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  NASA: Feasibility of flying crew on Orion EM-1

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Author Topic:   NASA: Feasibility of flying crew on Orion EM-1
Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-15-2017 09:41 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
collectSPACE
NASA looking at flying astronauts on first Space Launch System mission

NASA is looking at flying astronauts on the first launch of its next-generation heavy-lift rocket, a mission that could possibly send a crew to orbit the moon about the same time as the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11, the first lunar landing, in 2019, according to the agency's acting chief in a memo sent on Wednesday (Feb. 15).

Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1), as it is currently manifested, would see the first flight of NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) fly in late 2018 with an uncrewed Orion capsule on a journey to orbit the moon. The first crewed mission would then follow sometime in the 2021 to 2023 timeframe.

"It is imperative to the mission of this agency that we are successful in safely and effectively executing both the SLS and Orion programs," wrote Robert Lightfoot, NASA acting administrator, in an email to employees, sharing what he told the vehicles' suppliers at a conference on Wednesday. "Related to that, I have asked Bill Gerstenmaier [associate administrator for the human exploration and operations] to initiate a study to assess the feasibility of adding a crew to Exploration Mission-1, the first integrated flight of SLS and Orion."

Hart Sastrowardoyo
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posted 02-15-2017 08:26 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Hart Sastrowardoyo   Click Here to Email Hart Sastrowardoyo     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Isn't the EM-2 capsule under construction, or at least, work started on it? If so, should they proceed with putting a crew on the first flight could they simply switch capsules and abandon work on the EM-1 craft?

SpaceAholic
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posted 02-15-2017 08:37 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAholic   Click Here to Email SpaceAholic     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Second order effects on capabilities, integration and man rating are probably more significant then that. Different vehicle and launch system configuration - Block I vs IB launch system (EM1 vs EM2).

328KF
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posted 02-15-2017 09:38 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 328KF   Click Here to Email 328KF     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think this is a bold decision, and indicates that there is a recognition of the long timeframe between initial SLS launches being politically difficult.

I'd rather see a crewed launch slightly later than an uncrewed one sooner, followed by years of nothing. The comparisons to previous test flights is interesting. But much of this is proven hardware from the shuttle years, and given the current state of the art in computer design and analysis, the risks can be adequately managed, especially with a proper escape system.

Sadly, on other forums, this promising news is being billed as a thinly veiled attempt to protect the project from a non-existent contest between "Old Space" and "New Space" among advisors to the new administration.

I find it less than credible to assume that an interim NASA Administrator would be playing such a political game when the incoming boss is by no means a done deal.

issman1
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posted 02-16-2017 07:15 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for issman1     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Could an ESA astronaut be on the first crew?

Jim Behling
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posted 02-16-2017 08:22 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Jim Behling   Click Here to Email Jim Behling     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 328KF:
...this promising news is being billed as a thinly veiled attempt to protect the project
How is this "promising"? This is a flailing attempt to save the program.

The crew escape system isn't going to help the program if there is an issue and it is used.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-16-2017 08:30 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
At this point, it is nothing more than engineering study. Gerstenmaier could just as well come back and report it is not feasible, or that it is but doing so won't accelerate a crewed launch (i.e. the vehicle wouldn't be ready much before 2023).

Fra Mauro
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posted 02-17-2017 10:19 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Fra Mauro   Click Here to Email Fra Mauro     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There is nothing wrong with looking into it, as long as crew safety remains the priority.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-24-2017 08:21 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) wants NASA to provide a "compelling rationale" for putting astronauts on the first flight of the Space Launch System, reports SpaceNews.
"We strongly advise that NASA carefully and cautiously weigh the value proposition for flying crew on EM-1," [ASAP chairwoman Patricia Sanders] said. "NASA should provide a compelling rationale in terms of benefits gained for accepting additional risk, and fully and transparently acknowledge the tradeoffs being made before deviating from the approach for certifying the Orion/SLS vehicle for manned spaceflight."

"If the benefits warrant the assumption of additional risk," she added, "we expect NASA to clearly and openly articulate their decision-making process and rationale."

Jason Crusan, director of advanced exploration systems at NASA Headquarters, said that if EM-1 is crewed, the mission's flight profile would change.
Under the current approach, NASA would fly a relatively demanding mission on EM-1 lasting more than 20 days, "really pushing the limits of where Orion and SLS can actually perform," Crusan said. EM-2, with a crew, would be a more conservative mission to test the performance of the life support system. That approach, he said, would be reconsidered if a crew flies on EM-1.

"If you put crew on the first mission, you're not going to go to distant retrograde orbit and push the limits of the vehicle on the very first flight," he said. "So do you actually make less progress, or more progress? That's the trade we have to go through."

NASA will discuss the ongoing study to fly a crew on EM-1 during a media teleconference at 12 p.m. CST today (Feb. 24). The call, with Bill Gerstenmaier, associate administrator of NASA's Human Explorations and Operations, and William Hill, deputy associate administrator for Exploration Systems Development, will stream live on NASA's website.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-24-2017 12:45 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
During today's call with media, William Hill, deputy associate administrator for Exploration Systems Development, outlined the mission profile the ongoing feasibility study is considering:
We gave the team a crew number of two and we've asked them to take a look at what we had planned from a mission profile standpoint for EM-2 and that is a multi-translunar injection, free-return trajectory around the moon and back. Approximately an eight to nine day mission with about a day in high Earth orbit at the beginning to check out the life support systems.
Bill Gerstenmaier, associate administrator of NASA's Human Explorations and Operations, said the study is expected to report back in about a month. He added one more constraint to the considerations, with regards to when a crewed EM-1 mission could launch:
I put the arbitrary limit in that I wanted to look through 2019. I didn't want to go much beyond 2019, because I felt that if it went much beyond 2019, then we might as well fly EM-2 and do the plan we're on.

That also makes us decide fairly quickly that we want to go do this, to get into this time frame. Otherwise then, this could stay on and I don't like teams working parallel options. I want to get them down to one option and move forward.

cspg
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posted 02-25-2017 04:52 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for cspg   Click Here to Email cspg     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
So we have an untested rocket, untested software, untested combination of both, untested third stage, untested capsule, untested new spacesuits, with a mission around the moon (an Apollo 8 revival?) and probably more that I can't think of right now, and with all this, there are no alarm bells ringing? No red lights flashing? Really?

oly
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posted 02-25-2017 05:13 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
NASA have been instructed to come up with a compelling argument. Without an answer I think you may be jumping the gun regarding alarm bells just yet.

Blackarrow
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posted 02-25-2017 08:25 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Didn't someone once say: "We choose to go to the moon, and do the other things, not because they are easy but because they are hard..."?

Now who was that?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-25-2017 08:58 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
This isn't the Apollo program; Kennedy's words aren't applicable.

This is not uncharted territory. NASA does not have just 15 minutes of spaceflight experience. It has 50+ years.

quote:
Originally posted by cspg:
So we have an untested rocket, untested software, untested combination of both, untested third stage, untested capsule, untested new spacesuits...
Everything you list is or will be tested before flight, with the exception of the full up Space Launch System. And if NASA's confidence isn't high in the success of the rocket as a whole, then it shouldn't — and won't — be launching EM-1, crewed or uncrewed.

astro-nut
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posted 02-25-2017 10:59 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for astro-nut   Click Here to Email astro-nut     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Just a couple of questions concerning this? I was unable to watch the press briefing, so is NASA trying to fly EM-1 in 2018 or 2019? Also, when would EM-2 and EM-3 fly?

Also, when would our astronauts fly aboard? Is it EM-1 or EM-2 or EM-3?

ejectr
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posted 02-25-2017 11:23 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for ejectr   Click Here to Email ejectr     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If they do launch this mission... what pad would they use at Canaveral?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 02-25-2017 11:53 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
EM-1 is currently targeted to launch in late 2018, but may slip into 2019. NASA is presently studying whether it can put a crew on EM-1, but will only proceed if a launch is possible in 2019.

EM-2 is currently targeted for August 2021. NASA needs (at least) 33 months after EM-1 to prepare for EM-2, in part to make the modifications to the mobile launch platform to support the 40 foot taller version of the Space Launch System (due to the introduction of the exploration upper stage).

All SLS launches will use Kennedy Space Center's Pad 39B.

oly
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posted 02-25-2017 10:58 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
NASA has plans to fly manned missions on Orion and have been approaching that goal step by step with limited budget and resources since the cancellation Constellation. EM-1 has been planned to get Orion into space to conduct flight testing of systems without the additional cost of crew rating or crew provisioning. It has also been planned to use a launch vehicle that is not associated with future Orion flights as an interim step to get Orion up while the SLS is still under development. All of this is because funding dollars are not available to the program to complete SLS, Orion and the infrastructure in a time frame that was made available during the Apollo era.

There could be numerous reasons why NASA has been directed again to review the possibility of man rating EM-1. These could have a positive or a negative result on the program. Perhaps the funds will be made available to accelerate the program, perhaps a review could find that SLS/Orion is the wrong direction or perhaps it is a way to stall the current program for a few years.

All through the program the end focus has been to build a man rated spacecraft, life support module and rocket capable of deeper spaceflight. I personally do not see much benefit in designing and building interim designs unless there is an engineering issue that needs models or experiments to be built to overcome unknown problems such as the development of transonic or supersonic aircraft, aerodynamic or thermodynamic heating research and such. But SLS/Orion is based on tried and proven design and expanded or developed upon and while new manufacturing techniques and materials are being used many of the questions these methods raise are addressed during the development. The first flight of Orion was designed to answer many of these questions and should have provided many answers and not raised more questions.

Many of us can see problems for and against crewed flight on EM-1 and changing direction mid-program. While Orion/SLS is the only show in town building actual hardware and moving towards deep spaceflight, I hope this program keeps moving forward in a timeframe that sees reliable, regular flight, leading to tangible results and an active manned flight program, be it a return to the moon, a deep space station or Mars missions. I would love to see circumnavigation flights of as many planets and moons as possible within my lifetime if for no other reason than to get some great photos similar to the Apollo program photos shot by astronauts.

I just hope that the decision to begin this review as directed by the interim administrator leads to a positive outcome.

Blackarrow
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posted 02-26-2017 02:36 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Pearlman:
This isn't the Apollo program; Kennedy's words aren't applicable.
I was looking at this in a wider context than Apollo. It is easy to take the safe path, harder to take the difficult path. But to progress, we often (as a species) feel the need to take a calculated risk.

328KF
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posted 03-02-2017 05:16 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for 328KF   Click Here to Email 328KF     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Some good reporting on this from Miles O'Brien:

Robert Pearlman
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posted 03-02-2017 05:51 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
A good segment with Miles, though his mention of ESA's service module as the modern equivalent of the missing Apollo lunar module that drove the decision to send Apollo 8 to the moon isn't quite correct.

Orion EM-1 will fly with ESA's service module, whether the mission is crewed or not. It is being delivered later than originally planned, but NASA has worked that delay into its schedule.

SkyMan1958
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Heck, before we talk about crewing EM-1, it would be nice if the current administration appointed an administrator for NASA, oh, and maybe didn't cut the budget by 10% (the round number needed to be cut from all discretionary budgeted civilian agencies for the proposed budget numbers to add up).

Robert Pearlman
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NASA Acting Administrator Robert Lightfoot said today that he expects results from ongoing study to put crew on EM-1 "pretty soon."

Yesterday, during an interview with Jim Lovell, I asked what he thought about flying crew on the first launch of the Space Launch System.

You remember that Apollo 8 was the first crew to ride on a Saturn V. The first two unmanned Saturn Vs had problems. So I guess if everybody feels confident in the vehicle, go for it.

Blackarrow
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posted 03-08-2017 06:12 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Blackarrow     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
As I put it on 26th February, "...to progress, we often (as a species) feel the need to take a calculated risk."

Jim Lovell is a man who knows about taking calculated risks.

Paul78zephyr
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The first two unmanned Saturn Vs had problems.
What were the problems with the Saturn V on Apollo 4? (Yes Apollo 6 had problems.)

Robert Pearlman
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SpaceNews reports that the feasibility study to put a crew on EM-1 should be completed soon.
Gerstenmaier told the [NASA Advisory] committee March 28 that he hopes a final decision would be made by the time the administration releases its detailed fiscal year 2018 budget request in May. Putting a crew on EM-1, he said, "will require additional budget, and it will also require additional schedule."

Robert Pearlman
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Memo from Robert Lightfoot, acting director of NASA, to the space agency's workforce:
Decision on crewed EM-1 feasibility

I am writing to provide an update on the study regarding the feasibility of putting crew on the first integrated flight of the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft — Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1).

We appreciate the opportunity to evaluate the possibility of this crewed flight. The bi-partisan support of Congress and the president for our efforts to send astronauts deeper into the solar system than we have ever gone before is valued and does not go unnoticed.

NASA appreciates the energy, creativity, and depth of engineering and program analysis that was brought to the decision, but ultimately, the decision was made not to fly crew on the first flight after weighing the data and assessing all implications. However, the work we did on this evaluation will flow into our planning for the next two years. We look forward to using this information to strengthen our EM-2 posture.

We are grateful for the near-term flexibility offered by the FY 2017 Consolidated Appropriations Act, and we are confident that we remain technically capable of launching crew on EM-1. However, after evaluating cost, risk, and technical factors in a project of this magnitude, it is difficult to accommodate changes needed for a crewed EM-1 mission at this time.

NASA continues to lead the way in sending humans into deep space beyond the moon. The results of our evaluation, and the work we will add going forward, will make EM-1 and our total system better as we prepare for a long-term push to extend human presence deeper into our solar system. Our resolve remains strong.

We need to keep in mind that EM-1 is the first in a broad series of exploration missions that will eventually take humans to deep space. It is designed to be a flight test of our entire system — one that is challenging in itself and will offer the opportunity to better understand our capabilities and limitations. We’re building a flexible, reusable and sustainable capability and infrastructure that will last multiple decades and support missions of increasing complexity. We’re creating an incredible capability for this country – one from which future generations will continue to benefit — and we need to get it right now for the long term.

NASA is reviewing the production schedules across the enterprise, projected delivery of the European Service Module, first time production issues related to the Core Stage that is at the leading edge of new manufacturing, and the ongoing impact of the February tornado that directly affected the Michoud Assembly Facility in Louisiana. All of these factors are expected to result in a revised launch date for the EM-1 mission in 2019. NASA will execute its normal process to determine an official revised launch date for EM-1.

The development progress for both Orion and SLS is challenging but going well. Flight hardware for SLS and Orion is currently in production for both the first and second missions. Life support and related technologies are being tested aboard the International Space Station now, and deep space habitation and propulsion system development activities also are underway. Currently, the SLS engine section structural test hardware is being shipped via barge to the Marshall Space Flight Center for testing. The Orion abort attitude control system was tested in Maryland, and Orion’s heat shield is being fabricated and will be installed in a few months. All European systems for the Orion service module have been integrated into the Orion testing laboratory near Denver. Meanwhile, ground systems and software continue development at the Kennedy Space Center.

We are keeping each part of the enterprise – Orion, SLS, and ground systems – moving at their best possible speed toward the first integrated test mission. While components for EM-1 are being delivered, our contractors can turn to the next phase of their work, the first crewed flight test with SLS and Orion, known as Exploration Mission-2.

We are building both systems and supporting infrastructure to ensure a sustained cadence of missions beginning with EM-1 and continuing thereafter. We will continue to work with Congress as we move toward a crewed flight test on EM-2 and, right now, we are very focused on accomplishing the EM-1 flight test.

Thank you for continued impressive work. We are going to deliver an amazing system that will make this country proud for decades to come.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-12-2017 06:36 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
collectSPACE
NASA forgoes crew on first Space Launch System mission, slips flight to 2019

The first launch of NASA's new heavy-lift rocket will forgo an astronaut crew, space agency officials announced on Friday (May 12).

NASA nixed the idea of adding astronauts to its previously uncrewed Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1) after completing a study into what it would take to carry a crew on the maiden flight of the Space Launch System (SLS). Further, agency officials confirmed that the uncrewed EM-1 mission will slip from late 2018 to sometime in 2019.

davidcwagner
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posted 05-12-2017 07:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for davidcwagner   Click Here to Email davidcwagner     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
What are the odds of the first Orion flight coinciding with the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 05-12-2017 07:44 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
We'll know better in about two months when NASA sets a more accurate date for the EM-1 launch, but there has been some suggestion that the mission is already beyond July, into late 2019.

SpaceAngel
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posted 05-13-2017 05:52 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for SpaceAngel   Click Here to Email SpaceAngel     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
What a setback!

Headshot
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posted 05-13-2017 01:39 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Headshot   Click Here to Email Headshot     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thank goodness cooler, logical heads prevailed. NASA is smart, sticking to its guns and running an unmanned mission that would test Orion to limits that would have been unattainable with a crew on board.

Fra Mauro
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Emotionally, I'm disappointed but logically it makes sense, especially since the Astronaut Office was against it. I am starting to wonder about this whole SLS project--cost, low launch rate. You have to wonder if the plug will be pulled on this after one or two launches in favor of private enterprise.

Robert Pearlman
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posted 07-28-2017 11:43 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
NASA has released (to BuzzFeed) its EM-1 Crew Study Results summary.
The six week review was intense and involved detailed analysis by a large team of NASA and contractor personnel. While we may not be adding crew to this flight, the review was extremely beneficial as it allowed our teams to assess past program decisions and plans and to offer suggestions to improve development activities for EM-1. This effort was beneficial and has improved NASA's overall planning for SLS, Orion, and ground systems for EM-1 and beyond. The following describes the major factors and findings of the study.

oly
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posted 07-28-2017 08:00 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Reading the report NASA indicates that "The largest technical risk identified is the first use of a block heat shield configuration" Does this mean that the heat shield used on EFT-1 in 2014 did not past flight test and has been replaced?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 07-29-2017 11:47 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Quoting a September 2015 NASA article:
"The heat shield we put to the test during Orion's flight test last December met every expectation we had and gave us a tremendous amount of data on its thermal and mechanical performance," said Mark Kirasich, Acting Orion Program Manager. "But the process of building the heat shield as a single piece for that flight also gave us insight into how we could improve the way we build this essential element of the spacecraft."

...the [EFT-1] heat shield was composed of a titanium skeleton and carbon fiber skin that gave the crew module its circular shape on the bottom and provided structural support, on top of which a fiberglass-phenolic honeycomb structure was placed. The honeycomb structure had 320,000 tiny cells that were individually filled by hand with an ablative material called Avcoat designed to wear away as Orion returned to Earth through the atmosphere. During the labor-intensive process, each individual cell was filled by hand as part of a serial process, cured in a large oven, X-rayed and then robotically machined to meet precise thickness requirements.

However, during the manufacture of the heat shield for Orion's flight test, engineers determined that the strength of the Avcoat/honeycomb structure was below expectations. While analysis showed, and the flight proved, that the heat shield would work for the test, the EM-1 Orion will experience colder temperatures in space and hotter temperatures upon reentry, requiring a stronger heat shield.

Through lessons and data obtained from building and flying the heat shield, the team was able to make a design update for the Avcoat block design that will meet the EM-1 strength requirements. It is also expected to provide a cost savings and shorten the current heat shield manufacturing timeline by about two months.

oly
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posted 07-29-2017 09:07 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for oly   Click Here to Email oly     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thank you Robert.

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