Author
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Topic: Shuttle's future had STS-107 landed safely
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Hart Sastrowardoyo Member Posts: 3445 From: Toms River, NJ Registered: Aug 2000
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posted 07-12-2007 12:03 PM
What was planned for the space shuttles post-STS-107, assuming that Columbia landed safely? Were the shuttles going to be, for that foreseeable future, used to supply and exchange crews on ISS or had a retirement date and a successor been planned at that point (and therefore, STS-107 sped up the shuttle's successor)? |
Ben Member Posts: 1896 From: Cape Canaveral, FL Registered: May 2000
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posted 07-12-2007 02:58 PM
I don't think there was a definitive retirement date, but just priort to STS-107 the manifest went at least to about STS-145 (last one I can remember being listed). STS-120 was the farthest totally manifested flight coming up (which is why STS-121 was the number of the second RTF mission).Most of them were ISS flights but there were a couple of HST flights and an X-37 drop test mission out of Columbia's cargo bay. (Note, you probably know, that STS-118 was the next Columbia flight after 107 and its first ISS flight). I believe they even had HST retrieval listed as a probable future flight. But I am going by memory as best as I can from the manifest I had then. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 07-12-2007 03:50 PM
On March 19-20, 2003, NASA convened a summit for the Shuttle Life Extension Program at the Michoud Facility in New Orleans. The stated goal of the conference was: Assure that all critical assets are in place to safely and efficiently fly the Space Shuttle through at least the middle of the next decade. This summit came before the findings of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and the decision to retire the shuttle fleet. In his foreword to the conference program, then NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe wrote: NASA is moving into a new era. We are looking forward to what our space transportation needs will be over the long term to support NASA's entire mission. As we look to the next century of exploration, we will focus with renewed vigor on the challenges that lie before us and on developing unique capabilities that strengthen America while addressing our critical needs. We developed a new Integrated Space Transportation Plan (ISTP) that provides a roadmap for taking the next step in this journey. This roadmap more closely integrates the Space Station, Space Shuttle, and the planned Orbital Space Plane. It also calls for the Space Shuttle to fly safely and effectively through at least the middle of the next decade until we can field another means of sending humans into space. The SLEP is the means by which we will ensure that the Shuttle can continue to support this key goal, and that NASA can continue to fulfill its mission. |
Hart Sastrowardoyo Member Posts: 3445 From: Toms River, NJ Registered: Aug 2000
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posted 07-12-2007 04:01 PM
quote: Originally posted by Ben: I don't think there was a definitive retirement date, but just prior to STS-107 the manifest went at least to about STS-145 (last one I can remember being listed).
STS-145 would seem to make sense (145-118=27, which is about five or so years in the future, assuming five to six flights per year.)I was curious about post-107 plans because one of the Morton Thiokol booklets I have dated sometime in 1984 did a forecasted shuttle manifest to 1989, listing missions up to STS-91T (that's 20 shuttle missions a year from KSC!) and STS-12V (an additional two missions a year from VAFB)... |
astro-nut Member Posts: 946 From: Washington, IL Registered: Jan 2006
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posted 07-15-2007 04:24 PM
I hope my information will help answer your question about the future of the shuttle program if STS-107 had landed successfully. I had a full launch schedule that listed a lot of flights. I will have to locate the launch manifest in my office somewhere but from what I can remember it went like this: - STS-114/ULF-1(ISS crew exchange)
- STS-115/ISS-12A
- STS-116/ISS-12A.1(ISS crew exchange)
- STS-117/ISS-13A
- STS-118/ISS-13A.1
- STS-119/ISS-15A(ISS crew exchange)
- STS-120/ISS-10A
- STS-122/Hubble Space Telescope repair
- STS-121/ISS-9A.1
- STS-123/ISS-UF4(ISS crew exchange)
- STS-124/ISS-1J/A
- STS-125/ISS-1J
- STS-126/ISS-UF3(ISS Crew exchange)
- STS-127/ISS-1E
- STS-128/Hubble Space Telescope repair
- STS-129/ISS-2J/A
- STS-130/ISS-UF5
- STS-131/ISS-14A
- STS-132/ISS-UF6
- STS-133/ISS-20A
- STS-134/ISS-16A
- STS-138/ISS-UF7
- STS-135/ISS-17A
- STS-136/ISS-18A
- STS-137/ISS-19A
- STS-144/Hubble Space Telescope retrieval
Once I find the schedule I will post the rest, but this is what I can recall from it. I hope this information is useful to you all. |
Ben Member Posts: 1896 From: Cape Canaveral, FL Registered: May 2000
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posted 07-15-2007 04:56 PM
That looks very much as I remember it.I am sure, though, that they had a planned Columbia flight (a short one probably) to take up the X-37 and drop into the atmosphere. I seem to remember it as being STS-12X. X-37B was refitted to fly on an ELV and is going to be tested by Atlas 5 in a year two. |
robsouth Member Posts: 769 From: West Midlands, UK Registered: Jun 2005
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posted 07-16-2007 05:42 AM
Why dedicate an entire shuttle missing to retrieving the Hubble Space Telescope? |
kr4mula Member Posts: 642 From: Cinci, OH Registered: Mar 2006
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posted 07-16-2007 08:25 AM
Aside from the PR value of sticking Hubble in the National Air and Space Museum, I think it was be of great interest to military and civilian space researchers to find out how a satellite weathered that many years in space in its particular orbit. But I believe the really compelling reason was that they were (and still are) concerned about what will happen when that giant hunk of metal reenters, especially uncontrolled. They could avoid that by bringing it down intact on the shuttle. |
astro-nut Member Posts: 946 From: Washington, IL Registered: Jan 2006
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posted 01-23-2016 11:43 AM
Just prior to the STS-107 tragedy, NASA came out with the then-current space shuttle launch manifest for future flights with the shuttle. Does anyone have any information on the launch schedule past the then planned STS-138 shuttle flight? I do remember hearing that the manifest went to STS-200?I have all the information on STS-114 to STS-138 and I am looking for information on flights thereafter. Any help would be great, especially mission target dates and payload/cargo manifest. Editor's note: Threads merged. |
OV-105 Member Posts: 816 From: Ridgecrest, CA Registered: Sep 2000
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posted 01-25-2016 12:14 AM
If 107 had been successful right now we would be seeing four to five flights a year. I think HST would be extended with a couple more service flights and any of the TDRS flight that have been launched on expendables would have had a shuttle flight. Before Columbia, ISS tours were about 90 days where now they are six months. I wonder if there was a plan once the station was completed and crew size moved up to six if they were going to go to a six month tour then? We would have been seeing the three up, three down with an MPLM unless something needed to taken up or brought back. |
DeepSea Member Posts: 68 From: Registered: Jun 2014
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posted 01-25-2016 08:02 AM
As with 51-L, if it hadn't been 107, it would have been another flight at some point. I don't think history and the eventual end of the program would have changed all that much. |
SpaceAngel Member Posts: 307 From: Maryland Registered: May 2010
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posted 09-01-2016 01:06 PM
In May of this year, I met with Scott Hubbard, former member of the CAIB, and I asked him that question, he said that the shuttles were getting old and eventually, it would've been time to discontinue the program, regardless if the disaster never occur. |
DeepSea Member Posts: 68 From: Registered: Jun 2014
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posted 09-02-2016 12:19 PM
Everything has a useful life. I recall reading a magazine article many, many years ago which discussed plans to continue operating the vehicles through 2020, with the journalist noting an internal slogan of "2020 Vision". I've not come across this subsequently. |
p51 Member Posts: 1642 From: Olympia, WA Registered: Sep 2011
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posted 09-02-2016 02:39 PM
What I have always wondered was if no orbiter had been lost, there probably never would have been an Endeavour.So, knowing that, I'd always wondered which museums would have gotten which orbiters in a "post-STS with no losses" world. I'd think the National Air and Space Museum would have wound up with Columbia and whatever orbiter had flown last would probably be sitting where Atlantis is today... |
Cozmosis22 Member Posts: 968 From: Texas * Earth Registered: Apr 2011
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posted 09-02-2016 03:45 PM
Personal preference of locations Canaveral, Houston, Washington DC, and Dayton. If Columbia had not been lost, the shuttles may well have been still flying today. |
Hart Sastrowardoyo Member Posts: 3445 From: Toms River, NJ Registered: Aug 2000
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posted 09-02-2016 07:20 PM
Pre-Columbia, at least one PLT/CDR had been scheduled for a sixth flight. Would any PLT/CDR have gone on to a seventh mission? (Wetherbee has said he left after six to give others a chance for the left seat.) |
mrspacehead Member Posts: 43 From: Registered: Jun 2017
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posted 06-17-2018 09:20 AM
Not sure if this has been posted else where, but I found a manifest on StackExchange dated January 29, 2003 and goes out to STS-147 with a launch date in 2010. This appears to be the most current schedule at the time of the accident.The manifests are here: Page 1 | Page 2. The schedule: - STS-114/Atlantis - ISS-ULF1
- STS-115/Endeavour - ISS-12A
- STS-116/Atlantis - ISS-12A.1
- STS-117/Endeavour - ISS-13A
- STS-118/Columbia - ISS-13A.1
- STS-119/Atlantis - ISS-15A
- STS-120/Endeavour - ISS-10A
- STS-121/Discovery - ISS-ULF2
- STS-122/Atlantis - ISS-1E
- STS-123/Columbia - HST-SM-04
- STS-124/Discovery - ISS-UF3
- STS-125/Atlantis - ISS-UF4
- STS-126/Discovery- ISS-UF5
- STS-127/Atlantis - ISS-UF4.1
- STS-128/Discovery - ISS-UF6
- STS-129/Endeavour - ISS-1J/A
- STS-130/Discovery - ISS-1J
- STS-131/Endeavour - ISS-ULF3
- STS-132/Discovery - ISS-9A.1
- STS-133/Endeavour - ISS-UF7
- STS-134/Discovery - ISS-2J/A
- STS-135/Endeavour- ISS-ULF5
- STS-136/Atlantis - ISS-14A
- STS-137/Discovery - ISS Flight
- STS-138/Endeavour - ISS Flight
- STS-139/Atlantis - ISS Flight
- STS-140/Endeavour - ISS Flight
- STS-141/Atlantis - ISS Flight
- STS-142/Endeavour - ISS Flight
- STS-143/Atlantis - ISS Flight
- STS-144/Columbia - HST-Retrieval
- STS-145/Endeavour - ISS Flight
- STS-146/Discovery - ISS Flight
- STS-147/Atlantis - ISS Flight
It is interesting to see that after STS-136, all flights (except STS-144) are listed simply as "ISS Flight." |
Tom Member Posts: 1597 From: New York Registered: Nov 2000
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posted 06-17-2018 10:18 AM
Based on that projected flight schedule, seems that Columbia would have been "semi-retired," flying only one ISS and two HST flights during that period. |
astro-nut Member Posts: 946 From: Washington, IL Registered: Jan 2006
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posted 07-20-2018 04:08 PM
Just makes you wonder where we would of have been today with shuttle flights if the STS-107 Columbia tragedy never occurred. Would we be around STS-150, STS-160 or even up to STS-200? |
SpaceAholic Member Posts: 4437 From: Sierra Vista, Arizona Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 07-20-2018 04:50 PM
Had STS-107 returned safely, a high probability that another TPS related casualty would have either resulted in catastrophic failure or triggered retirement of the orbiters. No STS-107 incident and the resultant engineering, institutional culture changes, on orbit procedures developed to mitigate TPS failure risks would have probably not seen implementation. |
Hart Sastrowardoyo Member Posts: 3445 From: Toms River, NJ Registered: Aug 2000
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posted 07-20-2018 06:04 PM
If there was enough to keep a six flight a year schedule (6x15=90) so close to STS-200. Once ISS was completed (sked for STS-120?) would they just be doing crew rotations and supplies then, so maybe four flights a year? |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 07-20-2018 06:28 PM
NASA was preparing to announce plans to upgrade the shuttle fleet at a press conference that was on the calendar for mid-February 2003. Part of that plan, if I recall correctly, called for the flight rate to temporarily drop as orbiters were sent back to Palmdale for multi-month servicing periods. |
oly Member Posts: 905 From: Perth, Western Australia Registered: Apr 2015
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posted 07-20-2018 11:41 PM
I think it is a shame that lessons learnt from the original space shuttle system were not developed into a second generation of the design. With new materials, electronics and a better understanding of operational elements, the capability of such a program, combined with the SLS-Orion program and the ISS, would ensure great breadth of capability.The shuttle's ability to retrieve payloads has been lost and there does not seem to be any alternatives on the realistic horizon. What may be revealed by recovery of a large satellite that has spent years on orbit that could help with the design of future projects? Perhaps the retrieval of time expired satellites would help reduce debris in orbit. The original designers of the shuttle had much greater plans for the system. If a space station was operational during the operational period of the shuttle, what type of experiments or equipment may have been tried? Maxime Faget talks about this in his 1998 oral history interview and we have another 20 years of development since then. |
Jim Behling Member Posts: 1463 From: Cape Canaveral, FL Registered: Mar 2010
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posted 07-21-2018 09:26 AM
quote: Originally posted by oly: The shuttle ability to retrieve payloads...
This was of limited utility. Most spacecraft are not in orbits that the shuttle could reach. |
mrspacehead Member Posts: 43 From: Registered: Jun 2017
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posted 07-21-2018 02:36 PM
quote: Originally posted by Robert Pearlman: NASA was preparing to announce plans to upgrade the shuttle fleet at a press conference that was on the calendar for mid-February 2003.
Robert, I know it's been discussed elsewhere that there were plans to make the shuttle fleet (or maybe just Columbia, can't remember) available for commercial missions. Do you know if there any plans to discuss that at this press conference? |
Cozmosis22 Member Posts: 968 From: Texas * Earth Registered: Apr 2011
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posted 07-21-2018 09:36 PM
Not likely the subject of that scheduled press conference as previously planned. Yes, it was seven years ago today that the space shuttle program ended. Wheels stop was at 05:57:54 the morning of July 21, 2011 there at Kennedy Space Center. |
Robert Pearlman Editor Posts: 42988 From: Houston, TX Registered: Nov 1999
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posted 07-21-2018 10:00 PM
quote: Originally posted by mrspacehead: Do you know if there any plans to discuss that at this press conference?
If I recall correctly, it was expected that part of the announcement would be that some shuttle operations were to be turned over to United Space Alliance to run as a commercial endeavor. Most of the focus though was to be on upgrades to the orbiter fleet and launch components to extend the program to 2020 and beyond. |