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Posts: 1597
From: New York
Registered: Nov 2000

posted 09-08-2008 08:52 AM               

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Prior to the Challenger incident, NASA was projecting up to 24 shuttle flights per year.

At that rate, astronauts no doubtedly would be flying at least once a year.

If astronauts remained 8 to 10 years...

Posts: 3445
From: Toms River, NJ
Registered: Aug 2000

posted 09-08-2008 10:28 AM               

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A 1984 Rockwell document I once had projected that by 1989 we'd be flying Mission 89-T - that's 20 missions out of KSC - and an additional four out of Vandenberg every year. From nine in 1985 they were ramping it up to at least 61M and 71B (four Vandenberg flights) in 1986, although with the cancellation already of 61D (Spacelab 4), and the delays in 61C and 51L (as well as getting Vandenberg ready) who know how many flights would have actually happened.

How many flights per astronaut would also depend on how many were selected for post-1986 astronaut classes.

An interesting read is Shuttle Down (and not for a Rick Sternbach cover of Atlantis done with black wing chines and name on the payload bay door, a la Columbia.) Don't have the book handy, but I seem to remember the descriptions of the crew, including one who it was mentioned off-handedly had half a dozen Shuttle missions under her belt.

Posts: 353
From: Chattanooga, TN
Registered: Dec 2007

posted 09-08-2008 11:04 AM            

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Frankly, I think something would have happened. Something would have grounded the fleet. 24 flights a year is a flight every 15 days. Even though that's less than NASA's initial (incredibly) optimistic estimates, it's far above the 9 missions completed in 1985.

The culture of NASA in the late 80's, the financial and political pressure to meet their estimates, and the compromises made (that led to the Challenger disaster) would have led to a Shuttle and her crew being lost.

Posts: 3445
From: Toms River, NJ
Registered: Aug 2000

posted 09-08-2008 12:21 PM               

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I agree, and it would have been interesting to see NASA ramp up from 9 flights to just the 15 or so scheduled for 1986. Remember, Discovery is based in California, so that leaves just three Orbiters at KSC - which in reality translates to two flight orbiters at any one given time, with parts being taken from the landed orbiter being used for the prepped one (or ones, in this timeline.)

Unless they want to take parts from Discovery since she's flying only four times a year - and that would be quite interesting, shuttling (no pun intended) parts back and forth across the U.S.

Had they built a fifth orbiter - early, early plans called for OVs 101 through 105 - then maybe, the flight schedule would be doable (even though it would probably mean basing the fifth orbiter not at VAFB as planned, but at KSC instead.)