posted 05-07-2011 11:18 AM               

While the analysis has been performed by a company with a large dog in the hunt for commercial human-spaceflight business, it's conclusions are plausible, according to Jeff Foust, a senior analyst at Futron, an aerospace and technology consulting firm in Bethesda, Md. In 2002, Futron produced a detailed analysis of the potential market for space tourism to low-Earth orbit.

"The results are optimistic, but not unrealistic," he says, cautioning that most of the envisioned increase would likely take place toward the end of the decade. Not only is that when the new crop of privately financed rockets and capsules would be routinely available, but also Russia's Soyuz capsules – the mainstay of the past decade's trips for space tourists – are booked for space-station crew exchanges for the next several years now that the US space shuttle program is drawing to a close.

"You could come back and revisit this in a couple of years and say, 'Well, hardly anyone has flown, so where's that 140 number going to come from?'" he asks. "I think the answer is going to be: It really relies on a much greater supply of seats becoming available in the 2015-plus time frame."