posted 05-31-2012 09:25 PM               

Russia wants to set up a permanent international Moon base and to focus on the space station as a testbed for human exploration deeper into the Solar System. Japan and India also see value in more lunar exploration, and many of the world's space agencies want to work more closely with China.

None of those views tracks with existing or evolving U.S. space goals and objectives. As Congress and the White House continue their struggle in this election year over NASA's next steps in space, the U.S. agency's international partners are exercising more independence in their own space-exploration plans.

posted 08-15-2012 12:45 PM               

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Originally posted by LM1:
Is this something new or has President Obama mentioned this before?

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By the mid-2030s, I believe we can send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to Earth. And a landing on Mars will follow. And I expect to be around to see it.

posted 08-15-2012 02:43 PM               

In comparison, remember when the New Horizons spacecraft was launched in Jan. 2006? It is scheduled to arrive in the Pluto region in July 2015. We thought that that was a long time. Now, it is less than three years away from completion (2 years 11 months).

posted 08-16-2012 03:30 PM               

Obama's goals for space seem to continually change. We were going to the moon, now that's cancelled. Then we were going to an asteroid... who knows if or when that will ever happen? Now we're going to orbit Mars? Sometimes I wonder if the speechwriters even understand what they are saying before they throw it up on the teleprompter for him to read.

Here's a thought. Phobos is most widely thought to be a captured asteroid. If you're going to go all the way to Mars without landing (and I realize that there are good reasons to do so) why not just land there? Study the moon, test your systems, look at the Martian surface during the 24 hour trip around, plant a flag, and come home with rocks. A win-win.

I have argued before that a dedicated asteroid mission conducted by NASA is a one-time trip. You go, explore briefly, take samples and come home. I know some upstarts are looking at commercializing asteroid mining, so let them do it. If our ultimate goal is Mars, then every dollar, and every mission should advance our march toward a manned landing.

posted 08-16-2012 04:07 PM            

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Originally posted by SkyMan1958:
Given the financial realities of the Japanese budget, the EU budget and the Russian budget I find it hard to believe that the other countries would do much more than paper planning on manned lunar exploration...

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posted 08-16-2012 04:12 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
Obama's goals for space seem to continually change.

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1. Send a crewed mission out to an asteroid by 2025;
   
2. Send a crewed mission to Mars orbit by the mid-2030s; and
   
3. Send a crewed mission to land on Mars by the 2050s.

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Phobos is most widely thought to be a captured asteroid. If you're going to go all the way to Mars without landing (and I realize that there are good reasons to do so) why not just land there?

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But if like the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) mission proposed first, a lander is not necessary, then Phobos becomes a good target and one I don't think has been ruled out by NASA...

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Asteroids are a sidetrack from this goal.

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posted 08-16-2012 08:08 PM               

In November 2007, the Obama presidential campaign released a policy document delaying NASA's Constellation program by five years to fund education programs. There was concern that any delay would prolong the gap after the Space Shuttle's retirement, when the US would be dependent on the Russian government for access to the International Space Station. Other presidential candidates, including Hillary Clinton, did not support the delay.

In January 2008, the Obama campaign revised its position, supporting the immediate development of the Crew Exploration Vehicle and the Ares I rocket to narrow the gap. However, the new policy was silent on the heavy lift Ares V rocket and missions beyond low Earth orbit.

Obama gave the first major space policy speech of his campaign in Titusville, Florida in August 2008. He subsequently approved a seven-page space plan that committed to target dates for destinations beyond low Earth orbit: "He endorses the goal of sending human missions to the Moon by 2020, as a precursor in an orderly progression to missions to more distant destinations, including Mars."

Obama was noted for "having offered more specifics about his plans for NASA than any U.S. presidential candidate in history", but his record on keeping his campaign promises has been mixed.

The Obama administration instituted the Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee, also known as the Augustine Commission, to review the human spaceflight plans of the United States after the time NASA had planned to retire the Space Shuttle.

Their goal was to ensure the nation is on "a vigorous and sustainable path to achieving its boldest aspirations in space." The review was announced by the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) on May 7, 2009. The report was released on October 22, 2009.

The Committee judged the 9 year old Constellation program to be so behind schedule, underfunded and over budget that meeting any of its goals would not be possible. The President removed the program from the 2010 budget effectively canceling the program. One component of the program, the Orion crew capsule was added back to plans but as a rescue vehicle to complement the Russian Soyuz in returning Station crews to Earth in the event of an emergency.

In its final report, the Committee proposed three basic options for exploration beyond low Earth orbit, and appeared to favor the third option: Mars First, with a Mars landing, perhaps after a brief test of equipment and procedures on the Moon. Moon First, with lunar surface exploration focused on developing the capability to explore Mars. A Flexible Path to inner solar system locations, such as lunar orbit, Lagrange points, near-Earth objects and the moons of Mars, followed by exploration of the lunar surface and/or Martian surface.

In his April 15, 2010 space policy speech at Kennedy Space Center announcing the administration's plans for NASA, none of the 3 plans outlined in the Committees final report were completely selected. The President rejected immediate plans to return to the Moon on the premise that the current plan had become nonviable. He instead promised $6 billion in additional funding and called for development of a new heavy lift rocket program to be ready for construction by 2015 with manned missions to Mars orbit by the mid-2030s.

I'm not trying to be partisan here, just dealing with the facts of his track record. Believe me, I have no great hopes for the other party and what they might do to the program, given that their candidate has said essentially nothing remotely supportive regarding space.

posted 08-16-2012 08:56 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
I eagerly await hearing their empty promises too.

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A campaign does not and cannot set policy, so referencing anything before Obama — or any presidential candidate — says before he was in office is, at best, a distraction.

(Sadly, partisan politics has forced campaign promises into the realm of the impossible; no one can set consistent policy without knowing the conditions that will exist when the decision is actually being made, let alone the "full picture" details that are only available after the candidate enters office.)

What the Wikipedia summary omits is the now public internal White House memo that acknowledges that the President had to forgo his campaign pledge to sustain a robust space exploration program due to the state of the economy.

With that in mind, the only citation from Wikipedia that really matters is the last paragraph, which unfortunately is light on the details (it omits, for example, any mention of a crewed asteroid mission, which was in the same April 2010 address).

posted 08-17-2012 09:30 AM               

He also made that proposal seven years before ever landing anything on Mars, even though planning for a lander had begun in 1964.

Today, we know much more about the challenges of landing on Mars and perhaps more importantly, what we don't know. There are still significant biological and engineering problems, to say nothing of how to sustain funding not just in the ramp up to the mission but during the mission itself (look at how close we've come to shutting down the ISS while there have been astronauts aboard — but with a Mars mission, you can't simply have them turn around and come home).

posted 08-17-2012 10:23 AM               

Candidates work hard to endear themselves to the population, even going to great lengths to make a "personal connection" with certain voter pools in critical states by expressing a deep commitment to furthering their interests. This is what Obama did in Florida, but the actual results are far different.

We can spend all day debating who is most culpable for our current predicament, but I'd rather look forward.

To get back to the original topic, we need real leadership in establishing a viable near term exploration program. The article referenced indicates that other global space agencies are teaming up to spread the cost of lunar exploration, while we are apparently striking out on our own to asteroids and Mars (way out in 2050... several Presidents and many budget cycles away).

The result is fairly predictable — we will never get there. Already, the Romney "space policy" consists solely of "putting together a group of our best and brightest to plan a way forward." Well, we just did that, only our current President didn't really take their advice. We've done the same a few times in the past, yet those reports are collecting dust in some D.C. archive.

Other countries are now taking note of our lack of navigational skills, and are looking at other options. We are no longer the only major player in town. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels that our leadership's only potential motivation for moving away from earth might be the image of a Chinese lunar rocket stacked on the pad.

posted 08-17-2012 12:05 PM               

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Originally posted by 328KF:
...what it felt like to be a Soviet watching their competitors accomplish a goal they were unable to.

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