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Author
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Topic: The "What if..." question
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Ashy
Member Posts: 157
From: Preston, England
Registered: Mar 2004
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posted 06-02-2004 06:51 AM
   
I have seen posted on this site over some time the 'What if' questions. Examples of these include "What if...the Challenger accident hadn't happened...they hadn't cancelled the last Apollo missions and who would crew them ...the NASA budgets hadn't been cut" to name but a few.Here then is my question, (hopefully not posted recently).
WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED TO THE US SPACE PROGRAM IF SHEPARD HAD REACHED SPACE FIRST? For instance, would Apollo have been needed and taken place, (there being no political need to beat the Soviets). Would we still be waiting for the first man, (or woman) to walk on the moon? Would manned space flight have fizzled out, (both the US and Soviets relying on robotics etc). Just a thought!
Si |
ColinBurgess
Member Posts: 2043
From: Sydney, Australia
Registered: Sep 2003
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posted 06-02-2004 07:25 AM
Realistically, I'd have to deduce that things would not have been very different at all. Had Shepard beaten Gagarin into space, America would have been exultant until the time soon after when a Soviet cosmonaut went up and completed a single orbit of the Earth to top Shepard's feat. The same alarm bells would have rung, and I feel sure exactly the same space race would have ensued. The only difference I could see is that an American would have been first in space, although the Soviet Union would have set their propaganda machine in operation to pooh-pooh the effort as a measly, hurried slingshot into space and back, and declare it was nothing when compared to their monumental feat of an orbital manned mission. |
Ashy
Member Posts: 157
From: Preston, England
Registered: Mar 2004
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posted 06-03-2004 07:24 PM
I can see your point, but do you think there would have been such an urgency to beat the soviets, once America had already beaten them into space, suborbital followed by orbital after Gagarin.
If it was the Russians doing the chasing do you think the US would then have committed the billions they did to get to the moon first, (before the decade was out)? Do you think that the Russians would have been bold enough to stump up the cash and succeed in getting to the moon. |
ColinBurgess
Member Posts: 2043
From: Sydney, Australia
Registered: Sep 2003
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posted 06-04-2004 06:11 AM
I honestly don't think Shepard being first would have changed anything. America would have been understandably smug about being first to put a man into space for only as long as it took for the Russians to send Gagarin up on an orbital flight. That feat would have sent NASA into an immediate tailspin, and the same pressure to beat the Russians, now claiming supremacy in space, would have followed. I think America knew it was now involved in a high-stakes race to the moon, and Kennedy would still have made his famous commitment. |
spaced out
Member Posts: 3117
From: Paris, France
Registered: Aug 2003
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posted 06-04-2004 06:38 AM
It always seemed to me that suborbital flights are a poor cousin to the real deal - putting an object into orbit. Had Shepard been launched before Gagarin the world would still have been much more impressed with the orbital flight, and the race would still have been on.What if a month before Sputnik the US had launched a similar device sub-orbitally? One beep from 'space' and then back down to earth... I don't think it would have taken anything away from Sputnik. The first private suborbital flight coming up later this month will also be a great achievement, but until they reach orbit it's still just a testing ground for technology. |
DavidH
Member Posts: 1217
From: Huntsville, AL, USA
Registered: Jun 2003
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posted 06-04-2004 10:17 AM
I agree with Colin that it would have resulted in very few substantial changes.
One possible difference, though:
If Shepard had launched first, would the U.S. have been as public about the launch as it was? Since the U.S. was coming in second place, and with a less impressive feat, to what extent was doing it in front of the eyes of the world a way of making it more impressive to the international community?
Also, if Sheparrd's flight had been undertaken as publicly in that scenario as it was in reality, would that have put pressure on the Soviets to be more open about their space program as well?------------------
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