands of amateur flight enthusiasts were involved in the development and progression of early flight.

Human spaceflight seems to be in cycles. "We've done all we can with project A. It's back to the drawing board now with project B." What may look like a step backwards, however, could be a great step forward. With private enterprises now, finally, making their mark in human spaceflight, we may now see much more rapid progression on how far we can go.

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