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  If there had been an Apollo 11 scrub... (Page 1)

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Author Topic:   If there had been an Apollo 11 scrub...
Obviousman
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posted 06-13-2009 03:01 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Obviousman   Click Here to Email Obviousman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Going through material for my daily summaries, I found something I didn't know. I thought others might be interested.

If Apollo 11 had been forced to scrub the launch on July 16, 1969, the next launch window was July 18, 1969, which would have meant a landing at Site 3 (rather than Site 2 - Tranquility) using a hybrid trajectory. All further windows would have also been hybrid. They were July 21 (Site 5), Aug. 14 (Site 2), Aug. 16 (Site 3) and Aug. 20 (Site 5). The sun elevation angles for those landings would have been reduced (longer shadows, down from about 11 degrees to 6 degrees) then back to the same for the last window.

Site 2 (Tranquility) was 0 degrees 41 minutes North, 23 degrees 43 minutes East.

Site 3 was in the southwestern part of Sinus Medii. The site location was 0 degrees 21 minutes North, 1 degree 18 minutes West.

Site 5 was in the southeastern part of Oceanus Procellarum. The site location was 1 degree 41 minutes North, 41 degrees 54 minutes West.

A scrub could have altered the way we remember the mission.

"Houston, Medii Base here. The Eagle has landed."

derek
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posted 06-13-2009 03:44 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for derek   Click Here to Email derek     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
And I've always wondered - what would they have named their landing site in the Central Bay?

compass
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posted 06-13-2009 07:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for compass     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Talking about scrubs brings to mind another point I have often wondered about. Prior to Apollo 11's launch Tom Paine told the crew to take NO chances at all and promised them the very next lunar landing attempt if it was necessary for them call the landing off for whatever reason. I have often been suspicious of this. Just how viable was such a proposal? Would senior management have sanctioned this? Would ALL the crew have been fully committed to a second attempt given all the training and preparation involved not to mention the psychological challenge of undergoing a second attempt in full view of the world? Would the 11 crew have taken what Paine was promising them seriously?

I have to also say that the reason(s) for the abort would also impact on this. Once a particular crew had had 'their shot' so to speak I'd have thought Slayton's attitude would have been 'Okay, who's next?' and the next attempt would have been handed to Apollo 12 and so on. In fact Alan Bean has recently mentioned this. Apollo 11, 12, and 13 were all training for the Tranquility site in 1969 so as there was the capability for NASA to have two further landing attempts before the end of the decade.

John Charles
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posted 06-13-2009 09:38 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for John Charles     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I have on videotape a public commemoration decades later at which Pete Conrad declared that Paine also made the same promise to him re: Apollo 12, AND Lovell declared that Paine DID NOT make the same promise to him re: Apollo 13.

As to your second question, the Administrator trumps the Director of Flight Crew Operations by a several steps in the hierarchy. So if Paine wanted Armstrong et al. to fly again, and if they were willing, then it would have happened.

Don't forget, the hierarchy vetoed Slayton's plan to fly Shepard on Apollo 13, and also vetoed Slayton's plan to fly Engle on Apollo 17.

Maybe 12 and 13 were also training for Tranquility just in case the 11 crew was unable to fly -- or refly -- their atempt.

Lou Chinal
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posted 06-13-2009 07:50 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lou Chinal   Click Here to Email Lou Chinal     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by compass:
Would ALL the crew have been fully committed to a second attempt given all the training and preparation involved not to mention the psychological challenge of undergoing a second attempt in full view of the world?
You raise a good point.

Aldrin would have certainly flown again (if they let him). But I'm not so sure of Collins. He has often stated, "I'm glad I got to go...once". If Collins wasn't willing to go, that would have broken up the crew. Now I know what what you are going to say, look at Apollo 13. Apollo 13 had the benefit of two successful landings before them.

Neil was an unknown. Politics would have played a big part. But getting the job done would have played a bigger part.

Lovell would have flown again, after 13. But he was well aware of the knives flying around the astronaut office at the time.

I sure Tom Paine would have a lot on his mind, if Apollo 11 had crashed into the ocean.

Delta7
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posted 06-13-2009 08:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Delta7   Click Here to Email Delta7     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
When Slayton asked Collins if he wanted to continue in rotation after Apollo 11 (as backup Apollo 14 CDR then as Apollo 17 CDR), Collins replied something to the effect of "if Apollo 11 aborts, I'll be the first in line volunteering to fly again, but if we pull this off, I plan to move on."

Lou Chinal
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posted 06-14-2009 02:40 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lou Chinal   Click Here to Email Lou Chinal     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
If Apollo 11 had a launch abort, yes Collins would have another try at it. But if a Apollo 13 type of situation had arose I'm not so sure.

Delta7
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posted 06-14-2009 10:11 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Delta7   Click Here to Email Delta7     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think Collins would have been more inclined to fly a "re-flight" of Apollo 11 a few months later, as opposed to training for another 2-3 years on the Apollo 14/17 assignment. But that's just my opinion.

Max Q
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posted 06-15-2009 12:11 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Max Q   Click Here to Email Max Q     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I couldn't imagine not taking the opportunity to walk on the Moon. Was the training really that onerous?

Mike Dixon
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posted 06-15-2009 01:24 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Mike Dixon   Click Here to Email Mike Dixon     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I guess it speaks to the ambitions of the individual more so than it does the issue of a return flight. For something that ended up only three and a half years distant (and who knows what that might have been in terms of a shorter waiting time had A13 not happened) I certainly would have held my hand up.

Perhaps he felt others might have deserved a shot at it...

tncmaxq
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posted 06-15-2009 06:31 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for tncmaxq   Click Here to Email tncmaxq     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
As far as launch day delays go it is remarkable that there was never a scrub on Apollo once the vehicle was fueled and the crew was on board. Their on time record was much better than Gemini. So when STS-1 got scrubbed on its first attempt I was stunned. I thought it's not supposed to be this way. Apollo and Skylab never canceled on launch day!

Delta7
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posted 06-15-2009 10:21 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Delta7   Click Here to Email Delta7     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Max Q:
I couldn't imagine not taking the opportunity to walk on the Moon. Was the training really that onerous?

I suspect family issues came into play with some people. The training schedule took it's toll on family life and quite a few marriages, and some might have decided that family was more important than ambition.

Collins is one of the few Apollo-era astronauts still married to the same woman as he was back then. So is Frank Borman who could easily have flown a 3rd mission if he wanted.

Delta7
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posted 06-15-2009 12:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Delta7   Click Here to Email Delta7     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Which also leads to another interesting point of speculation (since this is an "If..." thread).

What if Collins had remained on the Apollo 8 crew? Assuming both he AND Borman were of the mind to leave after their second mission, who would have been available to serve as the Apollo 11 backup crew? Lovell would likely have been the Apollo 11 CMP. Would Slayton have promoted Anders to CDR? If so, who would have met the requirement of having a flown astronaut in the CMP position, even on the backup crew? Would Borman and/or Collins have agreed to serve on the Apollo 11 backup crew and then move on, without going on to another prime crew assignment? There weren't a whole lot of other options available to Slayton, other than possibly using McDivitt as soon as he was done with Apollo 9. He would have entered the Apollo 11 training flow late in the game, but having already commanded a LM in flight he probably could have caught up pretty quickly.

Lou Chinal
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posted 06-15-2009 10:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lou Chinal   Click Here to Email Lou Chinal     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
On Jan 9, 1969 the crew for Apollo 11 was announced as Armstrong, Collins, Aldrin. The back-up crew was Lovell, Anders, Haise.

Now it's time to play 'what if'. What if Collins had been on Apollo 8. Slayton didn't know how fast Collins would get back on flight duty. So the team of Armstrong (CDR) Aldrin (CMP) and Haise (LMP) was put together. When Collins came back into the picture Buzz already knew all the CM procedures, so he just stayed it the center seat. That's way the seating arrangement for Apollo 11 launch was Armstrong, Aldrin, Collins. The only flight the CMP did not occupy the center couch.

I wonder what Slayton's plans were for a crew of Apollo 13, if the flight had to be flown in Nov./Dec. 1969?

Would Borman and Lovell have been teamed up again? I think if Slayton had gone to Borman and said the nation needed him, he might have caved.

Fra Mauro
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posted 08-06-2009 08:25 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Fra Mauro   Click Here to Email Fra Mauro     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by compass:
Prior to Apollo 11's launch Tom Paine told the crew to take NO chances at all and promised them the very next lunar landing attempt if it was necessary for them call the landing off for whatever reason. I have often been suspicious of this. Just how viable was such a proposal?
What were the chances that Thomas Paine would have made good on his promise to let the Apollo 11 crew fly on Apollo 12 if they had to abort the landing? I bet Pete Conrad would have loved that move!

Editor's note: Threads merged.

MadSci
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posted 08-06-2009 08:26 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for MadSci     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I'm betting zero. Each CM and LM were different from the rest. This was most evident in the LM. The amount of training required for familiarization with the new LM would have made recycling the crew for the next available launch window pretty tough.

Armstrong himself has been quoted as saying he thought is was a nice thing to be said but he doubted NASA would make good on it if the situation arose.

Machodoc
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posted 08-11-2009 09:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Machodoc   Click Here to Email Machodoc     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The twists and turns are huge. Personally, I think it was probably a "buck up" speech. Assuming no physical problems, can you imagine the physical exhaustion not to mention the natural letdown that might have sunk in after the first failed attempt? Remember, the Kennedy clock was ticking...

Lou Chinal
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posted 08-11-2009 09:40 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Lou Chinal   Click Here to Email Lou Chinal     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Fra Mauro:
What were the chances that Thomas Paine would have made good on his promise to let the Apollo 11 crew fly on Apollo 12 if they had to abort the landing?
I wouldn't put more than a quarter on it.

Duke Of URL
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posted 10-06-2009 10:47 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Duke Of URL   Click Here to Email Duke Of URL     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Maybe it was simply a pro-forma offer.

jasonelam
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posted 06-16-2010 10:42 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for jasonelam   Click Here to Email jasonelam     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by MadSci:
The amount of training required for familiarization with the new LM would have made recycling the crew for the next available launch window pretty tough.
I've read a lot of information involving the promise given to both Neil Armstrong and Pete Conrad by NASA Administrator Thomas Paine: don't take too many risks. If you have to abort your mission, you'll get another shot on the next flight. (paraphrased)

My question is if Apollo 11 had to abort, would they have flown with 12's hardware, and if that succeeded, Pete and Co. would fly with 13's hardware right? If that's the case, how would this have changed flight assignments?

Editor's note: Threads merged.

moorouge
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posted 06-16-2010 01:04 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for moorouge   Click Here to Email moorouge     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I think several are missing an important point when it comes to second chances on '11' in the case of an abort. It depends, surely, at what point the abort call is made.
Isn't it almost certain that if the call came once beyond 'low gate' Armstrong would have gone ahead and attempted a landing regardless of the consequences? If so, where would '12' have been targeted?

Delta7
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posted 06-16-2010 01:15 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Delta7   Click Here to Email Delta7     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
In my humble opinion, if Steve Bales had said "NO GO!" instead of "GO!" during the program alarm just before landing, and Armstrong and Aldrin had aborted the landing, Conrad and Bean would have made the next attempt. It's likely that Armstrong, Collins and Aldrin would have been given the option of going back into the rotation. My gut feeling is that Collins would still have retired, but that Armstrong and Aldrin would have taken Deke up on the offer and initially been assigned as backups to Apollo 13 or 14, then on to 16 or 17. Which brings up another interesting point of speculation: if Aldrin had subsequently been pointed toward flying as LMP on Apollo 17, he likely would have been bumped in favor of Jack Schmitt.

stsmithva
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posted 06-16-2010 06:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for stsmithva   Click Here to Email stsmithva     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by jasonelam:
My question is if Apollo 11 had to abort, would they have flown with 12's hardware, and if that succeeded, Pete and Co. would fly with 13's hardware right? If that's the case, how would this have changed flight assignments?
During Alan Bean's talk at the National Air and Space Museum last fall, he said that once the Apollo 12 crew was named, he knew there was a chance that they might be the first to land on the moon, if Apollo 11 did not do so.

spaceman1953
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posted 06-16-2010 07:03 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for spaceman1953   Click Here to Email spaceman1953     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Another most interesting and thoughtful discussion. My thanks to all the participants.

I have only laid eyes on Mike Collins one time (Chicago parade in August, 1969 does not count, since I was so far away)... but he seemed well-assured that his place in history was pretty firm and that not making a flight after 11 was just fine. Neil and Buzz always look like they would fly anytime, anywhere (even today) that and if NASA had a craft for them to fly in/on.

Just my personal observation!

ASCAN1984
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posted 07-03-2011 04:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ASCAN1984   Click Here to Email ASCAN1984     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by compass:
Prior to Apollo 11's launch Tom Paine told the crew to take NO chances at all and promised them the very next lunar landing attempt if it was necessary for them call the landing off for whatever reason.
The offer made to the Apollo 11 crew before launch that if they some how didn't quite make a landing they would be put on the next available flight to try again is famous in space circles. However it occurred to me last night that I'm not sure of the answers to the following:
  • What next available meant? Is this Apollo 12 launch vehicle and hardware or does it mean a future launch vehicle unsigned to a specific crew would be used?

  • If the first attempt failed who are the crew/individuals losing out? Is it the Apollo 12 crew or a crew further down the line e.g. the Apollo 11 backup crew, a.k.a. Apollo 15?

  • What affect would this second attempt have on the rotation and the program in general?
Editor's note: Threads merged.

GoesTo11
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posted 07-03-2011 04:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for GoesTo11   Click Here to Email GoesTo11     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Is there an unimpeachable source for that anecdote? I've heard it, and still find it hard to believe.

ASCAN1984
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posted 07-03-2011 04:44 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ASCAN1984   Click Here to Email ASCAN1984     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
...when we were about to leave on Apollo 11, Ton Paine flew down to the cape, has dinner with us. And said "look if you guys screw it up, don't worry about it, come on back. Well give you three the next shot at another try at landing. — Mike Collins

GoesTo11
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posted 07-03-2011 05:04 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for GoesTo11   Click Here to Email GoesTo11     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Yeah... right.

I'm sorry, but that sounds like Paine slapping his boys up, trying in a sort of ham-handed way to relieve some of the pressure on them. Would have been interesting to see what would have happened if they had screwed it up...or if they'd been denied their objective by a mechanical or programming failure that wasn't the crew's fault.

If Neil & Buzz hadn't been able to land--for whatever reason--and assuming they made it back, who here really believes that Armstrong, Collins, and Aldrin would have crewed Apollo 12?

Henry Heatherbank
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posted 07-04-2011 05:10 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Henry Heatherbank     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I have never believed it, and it is interesting that by the time of Apollo 13, Paine's made no such offer to Lovell and crew.

Maybe a topic for another thread, but can you just IMAGINE the astro-politics of Paine bumping Shepard and crew of Apollo 14 to give the Apollo 13 guys a second crack at Fra Mauro. The mind boggles ...

But if that HAD occurred (or if the Apollo 11 crew had been recycled to Apollo 12 etc), what happens to the next crew? Would it have caused a ripple effect, where Conrad and crew flew 13 and so on?

That is a serious question: did program management ever give any seriious thought to this, from a crew and mission planning perspective in the Apollo 11-13 time frame (ie; 1969)?

GoesTo11
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posted 07-04-2011 11:30 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for GoesTo11   Click Here to Email GoesTo11     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I'm sorry I missed this discussion earlier. Of course it's all "What if..?", but fascinating nonetheless.

Henry makes a very good point re: Apollo 13. If anyone had earned the chance to walk on the Moon, it was Jim Lovell, with three highly successful milestone missions under his belt. Lovell and crew were denied a landing through no fault of their own, and indeed performed exceptionally in the resulting contingency. If anyone deserved another shot, they did. But they weren't offered one.

I've gotten the impression from their writings and interviews that all three men, while obviously disappointed, each accepted their fate with a test pilot's stoicism: Them's the breaks. Just be glad you walked away, so to speak.

With respect to Collins' and Conrad's claims that Paine offered their crews "mulligans": I wouldn't presume to call either man a liar, but I can't quite believe such a promise would have been made in earnest... or at least in the event, that it would have actually happened.

ilbasso
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posted 07-04-2011 03:32 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ilbasso   Click Here to Email ilbasso     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
All three crews (Apollo 11-13) were training during 1969, and NASA had three vehicles that could have been ready to attempt a landing in the second half of 1969. NASA was taking no chances on landing before the end of the year. If Apollo 11 had failed, Apollo 12 could have been ready to try in September, and Apollo 13 in November.

Once Apollo 11 landed successfully, Apollo 12 was moved back to November and Apollo 13 moved into 1970. I believe that the Surveyor III salvage part of the Apollo 12 plan was also added after Apollo 11's mission was over.

ASCAN1984
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posted 07-05-2011 04:07 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for ASCAN1984   Click Here to Email ASCAN1984     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I am starting to think with all this discussion that Tom Paine's offer was like saying to a neighbor that you would help them paint the garage but when the time comes you will find some excuse not to. Just one of those things you say at the time to put someone's mind at ease but not really mean.

The uproar and repercussions would have been massive if the offer was implemented from the office and the management team and possibly Washington. Did Deke Slayton or Chris Kraft ever find out about this and if so what did they think?

There is an Option B though: that Administrator Paine meant every word and knew of the challenge he would face.

Space Cadet Carl
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posted 07-05-2011 05:55 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Space Cadet Carl   Click Here to Email Space Cadet Carl     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Delta7:
Collins is one of the few Apollo-era astronauts still married to the same woman as he was back then.
And if you ever have the chance to meet Mike and Pat Collins, you will see how their combined sense of humor and their quick wit has helped keep them together all those years. Great couple.

ASCAN1984
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posted 07-06-2011 01:45 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for ASCAN1984   Click Here to Email ASCAN1984     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I was thinking and it is a possibility that the J missions might have been delayed and only one or two might have happened as they would have wanted more time for the hardware to prove itself.

tncmaxq
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posted 07-10-2011 10:39 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for tncmaxq   Click Here to Email tncmaxq     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Space Cadet Carl:
And if you ever have the chance to meet Mike and Pat Collins, you will see how their combined sense of humor and their quick wit has helped keep them together all those years. Great couple.
During the book signing Mike Collins did along with Aldrin and Bean at the National Air and Space Museum during the Apollo 11 40th anniversary, Pat Collins greeted some of us who had been standing in line for hours. She thanked us for our patience. Classy lady.

I think Collins, Borman, Lovell, Anders and Duke are about the only Apollo guys married to their original wives.

ilbasso
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posted 11-04-2011 02:43 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for ilbasso   Click Here to Email ilbasso     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I asked Dick Gordon today about the reports that Paine had promised the 11 crew another shot if they weren't successful. Gordon said he had heard that rumor before, but he speculated that there would have been resignations in the astronaut corps if they had pulled something like this - it just wasn't the way things worked. "If you love that crew so much, then they can fly all the damn missions from now on, because we quit!"

Fra Mauro
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posted 06-13-2017 08:58 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Fra Mauro   Click Here to Email Fra Mauro     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Wouldn't Nixon have to agree with this?

Robert Pearlman
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posted 06-13-2017 09:24 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Robert Pearlman   Click Here to Email Robert Pearlman     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Nixon's only influence might be like Kennedy's over John Glenn, expressing to NASA that the crew was too important politically to risk losing on a spaceflight. But in this case, the opposite might be true — if there was a political win to be had, it might be to give the crew a second chance, demonstrating the "American spirit" of not giving up until successful.

And unlike Kennedy with Glenn, Nixon wasn't looking to recruit any of the Apollo 11 crew into politics.

NukeGuy
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posted 06-14-2017 10:32 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for NukeGuy     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I wonder if Armstrong would have been interested in being recycled to a later crew if Apollo 11 had aborted and the Apollo 12 crew subsequently made the first successful landing.

Armstrong was first and foremost a pilot. He even remarked that the landing was the success of Apollo 11. Not being the first man to walk on the moon.

Fra Mauro
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posted 06-14-2017 11:40 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Fra Mauro   Click Here to Email Fra Mauro     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Can you imagine what the critics of the Gemini 8 emergency landing (not many!) would have said if Armstrong aborted the Eagle's landing?


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