posted 10-19-2011 03:34 PM               

Chinese space program includes landing humans on moon and establishing a base there... in the 2020s...

Believes that China will not just do a footprints and moon rocks mission... no point in simply repeating Apollo... opportunity to create a sea change in global power that comes along very rarely...

Why not take the all important next step: ownernship ownership ownership

Believe they will make ownership claims wherever they land and can move about — that process will continue until they can claim the entire moon...

posted 10-19-2011 03:56 PM               

Bigelow argues the balance of risk and reward is changing with low-cost private rockets and his own inflatable space stations, which could be modified for surface use.

He's convinced there's an even better reason there will be demand for cheap, easily installed lunar bases. It's an idea he's never talked about publicly but is convinced is inevitable: a Chinese lunar land grab.

The Outer Space Treaty, a 1967 agreement that forms the basis of international space law, has been signed by every major power on Earth. It establishes that the resources of the moon should be shared and that while sovereign nations may explore or build bases, they cannot claim land as their own and must be open to a wide range of United Nations rules, regulations and inspections.

But a few paragraphs from the end of the treaty, in Article 16, Bigelow points out a detail he believes will radically change the future of space exploration. Any signatory to the treaty can send a letter of withdrawal and 12 months later will have been recognized to have withdrawn from the treaty. "Now, can you think of a particular country that is very impressive, that is extraordinary in its potential and its power and its capacity... and that has made no bones about going to the moon?"

If China pulls a land grab, Bigelow says, America's only option will be to withdraw from the treaty as well and send its own personnel to the moon to start claiming American territory. And they'll have to turn to commercial providers like Bigelow Aerospace to do it. "Without the private sector, this country is not capable of doing that or getting there in time. It will be too little, too late."

posted 10-19-2011 10:42 PM               

It seems to me that Bigelow is trying to sound a wakeup call to the U.S. about the potential for the loss of leadership in space accomplishments rather than fear mongering just for the sake of drumming up business.

posted 10-20-2011 05:48 AM               

quote:

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Originally posted by 328KF:
...does his financial interest in inflatable structures for space/lunar use negate his argument?

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In fact, given China's 'one-demonstration-and-we're-done' approach to mission goals, a 'flags and footprints' lunar program would appear to be much more in line with the nation's modus operandi.

posted 10-20-2011 07:15 AM            

quote:

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Originally posted by 328KF:
It seems to me that Bigelow is trying to sound a wakeup call to the U.S. about the potential for the loss of leadership in space

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posted 10-20-2011 10:19 AM               

Placing that aside, let's for the moment assume Bigelow is right and China does want to claim land on the moon. It might just be a good thing.

It wasn't ideal (from the perspective of the United States' citizenry) to have the Soviet Union place the first satellite in space, but it did establish the precedent for uncontested overflight of other nations.

posted 10-20-2011 05:13 PM              

China is still a long way away from being able to land humans on the moon. They've still yet to master rendezvous. This isn't to question their capacity to do either, just that it's not quite so easy or quick that the rest of the world is going to wake up with a Sputnik surprise one day. They are moving slowly and strategically (but they've definitely got momentum).

I recognize Scott's point about PLA involvement, which bears scrutiny. But even though NASA is civilian, all space technologies are dual-use, and so were ours. Once a human spaceflight program becomes a more distinct endeavor than just mastering rocket/LEO technologies, the dual-use factor becomes progressively less important (though never goes away completely). Human programs also become a LOT more expensive, and China is likely to run into the same sorts of competing budget/development priorities that other countries already have. They can't suspend the rules of political economy.

Finally, the economics of lunar resource exploitation are still unclear, and so if China goes to the moon I think it's a safe assumption (for now - this could change) that it's as a display of "soft power" (as was Apollo), i.e. to garner prestige and admiration for China's technological ability to accomplish that goal. But to then go and claim ownership of lunar territory would immediately destroy any good will that the landing engendered. It would make little sense.

I don't assume that China (or the Russians or the Americans or anyone else for that matter) are completely altruistic in all their endeavors, but assuming they are absolutely definitely up to no good is, at this point, paranoia.