Posts: 1051
From: Messina, Sicilia, Italia
Registered: Jun 2004

Posts: 836
From: Lafayette, CA
Registered: Oct 2001

Posts: 1051
From: Messina, Sicilia, Italia
Registered: Jun 2004

Posts: 1217
From: Huntsville, AL, USA
Registered: Jun 2003

posted 09-14-2004 11:12 AM               

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Hmmm... that's a really hard call. I really don't have any idea what call Nixon would have made under those circumstances. Earlier comments seem to be supposing support for space exploration but without a strong Kennedy-style vision.
I don't know that Nixon would have gone with the going to the Moon route, but it is possible--the idea was basically proposed to Kennedy as a space race we could win, and Nixon would be even less fond of the idea of being shown up by the Communists than Nixon.
Also, even if Shepard flew first, I don't know that would have been enough to invalidate the need for a space race--Gagarin's orbital flight would have restored Soviet space dominance after Shepard's suborbital one.
But, assuming Nixon didn't call for a lunar program, and without speculating on another major Apollo-style goal, what would have happened in the space-program-but-no-Apollo scenario?
I would imagine likely much earlier development of space exploration infrastructure. The U.S. would have had a more agressive early space station program, and possibly earlier development of a Shuttle-type vehicle (possibly more derivative of early space plane research).
The Leonov on the Moon in 1971 scenario seems unlikely without a U.S.-initiated lunar space race (and it also seems unlikely that if the Soviet Union had started a strong lunar program that the U.S. would have decided to just sit that one out).

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http://allthese worlds.hatbag.net
"America's challenge of today has forged man's destiny of tomorrow." - Commander Eugene Cernan, Apollo 17 Mission, 11 December 1972

Posts: 809
From: Cortlandt Manor, NY
Registered: May 2000

posted 09-14-2004 12:47 PM               

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Have to disagree with Rodina, there is no doubt that Shepard beats Gagarin, but for the chimp test flight. Chronologically, it certainly happens.

The combination of Sputnik and Gagarin and their impact on the U.S. mindset during the middle of the cold war certainly propelled the space race. If Shepard gets up first, it is unlikely the race to the Moon develops and the dominance of the Gemini program over the Soviet program, coupled with the Korolev death, ends any competition from the Soviet Union. The idea of Leonov setting the first step on the Moon in 1971 is not credible.

Financially, the absence of a deeply desired race to the Moon based on the national call of a martyred president, probably removes any commitment to the Moon. The 1960s showed that the Johnson administration could not fund the Viet Nam war, the Great Society and NASA. In this alternate history, NASA would not have received sufficient funding in the 1960s and into the 1970s (recalling wage & price controls and OPEC boycotts).

Absent a full-fledged space race, I wonder if we would have reached the Moon by now. I suspect the development of the MOL program would have provided the basis for a space station in Earth orbit and I suspect that effort would have received some added support and expansion. The problem with such an orbital platform is that it would have required an entire shift in NASA's focus to move from space stations to a lunar mission or the funding of two separate programs. As an alternative, I would envision the U.S. President (whoever it was) in 1998 or so calling for a new initiative in the new millennium to land on the Moon. I do not believe we would have accomplished it yet.

Posts: 260
From: UK
Registered: Jun 2004

Posts: 809
From: Cortlandt Manor, NY
Registered: May 2000

Posts: 260
From: UK
Registered: Jun 2004

Posts: 3165
From: San Diego
Registered: Feb 2002

posted 09-17-2004 06:21 PM            

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The Soviets did have the luxury of knowing the Mercury launch schedule in advance. The Soviet technology was ready and well-tested enough that it would have been perfectly possible for them to push forward Gagarin's flight and still launch him before a March Shepard attempt. I think it is fair to say that the Soviets would have done everything possible to beat the US for the first flight, and were technologically quite capable of doing so well before April of 1961.

FF

Posts: 260
From: UK
Registered: Jun 2004