posted 12-18-2007 11:53 AM               

This topic amazes me, and I am glad to be studying something that has some relationship to one of my hobbies.

I would be most keen to hear from, and have some input from the readers of the forum with regard to the following.

I would like to know your thoughts with regard to the communication of the possible threat of an NEO approaching the Earth.

Of course a whole number of websites from various organisations and governments exist, but I would be interested in any views that readers here may have...

Would you like to be made aware that there was a real risk of an NEO hitting the Earth,

How would you like to see this information placed into the public domain?

Do you think any of the suggested methods of interception (perhaps beyond us a little now) could ever be used to deflect or destroy an approaching NEO?

posted 12-18-2007 09:24 PM               

Obviously, if we were to have several weeks before an NEO impact there is nothing that could be done presently.

The hopeful part of a solution for the long term is that you do not have to significantly alter a path, and that the earlier action is taken the smaller the correction needs to be to avoid catastrophe.

On the flipside earlier detection and correction requires travelling further and with greater accuracy.

I've heard of ideas such as explosion deflection, huge solar sails, even "conventional rockets" for this purpose. Perhaps the new plasma rocket technology holds promise.

However, say if we were to succeed in deflecting a NEO with a 50% chance of Earth impact. How do we know we have not created a new orbit with a 99% chance of impact years later? Tinkering with these critters should not be left to the hands of reactionary types, but rather the best scientists skilled in astrodynamics and the employed deflection technology.

posted 12-19-2007 12:58 PM               

Clearly NEO's must be mapped and tracked, but we need to be careful how this information is shared with the public. We don't want to scare them into needless panic (as in some other "the sky is falling" issues that I won't mention). However, in case of a true emergency they would need to be informed. But too much information could be bad, especially when we know so little about the paths of these objects as they approach earth.

Secondly, any proposals to deflect NEO's must be scrutinized inside and out to ensure not to make the problem worse. I attended a talk several months ago on climate engineering, and regardless of whether or not you believe that humankind is causing global warming, some of the plans proposed (in many cases by leading well known scientists) just scares me to death.

posted 12-19-2007 01:10 PM               

The point you make about advance warning of a possible/imminent collision is a very interesting one.

It is something I will be writing about, the communications and ethics of publicising such an event will be key parts of my submission and as such I am keen to learn more about peoples views here.

The approach of a NEO is something well outside of our experience of life, it is not something that can easily be related to. The text of one of my books make reference to the radio broadcast "War of The Worlds" made by Orson Wells, in the United States in 1938, which caused a degree of panic.

It would be very difficult to anticipate or estimate the response to such news.

The amount of good amateur astronomers around today, and the quality of their work... would it be possible to keep the likelihood of such an event out of the public arena?

I'm not sure really if an event like this this could be kept a secret for very long.

posted 12-19-2007 01:42 PM               

There are 2 things to think about:

First: Earth-based observatories only look out for NEO of a certain size.

That�s why the 30 meter small asteroid 2004 FH passed by Earth undetected... until 3 days before it passed close to our blue planet.

Second: Based on long-term orbital evolution studies of known NEOs, it is expected that a significant fraction of the NEO population has orbits that are mostly or completely inside the Earth's orbit - the so called Atens and Inner-Earth Objects (IEOs). Objects on such orbits are difficult or even impossible to detect with ground-based telescopes. Several space agencies are studying the feasibility of a space mission to search for Near Earth Objects which are difficult or even impossible to detect from ground-based observatories.

More info:

• Near Earth Asteroid Tracking
• Near Earth Object Program: Current Impact Risks
• Spaceguard UK

posted 01-31-2008 04:50 PM               

To mark the 100th anniversary of the Tunguska event, when an exploding asteroid leveled 2000 square kilometers of Siberian forest, The Planetary Society today kicked off a year-long focus on Target Earth.

Target Earth will focus on a variety of NEO projects supported by The Planetary Society, including the Apophis Mission Design Competition, the Gene Shoemaker Near Earth Object Grants, NEO mission advocacy, and a one-hour HD TV "Daily Planet�" special on asteroids being produced by Discovery Canada.

posted 01-31-2008 05:03 PM               

quote:

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Originally posted by Apollo14LMP:
I am studying Near Earth Objects as a second year university undergraduate...

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